Author Topic: 2012 Draft  (Read 22679 times)

craig

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Re: 2012 Draft
« Reply #900 on: October 19, 2012, 08:09:45 am »
John Arguello notices what's obvious:  college pitchers have a high disappointment rate.  Lots of guys look good in college and throw very hard, while pitching once a week.  But will his arm have the same velocity and life years later after grinding out starts every 5th day for 5 or 8  years?  Not usually.

Suppose you scout and evaluate well, and are able to identify both a pitcher and a hitter who really do prove to be excellent players.  The hitter is much more likely to remain excellent for a long time than is the pitcher.  You can identify a really good pitcher, but will he still have the physical qualities to remain really good 4, 6, 8, and 10 years out?  At #2, all ties go to the players, IMO. 

There's a flip side, though.  College pitchers are much easier to scout.  Even if the excellent pitcher doesn't remain good for especially long, getting a good pitcher for a few years is better than mis-projecting a player who never ends up being very good. 

The A's selected Mark Mulder ahead of Corey Patterson.  After three excellent big-league seasons Mulder's great arm was wearing out; by year 4 his arm was just average, and by year six he was totally cooked.  As excellent as Mulder was for three seasons, an excellent player for ten years would have been preferable.  But three excellent years of Mulder was still a lot better than the 2-3 months of excellence that the Cubs got out of Corey Patterson. 
« Last Edit: October 19, 2012, 08:11:44 am by craig »