Bleacher Bums Forum

As a former professional negotiator, I can assure you that all negotiations are games, and a good understanding of game theory is extremely useful.  And I did not mean to use "game the system" in a negative sense.  Any time you have rules or systems, any sensible person learns those rules and uses them to their own advantage whenever possible.  A person that uses IRS rules to ensure that he pays the least amount of tax legally is gaming the system, as he should.

And you are correct, the current negotiations are a game.  I merely pointed out that in this particular game, if you use the wrong strategy, the penalties for losing can be substantial.

I think it will be very rare for high draft picks to go unsigned in the current system.  The cost to the team of going over the cap is prohibitive, I doubt that ever happens.  And no organization wants to not get their top pick.  For the players, no player wants to miss his payday, whether it's a junior who's have reduced leverage next year, or a HS player who'll need to wait years.  I think the pressures to come to terms are mutually reinforcing. 

The main action takes place, I think, before a draft pick is made.  The team knows what it can do, the player says what he'll need, and the team decides from there.  I think that's why all these deals, whether it's the 20+ guys the Cubs have already agreed with or the 1st-rounders like Bryant and Gray and Appel, can all go down without a lot of suspense.  You get the price in advance, and you don't buy what you aren't able/willing to pay. 

Appel had determined that he wouldn't sign for less then elite cash last year; none of the teams who had it considered him worth it, so they didn't pick him.  Pittsburgh made a surprising selection, presumably thinking that he'd cut his price, and they were mistaken.  I assume the only time things get messy is when a team like Pittsburgh doesn't take a prospect at his word and thinks it will be able to get him for a lot less.  Didn't work in that case, and I don't imagine that's a risk teams will often take. 

Thanks. 

Apparently Poncedeleon has unsigned.  He'd apparently tweeted that he was signing, and had seemed to be tweeting that he was flying down to Mesa, etc.  Apparently now that's off and he's going to Houston.  Failed physical, I wonder?  Weird. 

Thanks. 

Apparently Poncedeleon has unsigned.  He'd apparently tweeted that he was signing, and had seemed to be tweeting that he was flying down to Mesa, etc.  Apparently now that's off and he's going to Houston.  Failed physical, I wonder?  Weird. 

Could be a problem with the birth cerfticate.

Skulina signes for $800,000.  $300,000 over slot.

Skulina signes for $800,000.  $300,000 over slot.

Thanks, Blue, fascinating.  Will be really interesting to see what the numbers are for Masek and Frazier.  I expect that all three of Skulina/Masek/Frazier are variably overslot, and I assume 20-year-old Garner as well. 

There is something of an assumption that college picks will take slot.  But I think there may be a lot of guys who figure they have the ability to move up a bunch in the draft with a good year.  Frazier could take slot in the $200's; but he might also figure that if he worked things out he might be a 2nd or even first rounder next year. 

MOney doesn't always reflect management scouting on a guy, but perhaps sometimes it does, too. 

All that is true.  But these kids also know that the vast majority of those drafted never even sniff the majors, and their signing bonus is all they will ever get from baseball.  For the vast majority of high school signees, they would probably have been better off going through college if they think they have a good chance of increasing their signing bonus.

Unless they sign out of high school for life-changing money.  $100,000 isn't life changing money.  $1,000,000 probably is.  The point between probably moves depending upon the specific player.