Bleacher Bums Forum

the obvious change is that they could tell the Astros that they would not sign for less than 10 million dollars.  If Boras has the reputation of being honest, it might cause the Astros to pass on him.

an agent like Boras wouldn't be very effective if he was known to lie in negotiations.

Keith Law draft list from today.  His top 7 in order:

1. Mark Appel
POS: RHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: Stanford

Analysis: The Pirates selected Appel with the No. 8 overall pick last June, but couldn't come to terms on a deal. He chose to return to Stanford for his senior year and one last shot at Omaha, a decision that, so far, looks like a sound baseball one too, as he has come out firing bullets, with an improved slider and more aggressive approach overall.

2. Sean Manaea
POS: LHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 235
School: Indiana State

Analysis: Manaea lit up the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting 96 mph with a plus slider, but has been a grade below that so far this spring. I'll see him against Minnesota's Tom Windle on Friday night at the Metrodome.

3. Austin Meadows
POS: OF
B/T: L/L
HT: 6-3
WT: 200
School: Grayson (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Meadows is one of the few high-upside athletes in this draft, a potential five-tool player who, like most players of that ilk, faces the strongest questions about the present and future caliber of his hit tool.

4. Ryne Stanek
POS: RHP
HT: 6-4
WT: 190
School: Arkansas

Analysis: Stanek has been up to 96-97 again this spring and misses a lot of bats, although his heavy reliance on the slider is a concern for when he heads into pro ball.

5. Austin Wilson
POS: OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-5
WT: 245
School: Stanford

Analysis: Wilson suffered a stress reaction in his elbow in the first weekend of the season and hasn't played since, although he should be back by the time Stanford begins conference play. He remains the draft's best shot for a complete position player from the college ranks, someone who can hit, hit for power, and provide value on defense.

6. Kris Bryant
POS: 3B/OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: San Diego

Analysis: Bryant came out swinging, hitting eight home runs in San Diego's first 17 games and slugging .897 on the season, although there's still a lot of skepticism about his ability to stay at third base, which just raises the standard for his bat.

7. Clint Frazier
POS: OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-1
WT: 190
School: Loganville (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Frazier has the best bat speed in this draft class but is probably maxed out physically and will play a corner in pro ball -- right if his arm fully recovers from a recent bout of tendinits, left if it doesn't -- so the entire bet here is on his hit tool. He has also started the season strong in front of the right people, including two home runs on Tuesday in a heavily scouted matchup against Meadows.

BA has an article up on Frazier and Meadows for subscribers if anyone would be so kind as to post it.

Law strikes me as someone who wants to be seen as thinking outside the box or going against conventional wisdom. Again I go back to his certainty that Vogelbach wasn't near ready for a promotion late last year. I'd be floored if any other draft "expert" had Frazier anywhere near that low.

I have to admit, there are times I think Keith Law is a dumb person's idea of a smart person.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?822175-2013-Chicago-Cubs-Draft-Class-amp-Signings

Law likes high ceiling and well-roundedness.  From his comments, it sounds like he does not see Frazier as a well-rounded player, which limits his ceiling because he will have to play a corner spot.  Sounds like he likes his bat a lot ("best bat speed in this draft class"), but doesn't see him excelling anywhere else.  Doesn't seem unreasonable to drop him a few spots for that. 

Here's more from his ESPN chat yesterday, just FWIW:

Kevin (Florida)
You aren't all in on the Clint Frazier bandwagon? Could he really fall to the Red Sox at 7th?

Klaw  (12:13 PM)
I have him in the top ten - that's pretty "all in" for me. He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.

He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.

Reminds me of all that potential in 6-6 Ryan Harvey. Not saying Meadows is anything like Harvey but this height issue is ridiculous in my opinion.

I like Appel.  But if he stumbles, the mascot better watch out.

....Of course, with a position player, you have to hit and the athletic-type busts are guys who, as it turns out, just don't hit.  Hard to project down the road whether a guy who can now hit will actually hit in the future against real competition. ...

I agree with your post.  But, the part about hitting is the crucial part.  If the two guys are equivalent hitters, then obviously the tie-break goes to Meadows if he's better defensively and projects more power and speed. 

But good scouts are good at projecting hitters.  Meadows seems to be hitting less well than Frazier for the moment; is there some scouting reason to think that Frazier might hit better later as well?  Or is there some reason to think that Frazier is more likely to not translate when he's facing serious velocity and movement?  I have no idea, but that's the job for the scouts.  And if Frazier looks like he's a truer hitter and has true power presently and doesn't need to build up, then I don't care if he's a corner. 

I'm partly thinking about Cub picks/failures.  Sometimes you can't foresee why a guy will fail against premium pitching.  I don't think Corey or Kelton had any failure flags.  But in other cases, you already know what a guy does now won't work, (Harvey), and he'll need to be fixed.