Author Topic: 2015 MLB Draft  (Read 16379 times)

Jes Beard

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #45 on: April 28, 2015, 02:00:19 pm »
I personally think the Cubs were very lucky the draft fell the way it did for them and they ended up with hitters.

If you mean you think the Cubs were very lucky the front office is bright enough to avoid spending a high first round draft pick on a pitcher instead of a position player, unless the pitcher prospect is wildly better, because of the greater injury risk to the pitcher, I have to agree with you.  They are very lucky they are not foolish.

Chris27

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2015, 06:50:37 am »
Callis looks at the top of the draft. Bad news is that it's seen as significantly weaker than last year's.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120976524/jim-callis-brendan-rodgers-stands-out-but-top-draft-pick-isnt-settled

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #47 on: April 29, 2015, 07:48:02 am »
The top end talent is weaker.  The depth of the draft is fine, especially high school arms.

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #48 on: April 29, 2015, 09:01:33 am »
Pretty sure they'll take who they think is the best player, even if it is a pitcher that will break your heart with injuries.

This is semantics.  BVA, best value, perhaps more accurate than BPA.  I think they'll pick the guy they project as the best value, and obviously risk factors in.  If they take a pitcher, I assume that will require that his projected value is superior enough to justify the heightened risks. 

But, picking at #9 is a very different risk analysis from picking 2 and 4 the last two years.  With Bryant and Schwarber, I think they had scouted those guys well enough to be very confident that they'd hit.  The risk that they wouldn't hit was low. 

But at #9, there will perhaps be significant risk that hitters won't hit.  Kyle Tucker, Nick Plummer, Daz Cameron, Trenton Clark, Garrett Whitley, these are some nice prospects and perhaps will hit very well.  But the risk differential between the hitters who'll be there at #9 versus the pitchers may not be that substantial.  The injury-to-pitcher risk may really not be that much more problematic than the risk that the hitters won't hit. 

That's partly where Ian Happ, Swanson, and Bregman fit.  Presumably Swanson and Bregman will be gone, but who knows?  But Happ seems like he might profile as a pretty low-risk guy.  And, he's young for his class, he won't turn 21 till the end of the minor league season.  Cubs will scout, obviously.  But from the scouting reports, he seems like the kind of guy the Cubs might like:  a good hitter who may not have any signature tools, but perhaps is pretty good at everything. 

Who knows, I don't think at this point last year there were a lot of us seriously thinking Schwarber, and none of the draft guru's were including him in discussion for top-5.  But, the sub-slot signing really combined a guy they wanted with discretionary dollars.  Maybe the Cubs really like Kevin Newman, for example, and think he'll be a good though not great major leaguer; but can sign him for #25-slot money instead of #9 cash.  Maybe they'd then be able to sign a couple of million-dollar pitchers in rounds 2-4, like last year?  Get a safe low-risk pure hitter, and then spread the risk over three talented-but-risky HS pitchers instead of focusing all the risk on a single HS pitcher at #9? 

Who knows.  Should be fun. 

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #49 on: April 29, 2015, 09:32:45 am »
I agree with Craig.  Thanks for not mentioning DJ Stewart, I might lose my mind.

StrikeZone

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #50 on: April 29, 2015, 01:26:03 pm »
Honestly, I have no idea who most of those guys are because I've been paying attention to the Major League team this season.  This time last year, I was looking forward to the draft already.

ETA: Well, looking forward to the draft AND paying attention to the minors.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #51 on: April 29, 2015, 03:48:50 pm »
Jason McLeod on the draft:

So far it is kind of a wild card draft this year. We are picking nine and there have been a lot of injuries to some of the college pitchers that were all projected to go in the top half of the draft. So I think a lot of teams are weighing the injury factor and I think Brady Aiken is still a wild card to see where teams are going to slot him in. It doesnt have as deep of a college position player group as weve seen in prior years. I think the high school class is strong overall, but with where we are picking there are just a lot of variables for us to consider. Last few years weve taken the college position player. I cant sit here and say that type of guy is there right now for us. We are out there scouting. The boys are pounding the pavement and were confident in the process that were going to get the player that we like. Its just, as a total draft year, it is probably down a little bit from prior years and I think a lot of it does have to do with some of the injuries to the pitchers. ...I think you have to weigh the {TJ} risk certainly. I mean just draft history will tell you that high school pitching is a risk in and of itself as you guys know. I think now when you look at the injury, now you have to add that to risk factor so youre weighing the risk versus the upside and what you think the impact potential could be of this player and youve got to take that into consideration when you make that decision. I think the Nationals are probably really happy they took [Lucas] Giolito when they knew he might have some arm issues. Funny thing actually I just saw him last week pitch against a Canadian team down in Florida and he was great. I think you have to you always weighing that risk factor. If you think you can hit on a guy its kind of like a lottery ticket or sorts but its a risky lottery ticket.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2015, 02:44:57 pm »
Callis/Mayo have a mock draft up for first 10 picks.  Each has Cubs taking a college pitcher.

Callis has Cubs taking Jon Harris; Mayo has Cubs taking Carson Fullmer.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/121103208/jim-callis-jonathan-mayo-project-top-10-picks-in-2015-draft

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #53 on: April 30, 2015, 03:13:54 pm »
Fulmer is a guy I want to love.  His stuff is amazing.  The big red flag for me is the effort with his delivery and the lack of command it causes. 

Harris is from the same college as Pierce Johnson.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #54 on: April 30, 2015, 03:58:41 pm »
Law addressed Fullmer in his chat today:

Q: Given that Carson Fulmer holds his stuff late into games and has, knock on wood, never had injury problems, is there a non-zero chance he can be a starter? It seems like sometimes there are just funky guys that it works for (Sale, Lincecum), so could you see a team in the top 15 take a chance on him thinking he can start?

Klaw  Two questions. Do I think he can start? Absolutely not. Incredibly violent, max-effort delivery that currently has him with 40 fastball command. Yes, he holds his stuff and hasn't been hurt, but he also pitches every seventh day, and Vandy handles their arms as well as any program in the country. Do I think someone will take him in the top 15? I'd give you even money on that.

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #55 on: April 30, 2015, 04:09:31 pm »
I watched a couple Vandy games when he was pitching.  His delivery made my left arm hurt.  He was also frustrating to watch, just zero clue where the ball was going. 

People want to compare him to Sonny Gray, but Gray's delivery is much smoother.  I really like Fulmer's pitches, it is just so much change is needed in his delivery (Vandy improved it from high school) that you just do not know how well he would adjust.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2015, 04:15:43 pm by CUBluejays »

Chris27

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2015, 05:07:23 pm »
Fullmer reminds me of a RH Billy Wagner. Not sure how he can be a long-term starter.

Dave23

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #57 on: May 01, 2015, 05:52:28 pm »
Keep an eye out for Justin Hooper...big LHP from De La Salle in CA...UCLA commit. His stock is rising.

6'7, 230 with big velocity and promising secondary pitches...

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #58 on: May 01, 2015, 07:25:51 pm »
Hooper reminds me of Tyler Koleck.

Koleck stats in A ball so far

3.63 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 7.37 K/9, 3.63 BB/9

Chris27

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #59 on: May 01, 2015, 07:31:28 pm »
That slinging delivery screams command/control issues to me.

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/18765768/v37009203/draft-report-justin-hooper-hs-pitcher