Author Topic: 2015 MLB Draft  (Read 16142 times)

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #795 on: June 25, 2015, 08:03:25 am »
Put differently, between their slot values and the other money, if Morrison is a $5K guy they'll be around $2.45 combined to spend on both Hudson and Wilson (and any 3rd-day overslots, which of course will be none.)   Split it equally, $1.2 each?  $1.1 Hudson and $1.35 for Wilson? 

I wonder if Dewees didn't go a little higher than they'd hoped; maybe the goals had been to get Wilson to $1.5? 

But yeah, I agree they are pretty good at making things work out.  I suspect that everything is perhaps easier than in the old days.  Now it seems the player sets the price, the team decides, and then adjusts accordingly.  Probably not nearly as uch actual negotiating. 

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #796 on: June 25, 2015, 02:13:02 pm »
Cubs announce Wilson signing---no bonus info yet.

davep

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #797 on: June 25, 2015, 03:56:30 pm »
When you look at the complexity, it is surprising that they don't have more problems such as that which happened with Houston/Aiken/Nix last year.  You have to be extremely careful not to make promises until you are absolutely sure everything is going as expected.  You can't assume the player is signed until the medical reports and all other possibilities are completed.

I would imagine that the greatest danger is drafting someone because he will sign for 5 thousand dollars and then have him demand 50,000 after the draft.  You have to decide whether to make a point or forgo the slot money.  But unless the prospect is certain that he isn't going to make it to the majors anyway, it is probably suicide to **** off the guys that are going to decide whether or not to promote you in the future.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #798 on: June 25, 2015, 04:18:08 pm »
It's a one company town. 

There's only one MLB and one club at a time with rights to the player. There is no market out there for the player other than the atypical Daz Cameron-type situation.

So, where there is no real marketplace, folks tend to honor a gentlemans' agreement---if they want to work. And the club has to honor agreements to do business, other than atypical Aiken-type situation.

In a real market, think we'd see more of these pre-draft $$$ understandings fall away. Happens way more often in the international players market. Yeah, interesting how the draft $$  mosaic fits together. Last step for Cubs is fitting together Hudson at #3 and the last underslot TCU guy.

davep

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #799 on: June 25, 2015, 05:31:22 pm »
The international market ls less encumbered than the US market, but even there, there are restrictions (IFA allotments, age requirements, "signing years" etc.). 

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #800 on: June 25, 2015, 08:57:22 pm »
Wilson signed for $1.3 million.

According to Callis the Cubs have $1.1 million for Hudson.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 09:09:42 pm by CUBluejays »

JeffH

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #801 on: June 25, 2015, 09:25:42 pm »
If Morrison signs for $59,205, they'll have exactly $1,100,000 for Hudson.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #802 on: June 25, 2015, 10:01:11 pm »
$ 1.3  for Wilson is just about slot for Cubs second round pick #47 ($1.292.1)---the Dewees pick.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #803 on: June 25, 2015, 10:06:33 pm »
Money left for Hudson is about slot value #52/53---mid-second round money.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #804 on: June 27, 2015, 01:21:16 am »
The $2,000 bonus by Cubs to the VCU 10th rounder is the lowest top 10 rounds bonus paid to any player, so far.

Think Cubs had the honors last year too.

Dodgers have two guys at $2,500.

No other organization has had the temerity to go under $5,000.  Just Cubs and Dodgers.

Understand the way, way underslot strategy for signing the overslot guys etc. etc. etc. etc. but is it really necessary to squeeze the turnip on these poor schmucks to get them down from $5,000 to $2,000?  28 other organizations don't seem to be doing this.

Eventually, Theo is going to draft a guy 8th round who pays the Cubs $2,000 and Theo will argue Cubs get full underslot value + $2,000. 

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #805 on: June 27, 2015, 09:15:13 am »
https://twitter.com/jpmorrison18/status/614260428856672256

Morrison has apparently signed, although whether he's gotten far enough, don't know.  "Officially" in the twitter stream, but whether that means passed the physicals and it really is official or not, don't know. 

Once he's locked in, then they'll be able to finalize Hudson as well.   

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #806 on: June 27, 2015, 09:28:48 am »
I wonder what college picks and college seniors taken on the 3rd day actually get.  The "slot" is $100K max.  Do guys routinely get that?  Or, is that not really true at all?  A couple get $100K (Austyn Willis), and one or two HS overslots get $200 or $275 (Clifton and the Missouri CF.), and maybe some more interesting college juniors get that (Twomey and Rose, maybe?).   But are many/most 3rd day signings, particularly college guys, and especially college seniors, getting way, way below $100K? 

The reason I ask is because *IF* 3rd day college guys, including seniors, are routinely getting $30-$50-$100K, I wonder why a senior would say yes in round 8?  Why doesn't Morrison say, "No, thanks, Theo.  I'm glad you believe in me to the tune of $5K, but I'm thinking tomorrow somebody will believe in me to the tune of $30K or $50K"?.  "Maybe even your guy McLeod."   Why say yes to a $5K deal on Tuesday if there's a reasonable shot to get an extra $20K or $40K or maybe $95K the next day? 

Seems to only makes sense if 3rd day college guys are likewise getting $5K deals?  Somehow I hadn't imagined that's really how low all the other teams are going on 3rd day guys, but maybe it is.  Simplest explanation is often the best explanation, I guess. 

Maybe some status; guys do want to be able to say they were drafted in the top-10 rounds, even if at expense of money? 

Or, maybe is there some other "workaround", 'beat-the-system" kind of compensation?  Perhaps not cheating; I expect the Cubs are pretty careful and would not be doing anything illegal on this, but maybe some loophole they have found?  Something special that they include in the 2nd-day senior-sign packages to compensate the player? 
*If/when we release you or you retire, we'll include a non-standard $50K severance package into your contract? 
*We'll pay you $6K salary per month, compared to standard $2K salary? 

Just seems curious that guys agree to such small deals if they had a chance to get better deals the next day. 

JR

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #807 on: June 27, 2015, 09:42:41 am »
I think a lot of the college seniors taken later don't get any kind of signing bonus at all, actually.  They just sign for the opportunity to play.  I'm pretty sure I've read that someplace before.

That VCU guy might have been someone who ordinarily wouldn't have even gotten a signing bonus.

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #808 on: June 27, 2015, 10:04:20 am »
Baseball America had a story about seniors and the draft. The past 10 round guys typically get $5,000 or less

davep

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #809 on: June 27, 2015, 10:52:07 am »
It is one of the area scout's job to determine what is needed to sign a particular prospect.  From what we have read, it is normal on draft day (all three days) to call and ask the prospect if he will sign for XXX dollars.  and to pass on that prospect if he says no.  A college senior that is called in the 8th round and asked if he will sign for 8,000 dollars has to decide if it is better to be drafted in the 8th round and be guaranteed a chance to prove himself, or say no and hope for more money being drafted in later rounds but run the risk of not being drafted at all, and begin his career at McDonalds rather than at Mesa.  In many cases, McDonald's signing bonus is substantially less than 2,000 dollars.

The amounts after round ten are not really "slot" money, but "cap" money.  After the 20th round or so, there are probably very few college players that sign for as much as  100,000 dollars.  While the high school players can not only get 100.000 dollars, but also a scholarship worth much more than that (regardless of how many actually take advantage of it).

The college seniors that the Cubs and other teams are taking in round 6 through 10 are being taken BECAUSE they are willing to sign for the small amounts.  They are not being cheated because they get so little.  They have made the decision that it is better for them to be certain to sign with someone at that amount than to take the gamble of waiting to try to get more, but run the risk of being unsigned and careerless.

By the way, some do get more.  According to one kid the Cubs signed (Mancini or somebody) he told them he would sign merely for a plane ticket to Mesa, and the Cubs gave him a couple of thousand in addition.

As long as the ethics are concerned, as long as there are rules, and club has to play by those rules, there is nothing wrong with a strategy that allows the team to maximize it's benefits consistent with those rules.