Author Topic: 2015 MLB Draft  (Read 16707 times)

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #630 on: June 10, 2015, 01:53:21 pm »
DJ Wilson, CF. ...   Fangraphs
Hit 20/45+
Game Pwr 20/40
Raw Pwr   45/45
Speed      60/60
Field         50/55
Arm         45/45

Pretty obvious the Cub scouts have some different scores in their scouting boxes than Fangraphs does.  Nothing other than speed looks particularly worthwhile on that report, and those Fangraphs scores don't make you the best $1.5-buy available. 

I'd kinda assuming the Cubs might put a higher projection grade on the fielding than 55, and almost certainly a higher hitting than 20/45+.  I'd guess they'd need to project hitting to at least 50 to be the best $1.5 value available.   

Cubsin

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #631 on: June 10, 2015, 02:05:29 pm »
It still seems bizarre to me that their entire draft strategy seems to be based on signing a fourth-round pick who was expected to go somewhere between round 4 and 6 for three times his slot value.

StrikeZone

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #632 on: June 10, 2015, 02:11:21 pm »
Now six straight college seniors.  Sure seems like they're saving money to me.

StrikeZone

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #633 on: June 10, 2015, 02:11:42 pm »
And just as I post that they take a high school player.

ETA: Jared Padgett 6'3" LHP (starter) Mississippi State commit out of Florida.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2015, 02:15:55 pm by StrikeZone »

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #634 on: June 10, 2015, 02:24:56 pm »
Now six straight college seniors.  Sure seems like they're saving money to me.

Organizational depth.

Pretty obvious the Cub scouts have some different scores in their scouting boxes than Fangraphs does.  Nothing other than speed looks particularly worthwhile on that report, and those Fangraphs scores don't make you the best $1.5-buy available. 

I'd kinda assuming the Cubs might put a higher projection grade on the fielding than 55, and almost certainly a higher hitting than 20/45+.  I'd guess they'd need to project hitting to at least 50 to be the best $1.5 value available.   

He's a tough grader.  The first set is how he would project as major leaguer today, so ignore that.  The second set for hit the highest grade he gave out was 55 and only 3 of them.  His speed grades are also lower than MLB and that should be a fairly straight forward they run this fast. 
« Last Edit: June 10, 2015, 02:30:02 pm by CUBluejays »

JR

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #635 on: June 10, 2015, 02:26:25 pm »
Round 26 Pick . . .

120 Jared Padgett lhp  Graceville (Fla.) HS Fla. 23
Scouting
 

Scouting Report:

Padgett was a multi-sport star at tiny Graceville High in the Florida panhandle. He became the first Tiger to sign with a Division I baseball program when he committed to Mississippi State this year and is now poised to become the school's first player ever to be drafted. Padgett has seen his profile rise this spring as he’s flashed above-average stuff to go with his projection. His fastball has been up to 94 mph, though he typically sits at 90-91 mph. His curveball is his best secondary offering. At its best, it's a hard, downer curve with plus potential. While Padgett has some exciting raw tools, he’ll need to refine them at the next level. He struggles at times to repeat his delivery and he doesn't have much of a changeup. But with his athleticism, makeup and size (he’s listed at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds) to go with two solid offerings, he has all the tools necessary for a player development staff to mold into quality pitcher.
 

StrikeZone

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #636 on: June 10, 2015, 02:30:35 pm »
On the MLB.com video Padgett's mechanics were all knees and elbows, so you could see how he'd have trouble repeating them.  You could see he had a wicked curve, too.  He could be an interesting signee, if they could get him done.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #637 on: June 10, 2015, 02:31:47 pm »
Pretty obvious the Cub scouts have some different scores in their scouting boxes than Fangraphs does.  Nothing other than speed looks particularly worthwhile on that report, and those Fangraphs scores don't make you the best $1.5-buy available. 

I'd kinda assuming the Cubs might put a higher projection grade on the fielding than 55, and almost certainly a higher hitting than 20/45+.  I'd guess they'd need to project hitting to at least 50 to be the best $1.5 value available.   

Very few HS guys at 5'9-170 are viewed as projectible upside guys.

As the BA report on Wilson notes, scouts generally want to see what these type of guys can do at college level.

Benintendi is a good example of this. He had tremendous HS career, recruited by SEC school without much MLB interest and, even as college guy, was late in getting attention commensurate with his performance.

Theo and the boys are very big on makeup/intangibles. They are going to say Wilson makeup "off the charts" as saying goes. So, we'll see. Think Theo can handle the career humiliation if a 4th rounder doesn't pan out for him.

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #638 on: June 10, 2015, 02:38:04 pm »
Just to further breakdown McDaniel
3- 55
10- 50+
22- 50
29- 45+


StrikeZone

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #639 on: June 10, 2015, 02:38:06 pm »
JJ Cooper on Cubs latest pick:

Quote
Cubs pick Delvin Zinn is an excellent defensive SS. Questions all revolve around how much he'll hit.

Reb

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #640 on: June 10, 2015, 02:42:16 pm »
On the MLB.com video Padgett's mechanics were all knees and elbows, so you could see how he'd have trouble repeating them.  You could see he had a wicked curve, too.  He could be an interesting signee, if they could get him done.

Likely unsignable unless Hudson or Wilson don't sign.

Or, Cubs can stop saving money and give up two future 1st round picks to spend money now and blow past their signing limit.

CurtOne

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #641 on: June 10, 2015, 02:45:20 pm »
So tell me who is infallible?


Me and the Pope, although the Pope's had some clunkers in the last 600 years.

CUBluejays

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #642 on: June 10, 2015, 02:47:17 pm »
The pope is only infallible in certain situations and it is rarely, rarely, rarely done.  Unlike Curt who tries to use it daily.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2015, 03:10:00 pm by CUBluejays »

craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #643 on: June 10, 2015, 02:49:49 pm »
And just as I post that they take a high school player.

ETA: Jared Padgett 6'3" LHP (starter) Mississippi State commit out of Florida.

This is how they've done it every draft.  Rounds 1-20 are guys they expect to sign.  (Usually that extends to 25, but sometimes there's some this-and-that in the 21-25 area.)  Then 26-40 tend to be a bunch of HS guys they don't sign with a few organizational pick college guys and some iffy-to-sign college/JC guys mixed in. 

I do wonder whether they might perhaps take a few more HS guys who are "might sign" type, but who don't need a million in overslot.  Maybe they've got exact numbers from each of the four $$ draft picks.  But maybe they don't know for sure how far they'll have to extend for several of them.  Maybe if they stay below their max on several of them, they'd have $200-400K discretionary.  Not going to get you a million-dollar guy.  But there might be one or two guys who would sign for $300 or $250 or something. 


craig

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Re: 2015 MLB Draft
« Reply #644 on: June 10, 2015, 02:51:48 pm »
Odd that they picked a HS guy at 18.  Crespo.  Heh heh, mlb lists his birthday as 92, but I doubt he's really a 22/23-year-old HS kid!  :) 

Maybe he doesn't like school and will sign for slot.