From Baseball America's draft preview - and their discussion on right handed HS pitchers. Since 2003, HS righties picked in the top 10 have a lower career average WAR than those picked 11-20, 21-30, and 41-50.
"Even though it keeps not working, we're obsessed with 18-year old kids throwing 96-99. It's safe right? The kid is probably huge, he's throwing 100, he shows up on the field. It's going to be very difficult for anybody to be like, 'This is a ridiculous pick.' Some 6'5" dude throws one bullet at 100 and everyone in player development (and on this site) is happy. But we have the data. We have the history. We know that shouldn't be the reaction."
.... "It's just the safe factor", the cross-checker said. "You pop someone and they to out to short-season and the game report comes back 88-92 and he pitches 5 innings and gives up three runs, it's uncomfortable.