Author Topic: Cubs Draft 2019  (Read 4354 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #60 on: June 04, 2019, 07:40:42 am »
Thank goc, Fresno State was eliminated so Jensen won’t get abused.

Cronin is interesting. A hard throwing lefty reliever would be nice.

I’d like to see the Cubs get an upside high school arm similar to Franklin a couple times.

Jensen has so many things that can go wrong with him that will prevent him from ever reaching the majors, but at least it wasn’t average fastball guy.

Strumpf seems like a very Cubs pick. College hitter that will give you a professional AB.

Ron

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #61 on: June 04, 2019, 07:42:43 am »
Strumpf was a pretty shiny prospect heading into the season, but took a huge step backwards - sophomore year stellar, junior year mediocre.  Not much glove and can't run, so he's a hit or bust proposition, pretty much.  A LIAB pick to be sure - gambling that he finds whatever he had last season, and lost.

I know nothing about Strumpf, but the Fangraphs ratings posted by CUBluejays doesn't seem consistent with "not much glove and can't run."  Or am I misunderstanding their ratings system?

Fangraphs
#51,Hit 30/55, Game Power 25/40, Raw Power 50/50, Speed 50/50, Field 45/50, Arm 50/50
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 07:44:57 am by Ron »

JeffH

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #62 on: June 04, 2019, 08:06:20 am »
The latter.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #63 on: June 04, 2019, 08:10:50 am »
I think 50 is average. Projected to be average on speed, fielding, and arm doesn’t sound like nothing.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #64 on: June 04, 2019, 08:20:15 am »
Ron, it's a 20-80 scouting scale, with 20 being worst and 80 being best.

The number before the slash is the player's rating as of now.  The number after the slash is the player's projected rating.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #65 on: June 04, 2019, 08:43:16 am »
Dave when did you coach him, he looks fantastic, kid was painting corners with his breaker the other day.
14 year old competitive ball, Memphis Tigers...his parents drove him down from Lexington every weekend to play for us. He was our ace...not our fastest guy, but pitchability was off the charts, and the best pickoff move anyone in the age group had ever seen. He threw a 6 inning perfect game in which he struck out 17, and the opposing coach (a friend of mine) still talks about how impressive it was to this day (his team was really good as well).

I remember he used to run foul poles after every start, religiously...didn't matter if it was noon or midnight. Both he and his parents had big picture plans, even then...

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #66 on: June 04, 2019, 08:47:10 am »
I read the written ones as an offense/bat prospect.   Fangraphs ranks the two present offense-areas as the bad ones (30 and 25), and doesn't project them as even potentially becoming very good (55 and 40); but they view everything else as already perfectly fine/average. 
*Hit 30/55, Game Power 25/40, Raw Power 50/50, Speed 50/50, Field 45/50, Arm 50/50

Sink or swim with the offense.  Doesn't sound like the other stuff is going to hold him back, *IF* he can hit.  There are lots of 2B and LF opportunities around for an excellent hitter who fields fine but isn't Javy or Hewyard. 

Hope he hits!

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2019, 09:05:41 am »
The present grades at Fangraphs represent what they think is statistical profile would be if you brought him up to the majors today.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2019, 09:47:42 am »
Right.  It's pretty routine with these that hitting and game-power for players are the present-vs-projected have the big gaps, and for pitchers the control has the big present-vs-projected have big gaps.  Speed and arm obviously aren't going to change a lot.  (Although obviously tons of guys get slower over their careers.) 

55-40 aren't really that great or high-ceiling of possible projections for hitting and game power. 

To some degree, I think the scouting things don't necessarily have as much discrimination as they could or should.  If you've got Baez or Bryant power, maybe you'll score really high there, or Buxton speed.  But from the projections standpoint, it's hard to get 60's or better; and  you rarely get guys scoring <40.  And Fangraphs only goes by 5's.  So, seems a whole lot of guys kind of get clustered in the 45-50-55 areas. 

JR

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #69 on: June 04, 2019, 10:13:37 am »
Passan tweeted out Matthew Allen who had a $4 million price tag to the Cubs.

I'll never understand high school pitchers pricing themselves out of the first round just so they can go to college.  There are a lot of bad things that can happen to your arm over three years before you're eligible again. 

Maybe the college experience is worth $2.5 million to him, but boy that's just risky.  It just seems like taking the money and doing college later is just an infinitely smarter move.

JR

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #70 on: June 04, 2019, 10:14:19 am »
Just as an aside, nobody took Allen yesterday, so the Cubs apparently weren't the only "cheap" ones when it came to him.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #71 on: June 04, 2019, 10:25:27 am »

Evan Altman
@DEvanAltman
According to source, Cubs initially wanted to go in different direction with #27 pick but opted for Ryan Jensen due to underslot bonus considerations. They were looking to pay pick 43-45 money there, which wasn't going to work for top choice.
Could look at it as them being cheap or saving money to go overslot and pay HS kid(s) to skip college with pick(s) in today's rounds. And Jensen is the kind of power arm they don't have in abundance in system.
Let me clarify the "cheap" thing: That was more of a jab at what people want to think about org. They had a plan in mind to go underslot, but it didn't work with first choice.

That would put the saving $840,300-$919,900.

Craig the mlb scouts only move by 5 on their grades, so it isn't just a Fangraphs thing.  Players perfroming at 60 level tools at the major leagues is pretty rare.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #72 on: June 04, 2019, 10:27:12 am »
I'll never understand high school pitchers pricing themselves out of the first round just so they can go to college.  There are a lot of bad things that can happen to your arm over three years before you're eligible again. 

Maybe the college experience is worth $2.5 million to him, but boy that's just risky.  It just seems like taking the money and doing college later is just an infinitely smarter move.

Vandy provides a pretty decent education and they have a reputation for not abusing their pitchers.  It would be one of the few colleges I could see a pitcher skipping pro ball to go to school.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #73 on: June 04, 2019, 10:51:23 am »
Fangraphs write up

Jensen had late helium into the 25-40 range as he’d been performing well, holding his mid-90s velo late into games all year, and he purportedly has unique fastball characteristics that attracted him to progressive clubs. He could move quickly in a multi-inning role and continues the trend of college arms for the Cubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the Cubs kicked the tires on prep RHP Matthew Allan and it sounds like the D’backs did as well. Allan seems likely to go to Florida now. Strumpf is a nice value as another college infield performer who needs a bit of a swing change to turn him into an everyday player. He also homered for UCLA in their regional just seconds after being drafted.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs Draft 2019
« Reply #74 on: June 04, 2019, 10:58:30 am »
Didn't you go to Vandy, JR?