Bleacher Bums Forum

What was Piazza, 62nd round?

Carroll went 16 because he was short, his talent was always there.

Power is one of the easier things to project, and it got better with statcast data.  Now maybe a team looks at him and they think with a swing change you can unlock more power.

Carroll coming off his 21 year old season had a 55/60 Raw power grade and 50/55 game power (present/future).  Schanuel coming off his 21 year old season is 30/50 Raw power, 45/45 game power.  50 is league average.  Schanuel’s 90th percentile EV is 106 with the major league average is 103.5.  That sounds decent until you take into account he was in a bad conference with a metal bat.  His plate skills are intriguing, but the bat really has to play at 1B and without the power it makes it really hard.

Well, Termarr Johnson is 5’8 and he went #4 overall last year. Recall a guy named Corey Patterson (5’10 same as Carroll) and he went #3 overall. Put another way, if the projection is very high, the player can still go very high irrespective of height.

DBacks made a good call on Carroll and that is based mostly on good scouting and good luck. The notion that “power is one of the easiest things to project” with a mid-round-one guy in the draft is overstated——nobody really knows who will hit, power or otherwise. Sure, when a guy has a few years as a pro already, as you note with Carroll years after the draft, you can have a much better idea although still unpredictable. But, on draft day? All a big question mark and hope for the best, except for maybe the occasional elite guy(s) that everybody loves.

Maybe Schanuel at #13 is a poor idea. I have no idea. My point about that is if Cubs pick him at #13, it’s because they are seeing something that the EV data is perhaps not fully capturing and they really like him and they have infinitely more expertise on the matter than you or me. Maybe that would turn out to be a bad pick or maybe a great pick. That turns on scouting and luck, not because power is easily projected or not projected.

Well, Termarr Johnson is 5’8 and he went #4 overall last year. Recall a guy named Corey Patterson (5’10 same as Carroll) and he went #3 overall. Put another way, if the projection is very high, the player can still go very high irrespective of height.

DBacks made a good call on Carroll and that is based mostly on good scouting and good luck. The notion that “power is one of the easiest things to project” with a mid-round-one guy in the draft is overstated——nobody really knows who will hit, power or otherwise. Sure, when a guy has a few years as a pro already, as you note with Carroll years after the draft, you can have a much better idea although still unpredictable. But, on draft day? All a big question mark and hope for the best, except for maybe the occasional elite guy(s) that everybody loves.

Maybe Schanuel at #13 is a poor idea. I have no idea. My point about that is if Cubs pick him at #13, it’s because they are seeing something that the EV data is perhaps not fully capturing and they really like him and they have infinitely more expertise on the matter than you or me. Maybe that would turn out to be a bad pick or maybe a great pick. That turns on scouting and luck, not because power is easily projected or not projected.

Here’s Law’s draft ranking from 2019
4. Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle) -- Carroll gets raves for his athleticism, speed, feel to hit, and range in center field, and he has the hand strength and swing to get to above-average power down the road, with his arm the only tool that doesn't project to more than average. He's 5 foot 10 and a bit small, which I keep hearing as a negative, but if he were 6 foot 3 he'd be in the mix to go first overall. Given how many hitters who are under 6 feet but have the hand and wrist strength to drive the ball are succeeding in the majors, this should be a non-issue.

Now maybe a team looks at him and they think with a swing change you can unlock more power.

That is a much more efficient way to make your point.  I never discounted that there could be a way he adds more power, just that something would have to change.  His swing as it currently stands doesn’t project for power.  His plate skills are interesting.  I don’t know that I’d want to draft a guy that high who so much of his value would be based on his bat and the bat lacks a skill.

Projections for the Cubs are still all over the place.

Ah, nasty splitter - the pitch that puts so many surgeons’ kids through college.

Skenes goes #1 to the Pirates

5 best guys are off the board.  It will be interesting to see where it goes from here.