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Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57359 times)

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #975 on: May 31, 2011, 08:05:25 am »
At least jes will be getting his wish on getting a young "rebuild" type lineup out there.  If Soriano goes on the DL, the only old guys in the lineup would likely be Pena, Ramirez, and Kosuke.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #976 on: May 31, 2011, 08:29:19 am »
Not that injuries are the only problem, but they are a big part of it.  The Cubs are still well over .500 when their top 5 starters start.  If Wells and Cashner had been healthy and they'd gotten at least a .500 record out of them (which doesn't seem that hard), they'd be right in the middle of the race.

The Cubs have used 9 different starting pitchers this year, tied with the Rockies for most in the majors.
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Robb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #977 on: May 31, 2011, 08:45:09 am »
When your plan for injuries is Casey Coleman, James Russell, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez, then it's your fault as a GM regardless of the injury bug hitting you.  Especially if you gave away a servicable starter for nothing to save a couple of million.
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #978 on: May 31, 2011, 08:50:13 am »
Gorzelanny certainly would have helped.  For a while.  But he's on the DL now.
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #979 on: May 31, 2011, 08:56:44 am »
Given Soriano's past problems with his quads, I'd think the Cubs would want him on the DL to make sure it heals.   It's too bad that Jackson is just now coming back from his injury, and not really in a position to be called up.  It would be fun to see an outfield that included both Jackson and Campana.  When's the last time there was that much speed in a Cubs' outfield?
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JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #980 on: May 31, 2011, 09:44:01 am »
Quote from: brjones on May 31, 2011, 08:29:19 am
If Wells and Cashner had been healthy and they'd gotten at least a .500 record out of them (which doesn't seem that hard), they'd be right in the middle of the race.

I wonder how many wins we've really lost because of Wells/Cashner.  I don't think you can assume a .500 record for those starts, though.  Before yesterday, the Cubs were only averaging 3.12 runs per game in injury replacement starts, and were held to 3 or fewer runs in 10 of the 17 games.  With such little run production, I don't think you can safely assume a .500 record at all for games started by your 4th and 5th starters.

We're 3-14 in games started by injury replacement starting pitchers.  We've lost 3 games where we've scored five or more runs.  Maybe with regular starters, we go 2-1 in those games (hopefully would have won yesterday's game)?  We've lost 2 games where we've scored four runs, so maybe we go 1-1 in those?

So maybe 3-4 wins is what losing Wells and Cashner have cost us perhaps?  Granted that would put us only 2 1/2 or 3 1/2 games out of the lead in the division, but we'd still only be looking at a team that was a .500 level team or slightly worse. 
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #981 on: May 31, 2011, 09:45:52 am »
I know people love to watch guys who are scrappy, run fast, try hard, and look athletic.  But I just can't get excited about Campana.  No power, low walk guys shouldn't be playing regularly for teams that want to win.  A .650ish OPS just doesn't cut it in the majors at any position in modern baseball...especially when you're already carrying a couple other no walk, no power guys.
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JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #982 on: May 31, 2011, 10:15:10 am »
Quote from: Ron on May 31, 2011, 08:56:44 am
It's too bad that Jackson is just now coming back from his injury, and not really in a position to be called up.  It would be fun to see an outfield that included both Jackson and Campana.  When's the last time there was that much speed in a Cubs' outfield?

I'm probably in the minority, but I'm kind of interested in seeing what Snyder and Montanez can do with a real opportunity.  We already have Jackson as a big part of our plans for the future anyway.  I seriously doubt either Snyder or Montanez will amount to much, but you never know unless you give them a chance.  It'd be nice if we did get pleasantly surprised by someone like that.
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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #983 on: May 31, 2011, 10:27:16 am »
Snyder has such trouble making contact that he's probably not worth wasting time on.  Montanez might have a future as a RH backup outfielder, but those aren't too tough to find.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #984 on: May 31, 2011, 10:35:58 am »
Obviously, Cubs biggest problem has been the starting pitching.

Cubs' starting pitchers have an ERA of 5.61.  That is dead last in the majors----dead last by a mile.

#29 is KC at 5.26.  But, the second worst starting pitching ERA in the NL is the Reds at 4.95.  So, Cubs are well over 1/2 run worse than the second worst team in the NL.

Average starting pitching ERA in the NL is 4.02.  Cubs are over 1 1/2 runs per game worse than the average NL team.  Amazing.

Cubs relievers are NL average.  Although #10 in relief ERA, Cubs relievers are 3.38 and NL average for relief is 3.39. 

While we all get upset about the offense, Cubs are #5 in NL in runs scored per game.  Thanks to batting average, Cubs are #3 in NL on-base % . But, Cubs are #13 in NL in OPS with runners in scoring position (#5 in OPS overall).
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #985 on: May 31, 2011, 10:51:17 am »
Starting pitching may be the biggest problem (and the terrible defense is a huge part of that, of course), but the lack of home runs is also a big issue.  The Cubs are 12th in the NL in homers, but only 5 HR ahead of last place (and only 1 ahead of both the Mets and Giants--meaning they could drop into 14th with a bad day).  And it's not going to get any better with increased playing time for Campana and DeWitt.

Pretty much everyone who is in 10th place or below in homers sucks (Pirates, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Astros, Padres) or only succeeds because of an exceptional pitching staff (Giants).  But the only truly awful team in the top 9 is the Nationals.  Getting some guys into the lineup who can knock the ball out of the park more regularly is essential.
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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #986 on: May 31, 2011, 10:54:33 am »
Obviously, Cubs biggest problem has been the starting pitching.

The Cubs biggest problem has been - and continues to be - their GM.
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Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #987 on: May 31, 2011, 12:40:42 pm »
Quote from: brjones on May 31, 2011, 10:51:17 am
Starting pitching may be the biggest problem (and the terrible defense is a huge part of that, of course), but the lack of home runs is also a big issue.  The Cubs are 12th in the NL in homers, but only 5 HR ahead of last place (and only 1 ahead of both the Mets and Giants--meaning they could drop into 14th with a bad day).  And it's not going to get any better with increased playing time for Campana and DeWitt.

Pretty much everyone who is in 10th place or below in homers sucks (Pirates, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Astros, Padres) or only succeeds because of an exceptional pitching staff (Giants).  But the only truly awful team in the top 9 is the Nationals.  Getting some guys into the lineup who can knock the ball out of the park more regularly is essential.

No.  It is not.  On offense the goal is to score runs, and the Cubs are 5th in the league.  The goal is NOT to hit HR, though that is a very efficient way of scoring runs.  If the Cubs are 5th in scoring, the are doing okay on that side of the ledger.
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Robb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #988 on: May 31, 2011, 01:05:28 pm »
Who says the Cubs are trying to be competitive?  If this is trying then I would hate to see not trying.
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Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #989 on: May 31, 2011, 01:38:51 pm »
Quote from: Robb on May 31, 2011, 08:45:09 am
When your plan for injuries is Casey Coleman, James Russell, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez, then it's your fault as a GM regardless of the injury bug hitting you.  Especially if you gave away a servicable starter for nothing to save a couple of million.
It all fell apart when Carlos Silva was let go.
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