Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57277 times)

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #255 on: April 27, 2011, 09:10:46 am »
Well right after I thought Barney was falling back to earth and I thought Quade was slow on the ball to drop him down in the order, he goes 8 for his next 19 with a homer.  You would think I would have learned my lesson about being skeptical of whether he can keep things going.
 
Still, he's almost going to have to hit a decline sooner or later and fall back to his pedestrian minor league numbers.  The one thing that made me have some hope that he may have found a new level of offensive ability was his remarkable contact rate at the start of the season, when he struck out only once in his first 29 AB and 3 K's in his first 50 AB. 
 
Since then, his BB rate (5% BB rate in 2011 vs. 4.8% BB rate in 2010 Iowa) and K rate (12% in 2011 vs. 10% in 2010) are back in line with his minor league numbers.  His percentage of extra base hits to total hits is roughly the same (19% in 2011 vs. 21% in 2010), so I'm doubtful Camp Colvin is having a big effect on his numbers.  Also, it's been 47 AB since he's last drawn a walk. 
 
I'm just having a lot of trouble buying into the idea he's for real and that he's going to remain an offensive asset the rest of the year.  Hopefully this is one of those posts that will get reposted and we can all laugh over when Barney makes the All-Star team and wins the Rookie of the Year award, but I don't see how he's going to keep things going.  I still have to think we likely have a guy who's more of a .690-.710 OPS hitter who's just playing out of his mind right now.   
 
As if the Cubs haven't looked mediocre enough, things are only going to get worse once Barney likely remembers he's not much of a hitter.  Guys like Geo, Byrd, and Pena need to pick things up.   
« Last Edit: April 27, 2011, 09:13:53 am by JR »

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #256 on: April 27, 2011, 09:18:09 am »
I think there is enough that has been demonstrably bad about the Cubs offense without projecting failure for someone who has actually performed well.

Tom Hudson

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #257 on: April 27, 2011, 09:34:17 am »
Come on, PlayTwo, can't you find something negative in everything?  I mean it is already 1/8 of the way through the season and the Cubs are already out of the running, 2 full games back in the division.  What kind of BBF Cub fan are you anyway?

craig

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #258 on: April 27, 2011, 12:51:12 pm »
JR, while it may not be substantially reflected in XBH, perhaps Camp Colvin strength is helping Barney's ground balls and line drives to be hit a little more authoritatively, resulting in a real and sustainable boost in BABIP.  A hard ground ball has a better chance of getting through the infield than a softer one. 

A second possibility (I doubt it's really true) might be lefty splits.  I'm not sure how his minor-league splits were.  And I don't know that it's true, but I have a hypothesis that perhaps big-league teams use more LHP.   If he's got strong splits versus LHP, perhaps seeing more LHP in the majors helps him? 

3.  His overall minor league profile is representative:  low K's, low walks, low power, lives off his BA.  But to some degree looking at his .708 minor-league OPS may be misleading.  2008 Daytona was his first full-season year, .682.  Perhaps not surprisingly a lower OPS.  The next year he promoted to AA but then got further promoted to Iowa, .634.  Maybe the real settled Barney is better represented by the .769 and .711 that he showed at Tenn in 09 and Iowa 10? 

4. If he "reverted" to the  .711-.769 range that he showed at Iowa and Tenn the last two years, would that be problematic?  I would suggest that if he was able to sustain in the .711-.769 OPS range over the long haul, while playing a stellar defensive 2B and being an alert small-ball and situational player offensively, that might be pretty satisfactory for a long-term regular 2B. 

I'm not expecting him to end up at .325 batting average or with an .800 slugging percentage.  But I'm not sure that he might not settle out as a .290+ hitter and be a good value as a regular 2B.  Entering the year, I never considered him as more than a potential utility guy.  But now I think he's earned consideration as a long-term regular 2B. 


Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #259 on: April 27, 2011, 05:49:37 pm »
So far, Barney has an OBP of .310 and an OPS of .698 vs RHP.  He is 7-12 vs LHP with an OBP of .615 and an OPS of 1.365.

StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #260 on: April 27, 2011, 07:47:45 pm »
The Cubs are murdering lefties.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #261 on: April 27, 2011, 08:34:43 pm »
and to dogpile on Hendry, Gorzzzelanny with another quality start for Washington.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #262 on: April 27, 2011, 09:34:19 pm »
This is Kosuke's career line for April:  356-464-544.  His career OPS+ in April is 156.  That's in 345 plate appearances too.   

A 156 OPS+ is better than the overall career OPS+ of Aaron, Mays, DiMaggio, Ott (all at 155), F.Robinson (154) and Honus Wagner (150).

Too bad it's a long season.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #263 on: April 27, 2011, 09:44:07 pm »
I'm not crazy about how Quade is moving Castro around in the lineup.  Sure, the exact spot that a guy hits is overrated and probably not a big deal but I'm concerned that Quade is making the classic mistake that bad managers make (not saying that Quade is a bad manager.....yet):  taking his best players and moving them around to accommodate the lesser players. 

The better players should be placed where they are most comfortable, let them do their thing because they are the most valuable and important, and move around the lesser players because, well, they are the lesser players.  They are less important than the big guys doing what they do.

Instead, Quade is batting Castro leadoff one day, third another day, second the other day.  Leave the kid alone and let him do his thing.

Not to pick on Quade, who is not the problem, really, but I can't recall a manager in some time who makes so few in-game moves.  He lets the starting pitcher stay in the game until he absolutely, positively proves he cannot get anybody out; he lets the pitcher hit when ought to make a move, he doesn't pinch hit for a righty to get a platoon advantage. Quade seems alert sitting in the dugout, I don't know......do something.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #264 on: April 27, 2011, 09:47:22 pm »
and to dogpile on Hendry, Gorzzzelanny with another quality start for Washington.

Yeah 3.97 ERA now. 

Either Hendry or Ricketts needs to be dogpiled on that.  If $2 million was way too much money to keep a quality pitcher, that one's on Ricketts.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #265 on: April 27, 2011, 09:57:15 pm »
Not to pick on Quade, who is not the problem, really, but I can't recall a manager in some time who makes so few in-game moves.  He lets the starting pitcher stay in the game until he absolutely, positively proves he cannot get anybody out; he lets the pitcher hit when ought to make a move, he doesn't pinch hit for a righty to get a platoon advantage. Quade seems alert sitting in the dugout, I don't know......do something.

Probably the area where he does too much is mixing and matching relievers when he finally does pull a starter out of the game.  He burns through relievers (and using a lot of mediocre relievers instead of using good ones like Marshall for a full inning) to get one or two outs a lot more than to my liking. 

But like you say, I don't think Quade is the problem right now.  I honestly don't think he's doing a lot to enhance the team's performance, other than choosing Barney to start at second over the vets and probably being fortunate that he's hitting well ahead of his career norms right now.  But I don't think he's doing a lot of terrible, incompetent stuff either that's costing us a lot of games . . . stuff we saw a lot of from Dusty, Lou the last two years, Baylor, Riggleman, etc.

He's not really a difference making manager either way I don't think.  At least that's my early impression.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #266 on: April 27, 2011, 10:01:47 pm »
By the way, nice to see you found your way over here Reb.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #267 on: April 27, 2011, 10:18:01 pm »
Thanks JR.  Nice to see that the group is together.

Regarding the discussion about James Russell--I think that the brass is impressed by Russell's make-up and demeanor.  The guy gives up a homer, you look at him, and you'd never know that he gave up a homer (well, unless you look at the scoreboard). 

I'm never been a fan of the guy. 

Maybe Jay Jackson gets  called up for the Monday start?

Robert L

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #268 on: April 27, 2011, 10:23:54 pm »
has FDISK been on yet?

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #269 on: April 27, 2011, 10:26:16 pm »
We should make a list of people missing and then send out emails.