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Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57380 times)

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #300 on: April 29, 2011, 02:52:03 pm »
Dempster and Russell have given up 15 homers in 44 innings.  That's pretty astounding. 

Cubs have hit 17 homers as a team.  For those losing interest in the Cubs, keep an eye on this race to the top.

On the bright side, Cubs are 8-7 in games not started by Dempster and Russell.

I've never seen Dempster throw like that--the most recent start.  Forget about the result--sometimes you can give up a bunch of runs with bad luck and a couple of mistakes--but he was throwing slop up there.  The pitches to the opposing pitcher, Enright, were scary.  What, three pitches with nothing down the middle?  Still, Quade left him in to face another hitter.  Say what you will about Lou, but no way Lou lets Dempster pitch to Chris Young after the way he threw to the opposing pitcher.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 02:53:52 pm by Reb »
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Clarkaddison

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #301 on: April 29, 2011, 02:56:19 pm »
That could have been the worst third of an inning to open a game in Cubs history.  When Dempster was missing, it wasn't even close.

When so many pitchers are going bad, it's on the pitching coach.  So far, Riggins is the worst since Marty DeMerritt, who spent more time hitting the bars on Clark Street than watching video of his pitchers.

We didn't appreciate Larry Rothschild enough until he left.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #302 on: April 29, 2011, 03:15:18 pm »
Didn't Wells give up about hundred hits to start a game last year?
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #303 on: April 29, 2011, 03:26:14 pm »
I may be wrong, but I don't think it's necessarily on the coach.  Coincidental things happen often. 

dempster's an older pitcher who's been worked really hard.  It's hardly unusual for a pitcher to come up with arm trouble, and be the kind of ineffective that Dempster has been when trying to throw with a bad arm.  Rothschild wasn't using an 86-mph Dempster while he was here. 

Garza has been racking up innings for years, and his effectiveness had already dropped last year.  His ERA+ was 101, well down.  He's perhaps at a point in his career where he's not getting better but his arm might perhaps be getting worse.  Is it astonishing that a guy who had deteriorated last year and was basically an average pitcher overall would have a month where he's not been very good?  Happens to average pitchers all the time, even when healthy.  And perhaps after the last few heavy years his arm isn't quite what it was 2-3-4 years ago. 

Zambrano has put a ton of wear on his arm, and had been in a gradual decline for years until his 2nd-hand anti-HR rebound last year.  But that anti-HR spell last summer was quite out of line with how he'd pitched for Rothschild earlier in the year and during the many years previous.  It's hardly surprising that he's not gone all month without a HR. 

Rothschild NEVER had a guy like Russell starting.  I don't think it's on the coach when Russell is bad. 

Next week maybe they'll call up Jay Jackson, who was highly hittable and was a HR-factory last year in the minors.  I don't think it will be on the coach if Jackson comes up and gives up HR's and looks overmatched. 

I thought Rothschild was an excellent pitching coach, by the way.  I thought he was very good.  But I'm not sure the current debacle is Riggins. 
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #304 on: April 29, 2011, 04:05:39 pm »
Quote from: craig on April 29, 2011, 03:26:14 pm
Garza has been racking up innings for years, and his effectiveness had already dropped last year.  His ERA+ was 101, well down.  He's perhaps at a point in his career where he's not getting better but his arm might perhaps be getting worse.  Is it astonishing that a guy who had deteriorated last year and was basically an average pitcher overall would have a month where he's not been very good?  Happens to average pitchers all the time, even when healthy.  And perhaps after the last few heavy years his arm isn't quite what it was 2-3-4 years ago. 

Garza gets lumped in with the rest of the underperforming staff, but he has actually been really good.  No one is making good contact off him, but his defense and hitters are letting him down.  Consider:
  • Garza is leading the league in strikeouts.  He's striking out 12 per 9 IP.  Pitchers don't strike out that many without pretty dominating stuff.
  • Garza has only walked 9 batters in 30 1/3 IP.  Not elite, but only 2.64/9 IP.  That's half a walk below his career rate (3.15 BB/9 IP).
  • Some say his velocity is down.  And it's true if you only look at his four-seam fastball (92.7 mph this year, lower than his 93.4 career average).  But it's also early in the season, when most pitchers throw a little softer (there was an article about this on BP a week or two ago if you need evidence).  And he's throwing the four-seamer far less often this year, which may also result in decreased velocity.
  • But if you look at his other pitches, he's throwing his slider (87.1), curve (76.2), and two-seamer (92.9) harder than he ever has (according to PitchFX: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P)
  • His BABIP is ridiculously high at .414, and the percentage of runners he is stranding is ridiculously low at 60%.  Both of those numbers point to some pretty awful defense behind him, which I could anecdotally support (3 errors in an inning by Castro resulted in 3 runners scoring that should've been stranded, for one example). 
Some (Jes) will point out that a high BABIP may just mean hitters are squaring up a pitcher better than they have in the past.  But I would argue that other stats show pretty conclusively that this is not the case with Garza:
  • I've already cited the high strikeout rate.  The fact that he's getting so guys to swing and miss as often as anyone in the league is enough to convince me that they're not squaring him up.
  • Garza has always been a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, which translates into a good number of homers.   He has given up no homers this year.  His BABIP is 124 points higher than his career average...if his BABIP was just high because they were hitting him hard, doesn't it seem like at least a few balls would've left the park by now? 
  • For his career, 32% of the hits against Garza have gone for extra bases.  When I calculated it the other day, league average so far this year is somewhere around 34% of hits going for extra bases.  However, only 19% of the hits Garza has given up this year have been doubles or triples.  If he was truly getting hit hard, wouldn't you expect this XBH% to be bad?  Instead, it's pretty great.
Garza's subpar start is almost 100% bad luck.  Ground balls have been finding holes, and soft liners and pop flies have been falling in front of his weak outfielders.  With a good defense and average offense behind him, he'd have an ERA of about 2.00 and 2-3 wins by now.  Since his team has abandoned him, though, he's 0-3 with a merely decent 4.11 ERA.  His BABIP will normalize, though...and if he keeps pitching like he has so far, he'll have the best season of his career.
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Ray

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #305 on: April 29, 2011, 06:00:03 pm »
Excellent job by brjones putting garza's season in perspective. And I agree with Craig that The talent level doesn't seem where it was when Larry was here but Riggins has still far from impressed me and I always thought this board immensely undervalued the ole "throwing" coach.
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StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #306 on: April 29, 2011, 10:33:46 pm »
I'm on record as saying that I believe both the Quade and Riggins hires were money-motivated.
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Robb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #307 on: April 29, 2011, 11:16:26 pm »
I hope Soriano keeps this up long enough for some contender to consider taking him at the deadline.  Hendry will still have to throw in significant cash but contending can lead to stupid moves.  This would have to be epic stupid but it's been known to happen.  The Gilbert Arenas to the Magic trade comes to mind.
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StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #308 on: April 29, 2011, 11:17:16 pm »
Hey, Vernon Wells got traded.

Anything can happen.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #309 on: April 29, 2011, 11:29:45 pm »
The problem with Soriano is that he just doesn't contribute anything but homers at this point.  His OBP is atrocious at .269.  With Dunn DHing full time now, he's probably the worst defensive outfielder in baseball.  He no longer runs well at all.  Even if he keeps up what he's done so far, he's still not that good and it's going to be impossible to find a trade partner.

Now if he boosts his OBP by 50 points and continues to hit homers at the rate he has, maybe some AL team in need of a DH can be convinced to take on 25% of his salary.
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Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #310 on: May 01, 2011, 07:53:11 am »
James Russell will start Monday night in LA.  Then it will be nearly two weeks before a fifth starter will be needed and that could be Doug Davis

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/5105364-573/veteran-doug-davis-building-toward-work-as-cubs-5th-starter.html
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Robb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #311 on: May 01, 2011, 12:58:46 pm »
Are Wells and Cashner never coming back?
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JBN

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #312 on: May 01, 2011, 01:11:21 pm »
If you were them, would you want to?
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mO

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #313 on: May 01, 2011, 02:52:00 pm »
News: Cubs pitchers Andrew Cashner (shoulder) and Randy Wells (forearm) had successful flat-ground throwing sessions on Saturday, reports the Chicago Sun-Times. Both pitchers will travel with the team rather than going to extended spring training. No timetable has been established for their return.
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StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #314 on: May 01, 2011, 03:20:29 pm »
Quote
The Cubs believe Russell was given a bad rap over his last outing, in which he allowed three home runs in four innings on a night with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field.
What's their excuse for Russell sucking the rest of the time?
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