Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57302 times)

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #375 on: May 04, 2011, 08:44:59 pm »
Fangraphs on what's wrong with Dempster:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/whats-wrong-with-ryan-dempster/

Short answer?  Bad luck.  Don't know if I agree, but it's good that it's pretty easy to make that argument.

Cactus

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Coach

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #377 on: May 05, 2011, 11:26:12 am »
Quade lectures Soriano on lack of hustle

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0505-bits-cubs-dodgers-chicago20110504,0,395244.story

Bravo Mr. Quade!  Next time he has to do it, change "lectures" to "fines"

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #378 on: May 05, 2011, 11:34:52 am »
I'm sure Soriano's never been lectured about his lack of hustle before.

mO

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #379 on: May 05, 2011, 11:52:25 am »
Quade needs to recognize his bias against Soriano.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #380 on: May 06, 2011, 01:29:13 pm »
The Cubs have released Max Ramirez.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #381 on: May 06, 2011, 01:34:15 pm »
I guess the Cubs don't want him taking at bats from Welington, and it's not like the backup catcher has played enough this year to worry about keeping another one in the organization anyway.  Perhaps it's also a way to clear room for when rotation savior Doug Davis arrives.

BTW Welington Castillo is off to a rough start to the season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=castil001wel

Ray

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #382 on: May 07, 2011, 03:01:06 am »
some interesting stat analysis i thought...

after yesterdays game, the cubs are tied for 19th in runs scored, yet are 4th in batting average, even with Pena's albatross of a  bat dragging it down.  They're 15th in home runs, 11th in obp, slugging percentage, and ops and are 8th in total bases.  Run production isn't what it should be right now.  Does lack of a running game make that big a difference?

It just seems to me, if we had even an average first baseman, or if Pena really is heating up a lil(a relative term for him i realize) and we can get a lil more timely hitting(all that clutch stuff evens out over the year), the Cubs might have a chance in this horrid division.  We just really need to get Wells, and Cashner back asap, and hope Cashner's first start is indicative of what we can expect rather than his meltdown last year.  I've always like Randy, and expect him to do ok.  From everything I've seen of Garza, i think he will come around...If we can get good starting pitching, i look at the bullpen as a strength because it will be Wood, Marshall, and Marmol getting the bulk of the innings.

If they stay close, i could see them getting hot in June, July...i'm hoping anyway, they haven't given me very much to root for this year, or for a while i suppose....sigh

Bash away   lol

Cubsin

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #383 on: May 07, 2011, 03:28:27 am »
Barney and Castro are about the only bright spots on this team. Dempster and Pena have been horrible. Garza has looked like a #4 or 5 starter. Wells and Cashner have been out. None of the middle relievers or emergency starters have stood out. Soriano is hitting home runs, mostly solo shots, but has done little else. Colvin is having a rotten sophomore year so far. Wood, Marshall and Marmol have been effective, but they don't drive in or score many runs. 

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #384 on: May 07, 2011, 06:23:24 am »
some interesting stat analysis i thought...

after yesterdays game, the cubs are tied for 19th in runs scored, yet are 4th in batting average, even with Pena's albatross of a  bat dragging it down.  They're 15th in home runs, 11th in obp, slugging percentage, and ops and are 8th in total bases.  Run production isn't what it should be right now.  Does lack of a running game make that big a difference?



Actually, Ray, these stats have been quoted on other boards as evidence of Cub futility with situational hitting, hitting under pressure, strategic at bats which also reflects on the manager, line-up management, and, frankly, just Quade.

I'm seeing more and more: there's a reason this guy was a minor league lifer.

Robb

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #385 on: May 07, 2011, 06:38:09 am »
Cubs have lost the first game of their last four series.  I guess the good news is they came back to win their last two series.  The bad news is Casey Coleman goes today against the Reds offense.  I wouldn't be parking my car on Waveland or Sheffield today.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #386 on: May 07, 2011, 07:35:33 am »
Garza has looked like a #4 or 5 starter.

I think br's been making some good points about Garza.  When you're 2nd in the majors in strikeouts and have only given up 1 home run all season, it's very unlucky that you have a 1-4 record with a 4.43 ERA.  If he keeps striking people out and limiting home runs, sooner or later the results are going to get a lot better. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #387 on: May 07, 2011, 08:11:15 am »
Of the 116 major league pitchers who have thrown enough inning to qualify, Matt Garza:

  • Has the highest BABIP (.388) in the majors.  There is no one else over .365.  This despite the fact that Garza has been the best in the league at striking people out, and has limited extra base hits.  For his career, Garza's career BABIP is almost 100 points lower at .291.
  • Has the 7th lowest LOB% at 59.4% (Dempster is 5th at 58.8%, by the way).  For his career, Garza is at 72.8%. 
Both of these numbers point to extremely bad luck and/or a defense that is seriously letting Garza down.  Both numbers will regress towards his career numbers, and he'll start getting better results.


On the other hand, Matt Garza has the second highest WAR (2.0) of any pitcher in the majors, only behind that pitching robot the Phillies imported from Canada last year.  Garza's peripherals show him to be a clear ace so far. 

Ray

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #388 on: May 07, 2011, 08:14:11 am »
Actually, Ray, these stats have been quoted on other boards as evidence of Cub futility with situational hitting, hitting under pressure, strategic at bats which also reflects on the manager, line-up management, and, frankly, just Quade.

I'm seeing more and more: there's a reason this guy was a minor league lifer.

It could be Quade...but i must admit, after he did such an admirable job on the disaster that was the 2010 season, I actually had high hopes for him as a manager this year. I haven't been able to watch as many games as i normally do because of work, and i haven't read the game thread in a year or two because 97% of it is nonsense(its just too hard to wade through it for the tidbits of good information), so i really can't comment on Quade's job performance.  Either way, right now, I'm just hoping all the situational stuff evens out over the course of the year like it generally does in baseball. 

I just have a gut feeling at some point the cubs are gonna get hot.  If they do, hopefully it happens before it's too late to make something of the season. 

I will say that something that surprised me was that 4rth place in batting average the Cubs were only .269, and i was shocked at the sheer amount of teams under .260.  Philadelphia was 8th place there.  Detroit was 14th at .251.  Tampa was 20th at 241.  San Diego was last at 216...how the crap does a major league team hit .216 a month plus into the season.  I have so been streaming whatever pitcher is pitching against them in my fantasy leagues.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #389 on: May 07, 2011, 08:18:46 am »
some interesting stat analysis i thought...

after yesterdays game, the cubs are tied for 19th in runs scored, yet are 4th in batting average, even with Pena's albatross of a  bat dragging it down.  They're 15th in home runs, 11th in obp, slugging percentage, and ops and are 8th in total bases.  Run production isn't what it should be right now.  Does lack of a running game make that big a difference?

It just seems to me, if we had even an average first baseman, or if Pena really is heating up a lil(a relative term for him i realize) and we can get a lil more timely hitting(all that clutch stuff evens out over the year), the Cubs might have a chance in this horrid division.  We just really need to get Wells, and Cashner back asap, and hope Cashner's first start is indicative of what we can expect rather than his meltdown last year.  I've always like Randy, and expect him to do ok.  From everything I've seen of Garza, i think he will come around...If we can get good starting pitching, i look at the bullpen as a strength because it will be Wood, Marshall, and Marmol getting the bulk of the innings.

If they stay close, i could see them getting hot in June, July...i'm hoping anyway, they haven't given me very much to root for this year, or for a while i suppose....sigh

Keep drinking that Koolaid, kid.

The Cubs' pythagorean would actually have them having won one fewer games than they have so far, so I don't see this as a team playing thru bad luck.

And the only reason the Cubs rank 19th in runs is because you are looking at both leagues together, meaning you are comparing them to an entire league of teams with the DH.  Limit the look to the NL, and even then focus on the NL East to see not just where the Cubs rank, but how far they are from the league average, from the division leader, and the division laggard.  That will give you a better idea of how the Cubs actually stack up against the division, instead of simply falling back on the old standard that the NL Central is weak and anyone can take it.

In the NL the Cubs rank 10th in runs/game at 4.00, with the league average 4.22, but only the Pirates and Brewers rank behind the Cubs, with the Brewers only .12 behind the Cubs and the Pirates .34 back.  Now, as to those in front.... that is the bad news.  The Cards are leading the league, and doing so without much so far from Pujols.  The Cards are scoring 1.45 runs a game better than the Cubs and the Reds are second in the league, scoring 1.28 runs a game better than the Cubs.

The Cubs' biggest black hole is Pena, and it is entirely possible he will not get appreciably better, and also that he will not be replaced in the lineup for at least another two months.  For every other starter in the Cubs' lineup, you look at what they are doing now, their ages, their career averages, and what they did last year, and it is not hard to see them each individually performing about the same for the rest of the season (except for Fukudome, who will see his numbers fall sharply), and for Soriano, while his performance could remain as strong as it has been, it would also not be surprising to see him fall sharply.

While the Cubs are second in the league in BA, BA is not a particularly meaningful offensive stat, and each of the other teams in the top four in the league are also in the Central, with the 3rd and 4th place teams not far behind the Cubs -- Houston is 3 points behind the Cubs and the Reds are just 6 points back (while the Cards lead the league, batting 23 points better than the Cubs).

In OBP the Cubs are 5th in the league, 39 points behind the Cards and 12 points behind the Reds, and only 4 points ahead of the Astros and 12 ahead of the Brewers.

But when you look at OPS+, which adjusts also for the parks the teams have played in, it appears the Cubs may have benefited from having played in friendly parks so far.  The Cubs rank a nice 5th in the league in raw OPS at .723, though well behind the Cards and Reds (1st and 2nd) at .808 and .758, and the Cubs are only 17 points better than the league average, and 15 points better than the Brewers.  Again, those were the raw OPS #s.  The OPS+ has the Cubs 10th, two places behind the league average.  The Cubs have an OPS+ of 92, only ahead of the Pirates in the Central, with the Cards at 125, the Reds 2nd at 109, the Astros 5th at 98, the Brewers 7th at 95.

The Cubs are next to last in steals, with only 7, compared to a league average of 21, but the Padres are the team leading the league in steals, with 37 (and are last in runs/game at 3.16), so steals are not necessarily a great way to score runs.

The Cubs are 11th in HR, at 26, and that is only 2 below the league average of 28, so they could easily move up there.... but how much of a boost would that give?  Suppose they jumped to 6th in HR (easily possible)... which would only require and additional 3 HR.  What would that give in runs scored?  Let's attribute 2 runs/HR (which is likely a bit high, but let's do it).  Those added 6 runs would increase the runs/game by about .2, which would still leave the Cubs short of the league average and move them ahead of no other team.

And one thing we might want to remember when pointing the finger at Pena, Colvin has actually been worse.  Colvin has 60 PA (Pena 97) and an OPS of .513, compared to .569 for Pena.  If Colvin improves, that could make a big difference, and might provide an option at 1B if Pena continues to s*ck, but it also would not be all that surprising to see Colvin continue to struggle enough he needs to return to the minors to figure things out.

Is it possible that the leaders in the division will come down enough, and the Cubs will improve enough, that the Cubs will actually "be competitive" in September?

Sure.  Just as it is possible to flip a coin 30 straight times and have it come up heads each time.

Of course, I am going to bet against those 30 straight coin tosses coming up heads, and sanity would have management start looking to 2012 and beyond.... which it should have been doing at least after last season, if not after 2010.

Instead, the Cubs tried to make the team "competitive" in 2011, getting a "solid" starter in Garza.... and giving up Guyer (who made his major league debut last night with a HR in his first AB), Fuld (who had no role with the Cubs, but still has an OPS+ of 106 despite his recent slump, and is playing excellent defense), Hak-Ju Lee (who at age 20 is hitting .397 with an OPS of 1.037 as a SS in high A ball), and Archer (who last year looked like one of the best starting prospects in the Cub system.

That is the kind of move which makes a lot of sense for a team on the cusp of winning.... but which seems short-sighted when the team is what we saw last year.