Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57434 times)

StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #420 on: May 09, 2011, 02:02:45 pm »

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #421 on: May 09, 2011, 03:12:43 pm »
From the Scotti/Hendry/Rosenthal article . . .
 
Shortstop Starlin Castro, second baseman Darwin Barney and right-hander Andrew Cashner are the vanguard of a wave of young talent that should leave the Cubs positioned to contend for the next several years.
 
I hate saying it, but you're talking about two guys in Castro (patience, fielding, possibly power) and Cashner (lack of proven durability and innings, hasn't shown consistency) who are pretty flawed players and may not ever totally overcome all of them.  And whether you love Barney or still worry if he's a little bit of a fluke, you have to at least admit his ceiling no higher than a role player that you'll be looking to move once he starts becoming expensive.  Basically Barney is Jeff Keppinger or Mark Grudzielanek right now, and while the farm needs to produce players of that caliber, those are not cornerstone type players either. 
 
If two relatively flawed players and a role player make up the "vanguard" of the Cubs farm system talent, while I still like Castro and Cashner's potential, I'm not sure it's making for a convincing argument for keeping Hendry either.
 
As far as there being a wave of young talent on the horizon, about the only two true impact guys we have on the farm right now for the near term are Brett Jackson and Trey McNutt, and it's still questionable what kinds of ceilings those two have.  We may not be talking about two future perennial all-stars there either. 
 
We have fairly respectable farm system production, but this isn't a Kansas City or Tampa circa 2008 wave that's going on here.  Right now at least in 2011, the farm system certainly isn't saving Jim Hendry, and it hasn't done enough to make up for all of the old expensive players that are dragging down the roster.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #422 on: May 09, 2011, 03:12:54 pm »
Basically for the Cubs in the upcoming 3-4 years, our young nucleus will hopefully be Castro, B. Jackson, Soto, Garza, Cashner, McNutt, and Marmol, with hopefully Barney and Colvin being good role players and possibly a guy like LeMahieu or Flaherty becoming another average major league regular.  That's not bad, but it's still going to require very good decision making by Hendry or a new GM to bring in outside talent to surround them.  At least at this point, that's not a nucleus that's going to do it by itself.  If Hendry keeps making mediocre/bad decisions on long term contracts, the young talent isn't going to be good enough to make this a consistent winner.

You're seeing a lot of it play out this year.  We may have Castro, Barney, Garza, Marmol, and Soto already on the roster, but when you surround those guys with mostly garbage, it's not going to be a very good team.  I'm not sure getting a "wave" of B. Jackson, a healthy Cashner, and McNutt exactly elevates the talent level to a 95-100 win team. 
« Last Edit: May 09, 2011, 03:18:57 pm by JR »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #423 on: May 09, 2011, 03:24:09 pm »
I'd like to keep wilkin.  Not sure that hiring a new GM would necessitate junking Wilken or the commitment to drafting, scouting, and international procurement.


JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #424 on: May 09, 2011, 03:25:26 pm »
I'd like to keep wilkin.  Not sure that hiring a new GM would necessitate junking Wilken or the commitment to drafting, scouting, and international procurement.

That's absolutely true.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #425 on: May 09, 2011, 04:09:26 pm »
The notion that this farm system is a bonanza about to produce a glorious age is ludicrous.  Before the Garza trade, it was above-average.  Now, it's probably charitable to call it an average system, especially in terms of impact players.  It still has a decent quantity of guys who have the potential to make MLB rosters.  It has very few that have a chance to be All-stars.  To say that Hendry should keep his job because the team is about to soar on wings of his genius in an incredibly lame argument, even by Rosenthal's standards.  Hendry has failed - he needs to be fired with extreme prejudice.

You could make a case that Wilkin has been good enough to warrant keeping his job, but for me it's borderline.  He's wasted far too many high picks on guys no other scouting director has ever heard of, most of whom has flamed out already.  I think it's difficult to make a case that any of his first-round picks aside from Brett Jackson look really smart in retrospect.  He's done a decent job stocking the system with pitching depth and he's found a few gems on the international market, as it looks today.  He hasn't been terrible but I'd shed no tears if he were jettisoned as part of a complete housecleaning.

Alas, I suspect Ricketts has no intentions of firing Hendry and it wouldn't shock me if he signed him to a new deal after 2012, even if it's another mediocre (or worse) season.  I've seen nothing since Ricketts bought the team that would indicate he has either the inclination, ability, or deep pockets to be a "win at any costs" owner.  He seems to view the Cubs as his personal plaything and to be someone who would overvalue "personal loyalty" such as he sees in Hendry.

grrrrlacher

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #426 on: May 09, 2011, 04:14:44 pm »
Anyone here think the Cubs should make a play for Reyes?  And move either him or Castro to 2B?  It would be nice to finally have a legit leadoff man for several years instead of trying a different one every year.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #427 on: May 09, 2011, 04:24:01 pm »
"He's wasted far too many high picks on guys no other scouting director has ever heard of, most of whom has flamed out already."

I have lost track.  How many have flamed out already?

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #428 on: May 09, 2011, 04:26:39 pm »
Well, you sure as hell wouldn't move Reyes to 2B to leave Castro at SS.  This would never happen in a million years, but if the Mets were giving him away?  Sure - you'd love to have a guy like that.  If he can stay healthy for the year, though, figure you'd need to pay him $16-18 million per to keep him - and most likely sign a long-term deal that would commit you to him until long after his speed has started to decline radically.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #429 on: May 09, 2011, 05:21:59 pm »
Stolen from a friend at another board, regarding the argument to keep Hendry in Rosenthal's article because there's free agents to be signed:

I wonder if Rosenthal is aware of that deal (for Grabow) along with Bradley, Miles and Fukudome when he suggests that the Cubs should resign Hendry because they might have $60 mil to spend in free agency. I'm not a big Rosenthal basher, nor am I a fan, but that line of logic is as convoluted as one can be.


Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #430 on: May 09, 2011, 05:37:13 pm »
Stolen from a friend at another board, regarding the argument to keep Hendry in Rosenthal's article because there's free agents to be signed:

I wonder if Rosenthal is aware of that deal (for Grabow) along with Bradley, Miles and Fukudome when he suggests that the Cubs should resign Hendry because they might have $60 mil to spend in free agency. I'm not a big Rosenthal basher, nor am I a fan, but that line of logic is as convoluted as one can be.


I'm not entirely sure of what this post is intended to mean but,at any rate, here is the operative paragraph from the Rosenthal column:

The Cubs, with nearly $50 million in expiring contracts, are indeed reaching a crossroads - third baseman Aramis Ramirez, outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, first baseman Carlos Pena and left-handed reliever John Grabow all are in the final years of deals.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #431 on: May 09, 2011, 05:43:06 pm »
What he intended was that Rosenthal is inferring that the Cubs should WANT Jim Hendry at the controls when we start spending all that free agent money.  He is pointing out that Jimbo Buffet has not had a good track record with free agent spending per $$$ or years for the past three or four years.

ben

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #432 on: May 09, 2011, 05:57:43 pm »
"Hendry has failed - he needs to be fired with extreme prejudice."    Bingo!

The assessment that Ricketts appears to be "someone who would overvalue loyalty" also seems increasingly accurate as every day, month and year passes.


Eastcoastfan

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #433 on: May 09, 2011, 08:15:51 pm »
In re the comparisons between the Ricketts and the McCaskeys that are starting to appear:  Wouldn't it be nice if the Cubs were some day as good as the Bears, relatively speaking?

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #434 on: May 10, 2011, 08:34:46 am »
After 17 home games last season, the Cubs attracted 655,269 fans for an average of 38,545, according to Baseball-Reference.com. After 17 home games this season, the Cubs have drawn 592,281 for an average of 34,840.

Attendance is tickets sold, not fans in the ballpark, so the weather can't be the only reason.