Author Topic: Cubs in '11  (Read 57309 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #660 on: May 18, 2011, 09:10:38 pm »
It's a no lose bet, JR.  Go eat more White Castle burgers and let the big boys alone.  If the Cubs are in the pre-season before Garza, great!  I'll gladly pay for Dave's steak.  If they don't, well, frankly, honestly, when you think about it, it won't taste that hot no matter who buys it.  I guess it does have a down side.

Curt - I suspect that you mis-spoke. The Cubs almost certainly will be in the pre-season come next March.  Perhaps you meant the post-season?

davep

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #661 on: May 18, 2011, 09:43:21 pm »
Don't criticize the pride of the NEA.  He said pre-season, and he meant pre-season.  One steak coming up.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #662 on: May 18, 2011, 09:43:54 pm »
I've been tricked!

Bamboozled!

This means I can never again go to Memphis!

craig

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #663 on: May 19, 2011, 07:16:49 am »
Cool to have speedy Campana having stolen a base and created a run yesterday.  Really fun.

Lots of buzz on the speed, fastest since Lou Brock, talk like that. 

Not to be a downer, but it's interesting that no matter how fast he may be, that Campana wasn't all that great of a base-stealer in the minors.  This year in 30 games at Iowa, he stole only 8 bases.  So it's not like a single is really as good as a double.  If you're stealing a base only once every four games, that's not THAT big.  Likewise he reached base at least 47 times (H + BB), 37 of those times reaching 1B.  But he attempted only 9 steals.  So it's basiclaly only about a 25% chance at the minors steal that he'll even try to steal when he's on base.  Not quite like a walk is an automatic double....

In AA, he attempted to steal more frequently, and stole 48 bases, and attempted 68, so that's some serious volume.  68 steal attempts and he reached base 200 times, so it's still not much off from a 1-chance-in-3 that he'll try to steal.  And as fast and quick as he may be, he succeeded at 70.5%.  I think typically 67% is considered to be the break point for whether it's even worthile.  So his stealing was barely useful, if at all, in AA. 

My point is that if his whole value is primarily as a base-stealer, and he didn't steal very frequently in AAA and his stealing was barely useful in AA, that he might not steal very often and might not steal very usefully here. 


Hope I'm wrong.  I think stealing is one of the most fun and exciting plays in baseball, so even if a guy is getting thrown out 30% so that it's arguably useful, I still love to watch and want him to try every time.  (We aren't contending anyway, so who cares how it impacts wins   :) )  One of the reasons I love it is because you can anticipate it.  A HR is exciting, but in the 150 pitches a team throws in a game, I can't totally hang on every one of them thinking it might be a HR.  It's so rare and random.  But when a volume base-stealer reaches 1B, it's kind of obvious:  there's a fair chance he's going to try to steal.  So then I want to watch every pitch, is he going to go on this one?  But, if a guy only steals once every four times he's on 1B (Campana at Iowa), then the odds on any particular pitch aren't all that high and it might not be that worthwhile to stop everything to watch the next pitch. 

« Last Edit: May 19, 2011, 07:44:25 am by craig »

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #664 on: May 19, 2011, 08:10:39 am »
Man, that guy Craig can be a downer.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #665 on: May 19, 2011, 08:12:36 am »
Yeah can't we at least go a couple of days thinking Campana could be the next Ty Cobb before dousing us with reality?

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #666 on: May 19, 2011, 08:29:59 am »
Cobb?  Lou Brock.  The Curse Begins to Reverse!

JDub

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #667 on: May 19, 2011, 08:36:09 am »
Maybe Campana is just the fastest Cub since Ced Landrum.

I've been reading you guys since the late 90's, and I have to say that Cincy series is probably the most upset I've seen everyone with the team & mangement since those Lynch/Riggleman/Don Baylor/Rick Aguilera trade days.

That said, I'm right there with you. I'm becoming more apathetic towards this team on a daily basis

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #668 on: May 19, 2011, 08:58:09 am »
Over the years I've begun to appreciate how many "lurkers" we have who never or hardly ever post, for whatever reason.  Thanks for checking in!

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #669 on: May 19, 2011, 09:00:41 am »
Does everyone have access to the Membership list, or is that just an Administrative function?

If you can all access it, just check it out.  Look at all those logged on who have fewer than five posts or who have NEVER posted.  We had that at World Crossing, too, although Dave and I realize you couldn't see it there, but we could.  This board has a broader following than most.

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #670 on: May 19, 2011, 09:10:12 am »
ChicagoCubsOnline

If you do not like Reed Johnson, then I assume you do not like cheeseburgers. Or pizza.

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #671 on: May 19, 2011, 09:15:41 am »
Does everyone have access to the Membership list, or is that just an Administrative function?

If you can all access it, just check it out.  Look at all those logged on who have fewer than five posts or who have NEVER posted.  We had that at World Crossing, too, although Dave and I realize you couldn't see it there, but we could.  This board has a broader following than most.
There do not appear to be any restrictions

One name with zero posts:  GeorgiaCub

Clarkaddison

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #672 on: May 19, 2011, 09:38:56 am »
Is Campana faster than Fernando Perez?  And has Perez learned to steal first base?

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #673 on: May 19, 2011, 09:44:49 am »
Naked Man Runs Across Field During Marlins vs Cubs Baseball Game!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiMcd4tya88&feature=player_embedded

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '11
« Reply #674 on: May 19, 2011, 09:55:42 am »
It's been years since TV cameras showed fans on the field, clothed or not.  I don't know if it helped or not, but knowing you are going to be on YouTube might be encouragement enough for some of the idiots.