Bleacher Bums Forum

A big problem with the Hendry regime that always seems to get overlooked (and was overlooked in that article) is lack of consistent farm system production.

We still haven't produced a geniunely great franchise player during the entire term he's been here.  Sure we've had guys who flashed greatness for a short period of time like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.  We had some guys who were good for one year or two like Rich Hill and Corey Patterson.  We've had good complimentary players like Sean Marshall, Ryan Theriot, Randy Wells, and most recently Darwin Barney.  We currently have guys like Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto who show great potential but for one reason or another haven't reached it yet.  We've produced decent but overrated trade bait like Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill, Sean Gallagher, Justin Jones, etc.  We've produced some pitchers who have done decent but not great things for other teams like Dontrelle Willis, Jon Garland, Ricky Nolasco, and Kyle Lohse. 

But the only two guys during the entire Hendry regime that have come up through the farm and have proved to be long term assets thus far are Carlos Zambrano and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately Zambrano has spent as much time being an overpaid and erratic headcase as he's been a true frontline pitcher for us, and while Marmol is certainly terrific, you need more than a good closer to be a consistent year to year winner. 

This is the biggest reason why the Cubs have to give 8 years to Soriano, 3 years to Bradley, 3 years to Marquis, $10 million to Pena, $12 million per year to Dempster, $13 million per year to Fukudome, etc.  Our farm system hasn't done a good enough job of filling holes for a long period of time, and so Hendry has to go overpay veterans to keep his job and to keep the team afloat.  Overpaying veterans for too many years is a lot of times a good short term fix, as '07 and '08 showed, but it can cripple a franchise when they start becoming less effective, which is where we've been these last three years.

Maybe we do have a bumper crop of prospects coming up, although we've heard that one before.  But lack of farm production up to this point is still one of the biggest reasons why Hendry is on the hot seat, and if this bumper crop does actually turn out to be good, it may still be too little too late for Hendry.

JR- Your point is well taken, but Hendry would also say that drafting and player development is also for using those guys to acquire other guys in trades.  So, in his eyes, you should take that into account and Aramis and D.Lee and Garza are essentially products of the farm system.  Aramis was awfully good for several years, D.Lee great for one year, and Garza--remains to be seen.  Castro has a pretty decent chance to be great or near-great, so maybe he will be the jewel of the Hendry era. Still, the Stockstill period set the Cubs back for quite awhile. 

A big problem with the Hendry regime that always seems to get overlooked (and was overlooked in that article) is lack of consistent farm system production.

We still haven't produced a geniunely great franchise player during the entire term he's been here.  Sure we've had guys who flashed...  We've had good complimentary players ....  We currently have guys like Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto ....  We've produced decent but overrated trade bait ....  We've produced some pitchers who have done decent but not great things for other teams ..... 

But the only two guys during the entire Hendry regime that have come up through the farm and have proved to be long term assets thus far are Carlos Zambrano and Carlos Marmol.  ....

This is the biggest reason why the Cubs have to give 8 years to Soriano....  Our farm system hasn't done a good enough job of filling holes for a long period of time, and so Hendry has to go overpay veterans ....  Overpaying veterans for too many years is a lot of times a good short term fix, as '07 and '08 showed, but it can cripple a franchise when they start becoming less effective, which is where we've been these last three years.

Maybe we do have a bumper crop of prospects coming up....  But lack of farm production up to this point is still one of the biggest reasons why Hendry is on the hot seat, and if this bumper crop does actually turn out to be good, it may still be too little too late for Hendry.

excellent points, absolutely true.  Hendry's became the farm director in 1995 and first ran the draft in 1996.  So he's had 15 years of procurment-and-development.  And the farm just hasn't produced long-term assets for us.  The farm has not produced players who were worth keeping and who could be build-around cornerstone players.  It has not produced consistent long-term assets who you could count on being an asset every year, who you weren't looking to upgrade; and who you'd be willing to pay market for as a FA. 

1.  Cub-signed pitchers who have pitched at least 150 innings in a season more than three times for the Cubs:    Carlos Zambrano.   Kerry Wood reach 150 innings three times, Mark Prior and Randy Wells twice each. 

2.  Cub-signed players who have had more than three 500AB seasons for the Cubs:  zero. 
*The best long-term contributors as regulars that Hendry has produced for the Cubs have been Theriot (three 500 AB seasons), and Corey (two 500 AB seasons.) Neither were good enough to want to keep beyond their arb years. 

3.  Guys signed during Hendry's 15 year tenure who have been good enough/healthy enough to earn 1500 AB's for the Cubs:  Two, Theriot and Patterson. Soto has 1333

4.  Another angle is to think about players that we brought up that we still wanted to keep when they were at or approaching FA?  Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall.

We just haven't been filling spots with good players from the farm that are sustainably good, that you want to keep around for long, and that are able to build up a volume of production. 

I admit I am an optimist, so I hope that somehow the current farm players will be different. 
*Soto, maybe, although with his injuries and his defensive issues, I'm not sure he'll age very well. 
*Castro, hopefully, in some role.  He's so talented, he should be a long-term guy in some capacity.  I wonder if he'll ever get a lot better?
*Barney?  I could see him being a long-term guy, although he's never going to be a star.  Also possible that by the time he's approaching FA, he'll look kinda like Theriot. 
*Brett Jackson? 
*DJ Lemahieu?
*Ryan Flaherty?
*Ha? 
*Vitters?
*Bour?
*Szczur?

Hard to know who might settling in as a long-term keeper.  Always guys to hope for.  But not sure these are guys who are likely to be the best player on a championship team.   

And you thought it could not get worse--Cubs plan to fix Saturday's game so Red Sox can win.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/10931/sox-cubs-to-wear-1918-throwbacks-saturday

Anyone think Casey Coleman would make a decent reliever?  I just went through his boxscores and out of 7 starts the only start in which he gave up a first inning run was his first one, April 10th against the Brewers when he gave up 2, assuming i didn't miss one, as i didn't double check.  Of course, it could just be small sample size.

On the farm development thing, do I remember seeing a statistic talking about the top organizations for producing hitters and pitchers over the last decade/15 years or some such?  it seems I remember the Cubs being toward the top of that list in pitching, and, of course, dang near bottom in hitting.  This list included productivity for not just the Cubs but prospects they traded away before they had a chance to contribute to the Cubs.  I think I remember seeing it posted on the other board anyway.

I know this question is pointless, but i'm curious.  On Juan Pierre, i know a lot on this board disliked the trade, as i did myself.  But, if he had come through our organization as a prospect, understanding this board's love for prospects(and mine too  lol) and not been someone we acquired in a trade that no one liked, would anyone here have looked at him differently or is he a guy you would have disliked anyway? 

Jones is another on my list of most disliked Cubs, tho there are many that rank higher.  I think Alfonseca would have to lead the list tho, even tho there were many that performed worse...i just could not stand him for some reason.

"I think Alfonseca would have to lead the list tho, even tho there were many that performed worse...i just could not stand him for some reason."....
because he 11 or 12 fingers?

could care less bout that....thought that was actually sorta cool.  lol