Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 31050 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1770 on: November 02, 2015, 08:28:22 pm »

...Cubs leading league in Ks by huge margin in an era of Ks dwarfing other eras in Ks--no, I would not assume that's inevitable. Just get it down to something a bit more manageable.  Reduce Ks by near 200 and you can do this.  ...
Certainly true that Ks going way up in last 10 seasons. Average NL team Ks: 2015:  1278 (Cubs 1518)
....

1.  I'm just thinking that we're not going to both add Baez and reduce K's by 200.  If we're going to play Baez and Bryant regularly, being at least 100K's above league average may need to be accepted as normal.  But yeah, hopefully we can cut back here and there, without sacrificing the good stuff people contribute. 

2.  If we replace some low value low-K Herrera AB's with some better-value high-K Baez AB's, I'm good with that!  :)  Even if the K's go up higher still in those AB's! 

3.  If we replace a lot of good-value Fowler AB's, the K's may well go down but I'm not sure we'll be a better team as a result.  Fowler was a very good contributor for us, as was high-K Montero. The purpose is still to have as good a team as possible, so let's not lose sight of the big goal.  Reducing the K's but weakening the team has limited appeal....

4.  "Denorfia/A. Jackson/Baxter/Lake/Alcantara/Olt had 126 Ks in only 486 Pas".  OK, I'm not contesting the value of replacing Olt/Alcantara/Lake and their no value high-K AB's!  Although I'd be fine if Baez replaced all 486 of those PA's, even if he doesn't reduce the K-rate at all.  (Which I doubt he would, if given that many AB.)  But if LaStella was picking up 250 of those AB while hitting .290, that would be just fine. 

5.  Agree that Bryant might cut down some.  Soler and Russell could each cut down significantly.  I suspect Schwarber could also cut down some if he made that a priority. 

6.  Schwarber, Soler, Russell, as well as Bryant I think all three have the capacity to naturally improve.  Plus each has the capacity to cut down their swings situationally.  Each also has the capacity to adjust approach and swing more aggressively early in counts and reduce their 2-strike counts.  To what degree possibly associated reductions in walks and/or HR's would offset some of the advantages is unclear to me. 

7.  If 1278 is league average, I'd love to get it down to 1400 without otherwise compromising anything good.  Still not sure how realistic that is if the present five youngsters all play full-time.  Not sure 1450, for example, would be unacceptable on a yearly basis if that's the price of doing business and if those five guys are hitting ≥125 HR's with the three infielders all playing good defense. 

8.  Not sure they'll get a deal for Baez that they'll want, or Soler.  Think it's pretty likely both will be back this year, K's and all.  And if Baez and Soler hit like they may be able to to, 97-wins-per-year  with 1500K may be an annual and acceptable thing.