Gray and Hamels have identical 6.9 f-WAR 2014-15 to date.
Love Gray--that's why brought up the subject--but, for me, an established Ace at Hamels age, with no history of arm problems, is at least as good a bet for excellence in next 4 years as a guy with a two-year history in majors--especially an unusually small starting pitcher like Gray.
The ten pitchers baseball-reference.com lists as most similar to Hamels by age are the following:
Jake Peavy (953)
Doug Drabek (951)
Kevin Appier (948)
Dan Haren (947)
Jose Rijo (945)
Zack Greinke (936)
Bob Welch (935)
Sid Fernandez (935)
Tim Lincecum (931)
Jim Bunning (931)
And here is why:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=hamelco01:Cole%20Hamels&st=age&compage=30&age=30Of those, I believe only Bunning really offered considerable value after they were the same age Hamels at the end of last season. Bunning had a WAR of about 32 over his next five years; Lincecum has only this season after he was the same age as Hamels at the end of last year, and Lincecum has been nothing more than a replacement value pitcher this year; Sid Fernandez about 3.7; Welch 11.5; Grienke is at 6.6 this year; Rijo was injured for the next five years; Haren a .8 for his three and a half seasons since he was the same age; Appier 9.7 over the next 5 years; Drabek 2.9 over the next five; Peavey 8.6 for his next four and a half season.
Forgive me for thinking that is not a strong indication Hamels should be counted on to remain a strong pitcher after this season.
Gray, on the other hand, BEFORE this season had his ten top comps and their WAR in their next 5 years as follows:
Matt Morris (991) 9.6
Pedro Astacio (988) 5.2
Jeremy Hellickson (981) 2.9 over three and a half years
Joey Hamilton (979) 8.6
Freddie Fitzsimmons (978) 8.8
Roscoe Miller (975) 1.4
Dan Schatzeder (975) 3.8
Doc Medich (974) 10.3
David Palmer (974) 5.9
Steve Gromek (972 7.6