Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 31051 times)

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1755 on: October 31, 2015, 06:01:43 pm »
Extending Arrietta makes a lot of sense from the Cubs' perspective - except for the cost.  He may be almost 30 but he has low mileage and won't be carrying a TJS anniversary in a few years.  If it were possible to lock him up for the long-term at a remotely reasonable cost I don't know why you wouldn't do it.  But it's almost certainly not going to be possible.

You don't know what it would cost until you try to do it.

I am not saying that extending him should be the team's top priority, but merely mentioned Arietta as a player the Cubs might possibly be interested in response to a post suggesting there is really no one else the Cubs even might have any real interest in extending.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1756 on: October 31, 2015, 06:10:36 pm »
I hate the offseason

http://www.imaginesports.com/

It looks interesting.

How have you done?  And how many leagues are there?  Are there league for each season (meaning would there be a league organized for each of the past seasons of MLB)?  How long does a person need to wait after picking a team before the season starts?

FDISK

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1757 on: October 31, 2015, 06:36:20 pm »
There are many leagues running simultaneously.  Both "classic" (historical) and replays of modern seasons. I'm just guessing...but I would say there are scores of historical leagues running at any one time. Some are "standard", some are "custom" leagues with an amazing array of varieties. I'm thinking middle aged baseball geeks trying to relive their stratomatic childhood.

As far as how I've done? I'm leader board...barely...but the leader board is the top 500 players.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1758 on: November 01, 2015, 10:35:11 am »
It was announced last week that Dan Haren was officially retiring.  No shocker.  I was surprised at what a super career he had.  3 All Star games, 3.47 ERA, and he is in an elite small group with a W against all 30 MLB teams.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1759 on: November 01, 2015, 10:48:26 am »
Dan Haren ranks seventh all time in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1760 on: November 01, 2015, 02:23:52 pm »
Dan Haren ranks seventh all time in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Wow.

And I used to think that was actually a very meaningful stat.

DelMarFan

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1761 on: November 02, 2015, 12:43:08 pm »
Haren is currently in Bill James top 50 pitchers list.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1762 on: November 02, 2015, 02:02:14 pm »
Just something to add in comparing the Cubs and Royals offenses.

The Cubs had a .244 BA to go with a .321 OBP in 6,200 PA.

The Royals had a .269 BA to go with a .322 OBP in 6,116 PA. 

They both had roughly the same OBP, but the Royals had an OBP that was more hit heavy. 

The Cubs need to be better at getting base hits next season.  Hopefully that'll come with just some of the natural improvement of the young players, but I still think it's still falls in line with hit heavy OBP's being better than walk heavy OBP's. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1763 on: November 02, 2015, 02:18:01 pm »
Other thing is that we saw in the Series that base runners can advance in crucial situations on batted ball outs and that putting balls in play puts some pressure on the defense---sometimes resulting in big errors. Put another way, it's not all measurable with OBP or other stats. Mostly, but not entirely. What's not always measurable sometimes wins the ballgame. Even BIG games.

Also, Cubs really improved their base running in 2015, and were more aggressive running bases, but the historically high Ks made it tougher to take advantage. The notion that Ks are just another form of an out--no problem--should be considered discredited. Ks are bad. Putting balls in play--even if most result in outs--is better.

So, let's K a bit less in 2016 and balance the offense a bit better. This is a homer/BB/K core but we don't have to endure historically high Ks.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1764 on: November 02, 2015, 05:16:04 pm »
Good chance we do.  K's are at a historic record league-wide, no?  Especially if Baez remains part of the core or gets incorporated into the core;  Baez/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell, hard to compile a more K-oriented core than that.   A max-K core in a max-K era, historically high K's may be almost inevitable?  I imagine in past, a max-K group would get reshuffled to address that.  If they were to keep a Baez/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell core together for 5-6 years, isn't it almost more probable than not that the Cubs should be expected to compile the highest 5-year K-collection in baseball history? 

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1765 on: November 02, 2015, 05:37:29 pm »
Is it unreasonable to expect young players to meaningfully improve their K rates with more ML experience?

davep

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1766 on: November 02, 2015, 06:11:28 pm »
If I understand some of the above posts, when you adjust for the fact that the the Royals have a DH, while the Cubs have pitchers and pinch hitters, they each scored pretty much the same numbers of runs.  Certainly, they each arrived at it by different methods, but the results were pretty much the same.

When all is said and done, it is only the results that matter.  Would the Cubs be a better team if they reduced strike outs, and kept everything the same?  Of course.  But would everything be kept the same?  Who knows.  The Royals struck out much less than the Cubs, but arrived at roughly the same production level, because in order to do that, they sacrificed something else - power.

The Cubs, like every team, should always try to improve their overall production, whether it is offense or defense (including pitching).  But it is not always clear that a specific action will improve the team, if you have to sacrifice other things to gain that improvement.

There is always the chance that the team will make a blockbuster trade if one presents itself.  But I don't think that they are in the situation that they feel they have to, merely to reduce strike outs.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1767 on: November 02, 2015, 06:12:19 pm »
 
Good chance we do.  K's are at a historic record league-wide, no?  Especially if Baez remains part of the core or gets incorporated into the core;  Baez/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell, hard to compile a more K-oriented core than that.   A max-K core in a max-K era, historically high K's may be almost inevitable?  I imagine in past, a max-K group would get reshuffled to address that.  If they were to keep a Baez/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell core together for 5-6 years, isn't it almost more probable than not that the Cubs should be expected to compile the highest 5-year K-collection in baseball history? 

Well, it's one thing if there's a player leading the league in HRs for a 5-year period and then there's Babe Ruth leading the AL in homers in 1920 and beyond--and obliterating everybody else including entire teams.  Cubs leading league in Ks by huge margin in an era of Ks dwarfing other eras in Ks--no, I would not assume that's inevitable. Just get it down to something a bit more manageable.

Reduce Ks by near 200 and you can do this.  It can be done in one season with the right guys but a 5-year period? Why not?  Montero/Ross had 164 Ks this season in 585 PAs. Even parts of the bench had too many Ks:  Denorfia/A. Jackson/Baxter/Lake/Alcantara/Olt had 126 Ks in only 486 PAs.  Fowler was 2nd on club in Ks and likely will be gone. Pretty confident that Russell will cut down on Ks.  Russell had 59 Ks/323 PAs in high minors, so would not assume can't cut down after an age 21 season in majors.  Would expect Bryant to follow perhaps Stanton--who struck out 31.1% rookie season and about 28% thereafter career. Expect Schwarber to cut down at least slightly.  Guessing either Baez or Soler will be gone. Don't think historically high Ks going forward is inevitable.

Certainly true that Ks going way up in last 10 seasons. Average NL team Ks:

2015:  1278 (Cubs 1518)

2010:  1193

2005:  1055

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1768 on: November 02, 2015, 06:49:53 pm »
Is it unreasonable to expect young players to meaningfully improve their K rates with more ML experience?

Rizzo except for 2009 and a couple small sample sizes was a low 20% K% guy in the minors. When he was traded to the Cubs he's been 18%, until this year when it dropped to 15%.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1769 on: November 02, 2015, 08:07:14 pm »
Haren is currently in Bill James top 50 pitchers list.

There are currently 74 pitcher in the HOF.

Would anyone like to make book on whether Haren joins that list?