Bleacher Bums Forum

Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him.  Doing so would generally be countproductive.  However, it is probably too large of a jump to think that not saying they are going to fire someone is proof that they are indeed going to do so.

Last year, many pointed out that the offense had declined, or at the very least, not improved over 2016.  Last year, they fired the hitting coach.  This year, it got even worse. 

One year is much too small a sample size to evaluate any manager, hitting coach or pitching coach.  There are just too many random variables.

If Bryant had had a healthy shoulder all year, how much better would he have been?  If Russell had not hurt his hand in July, how much better would he have been?  Did the production of Contreras go down because he was injured, because he was overworked, or because the hitting coach screwed him up?  Could any coach level out the peaks and valleys of Baez's magnificent - horrible hitting streaks?  Could any hitting coach restore Heyward to his pre-signing level.  For that matter, could any hitting coach totally revamp the philosophy and lifelong techniques of an entire team in a single year?

I have always been under the belief that the Manager is of less importance to the performance of a team that at least 20 of the 25 man roster.  Which is probably why many on the team with more than 5 years of experience is probably making more money than the manager.  Epstein can try to pacify part of the fan base by firing a coach or manager, but regardless, he has to make decisions about his playing personnel.

But hindsight doesn't help much. 

It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them.  They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman.  They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana.  Candelario went for Wilson.  A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa.

Two years ago, several recommended trading Schwarber.  At that time, his trade value was quite high, and a trade would probably have worked out well for the Cubs.  Two years ago, several recommended trading Baez.  At that time his trade value was fairly high, and a trade would probably have worked out very badly for the Cubs.

Regardless of what we did or did not do two years ago, we live in the present.  Schwarber will not bring back the quality of player that he would have brought two years ago.  Nor would Almora or Russell.  Or Happ.  None of them would likely bring back players that will substantially improve either the offense or the defense.  Would the value of the players received exceed the value of the potential of these players to achieve production that at matches their talent.

These are the decisions that Epstein and Hoyer have to make.  As a fan, the only thing I have to judge their ability to make good decisions is to look at the success of the team over their tenure.  I realize that many don't agree with me, but for the last four years, they have been the team I have longed for over the decades.  They have been in the playoffs every year, winning the division three years and winning the World Series once.  I see no reason why this performance can not continue over the next four years.  And this is extremely good production.  Even the best team in baseball has odds of 3 to 1 against them as they enter the playoffs.  The teams are too closely matched, and each series is too short to prevent a lessor team getting hot or a better team getting cold, to have a success rate much better than that.  Since the advent of playoffs, how many teams have repeated World Series Championships, even at a time when spending was pretty much unlimited for the large market teams?

I want the Cubs to be the 1990s Braves - in the fight right up to the end, making the season enjoyable from start to finish - and that is what the Ricketts family and the current front office has given us.  Their success has far exceeded rational expectations, and I see no reason to believe that will change in the near future.

In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others.  But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.

I didn't want to dignify my quip with purple.