Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 67462 times)

Ron

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7551
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4230 on: December 21, 2018, 09:41:53 am »
On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs.  I don't think that's true, apart from merit.

The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder.  If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot.  Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS.  But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell. 

The larger question is merit.  Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit.  But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons.  So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.     

Tulowitzky played in only one full season in Toronto. His first season was 2015 (183 AB), after being blind-sided and deeply upset by the trade from the Rockies.  His only full season was following year, 2016, when he had an OPS of .761.  He was injured in 2017 and played in only 66 games.  I'm guessing his performance may have been related to his injury. His last full season before the trade (2014), he had an OPS of 1.035, and his OPS in 2015 before the trade was .818.  Who knows what kind of player he'd be in 2019 and beyond, but I don't think his performance with the Blue Jays should necessarily preclude the potential for him to perform well going forward.

Reb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1610
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4231 on: December 21, 2018, 11:36:34 am »
Seems like Tuloís career path might be similar to Garciaparra. Both seemed like HOF locks until around age 30. Great players.

Thing to remember about Nomar is that he wasnít really a SS anymore next phase of his career. Thatís why Theo traded him to Cubs. Was hurt a lot with Cubs of course and then was a 1B before too long. Of course, same with Ernie Banks at similar age moving to 1B.

So, would not assume Tulo going to be a viable MIFer for remainder of his career, even if can hit.


craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10108
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4232 on: December 21, 2018, 02:56:59 pm »
Ron, thanks for good points.  I hadn't been looking very carefully at the volume. 

I'm not suggesting he might not be able to contribute offensively.  Maybe yes, maybe no?  I don't know whether he might clear 100 OPS+, and don't imagine Hoyer knows either.  I've got no problem with taking a shot; but wouldn't count on him being an asset bat.

Uncertainty goes with Russell, too.  Not defensively:  we know if he's healthy his defense will be *really* good.  But bat-wise, he's been OPS+ 74-84-94-91.  So who know whether he'll be on the 74 end or the 94 end of his career range?  With pitchers having a full book on him by now, and his confidence shattered , I'd guess he's more likely to be nearer the 74 end than the 94 end, and maybe he'll continue to get worse each year.  But who knows, maybe some miracle will happen and he'll have a career year and go >94, and maybe become only slightly below average as a hitter?  Who knows?  I don't, Hoyer doesn't, nobody does. 

That 2nd middle-infield position is up for grabs, and we don't know how any of Tulo, Russell, Bote, Zobrist, Descalso, or even Happ will hit.  Would be wrong to promise anything more than an opportunity to Tulo.  But it's not like there isn't an opportunity. 

The fact that Toronto waived him, despite dozens of committed millions, suggests they who know him and his health best aren't super optimistic that he'll be able to become a good hitter again.  But if the Cubs feel otherwise, it's not like Russell is such a sure thing that they couldn't consider other take-a-shot alternatives. 

Bennett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5405
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4233 on: December 27, 2018, 11:38:28 am »
3:01 worth of Cubs 2018 highlights with Statcast numbers for each

https://www.mlb.com/video/best-of-statcast-cubs/c-2521474183

Ron

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7551
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4234 on: December 28, 2018, 10:25:29 am »
Sahadev Sharma has a new column about Baseball Prospectus' new offensive stat: DRC+.

https://theathletic.com/735357/2018/12/27/how-one-new-statistic-values-the-2018-cubs-differently/?source=dailyemail

If I understand the column correctly, according to DRC+, Schwarber (38th among players) ranks higher than Baez (45th) for 2018.  Is that a correct reading, and if so, is there anyone who honestly believes Schwarber was a better offensive player than Baez in 2018?
Sad Sad x 1 View List

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13495
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4235 on: December 28, 2018, 10:45:39 am »
It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat canít capture yet.

I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.

Ron

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7551
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4236 on: December 28, 2018, 11:02:33 am »
It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat canít capture yet.

I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.

Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance.  It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to  Baez'.  Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.

Reb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1610
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4237 on: December 28, 2018, 02:08:23 pm »
Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance.  It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to  Baez'.  Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.

It depends what you want in a stat.

If youíre looking for insight into future performanceórather than what results the player actually achieved in 2018óthen perhaps itís going to be useful to look at a ďdeserved drivenĒ stat.

Everybody wants to peek into the future or to win their fantasy baseball league or whatever. Think that a stat like this is based on that sensibility. Donít know if itís going to be successful for that purpose going forward, but donít think a stat like this necessarily tells you accurately ďwhat happenedĒ in 2018.

Obviously, itís absurd to say that Schwarber had a better 2018 offensive season than Baez. Nobody is going to buy that. But, maybe useful that, going forward, Schwarber could be better? or close?

Iíve been spending a lot of time lately reading up on historical player performance. In that respect, donít really care much for predictive-type stats, such as pitcher FIP, for players whose career is long finished. For me, thatís just a curiosity and not a measurement of actual performance. So, think it would be unfortunate if predictive-type atats are ever used for career evaluation.

But, maybe different for ongoing careers. Remains to be seen.