First look at the 2018 payroll. Opening day 25-man payroll each of the past two seasons was right around $172 million.
Under contract:
OF Jason Heyward - $21,500,000
1B Anthony Rizzo - $7,000,000
OF/2B Ben Zobrist - $16,000,000
SP Jon Lester - $22,500,000
SP Jose Quintana - $8,350,000
RP Pedro Strop - $5,850,000
Eligible for salary arbitration (estimates from mlbtraderumors.com):
3B Kris Bryant - $8,900,000
SS Addison Russell - $2,300,000
OF Leonys Martin - $4,900,000 (a certain non-tender; this estimated salary omitted from the total)
IF Tommy La Stella - $1,000,000
SP Kyle Hendricks - $4,900,000
RP Justin Wilson - $4,300,000
RP Justin Grimm - $2,400,000 (a possible non-tender; this estimated salary included in the total)
RP Hector Rondon - $6,200,000 (a possible non-tender; this estimated salary included in the total)
Auto-renewal players:
OF Kyle Schwarber - $850,000
OF Albert Almora - $850,000
OF/2B Ian Happ - $850,000
2B Javier Baez - $850,000
C Willson Contreras - $850,000
RP Mike Montgomery - $850,000
RP Carl Edwards Jr. - $850,000
Subtotal - $117,150,000
Likely additions:
OF Replacement for Jon Jay
C Replacement for Alex Avila/Rene Rivera
SP Replacement for Jake Arrieta
SP Replacement for John Lackey
RP Replacement for Brian Duensing
RP Replacement for Wade Davis