Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75580 times)

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #210 on: November 06, 2017, 11:42:59 pm »
Lynn and Cobb will probably go for about the same money.  If you go strictly by career numbers and raw stuff, I don't think there's any question Lynn is the better pitcher.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #211 on: November 07, 2017, 07:23:12 am »
Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. You get the bonus of moving him from the AL to the NL, which will help his stats. Cobb also spent the second half, when he had better results, doing a right version of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he lost the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If he can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.

Cubs Insider did a piece about Chacin having a better slider than every pitcher in the game not named Scherzer. His pitch sequencing was sub optimal and with a change there he could be significantly better.

Throw in the possibility both Japanese pitchers are coming over and someone like Chatwood, who isn’t my favorite, there are plenty of starting options on the market that are better than poorly controlled fastball pitcher Lynn.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #212 on: November 07, 2017, 08:49:39 am »
Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb.  He has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #213 on: November 07, 2017, 10:42:16 am »
Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb.  He has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.

Legitimate, of course, but I prefer Lynn.  Better velocity, much better K-rate - and on the whole, better results.  I prefer SP who miss bats, given the choice.  In reality, both are probably #3-4 starters assuming their elbows don't blow up.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #214 on: November 07, 2017, 11:38:27 am »
Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. ....  Cobb also spent the second half, when he had better results, doing a right version of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he lost the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If he can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.


What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap".  FA pitching is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand means price goes up.  The same things you like about him might also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's. 


So I suspect there's going to be aggressive competition for him, and the highest bidder is going to need to pay higher/riskier $$/length than other teams think is reasonable.  Almost by definition, he's going to get more years and dollars than the rest of the market thinks is good value.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #215 on: November 07, 2017, 11:48:52 am »
I guess it depends on what you consider "cheap", but I don't see anyone arguing either Cobb or Lynn could be had for less than 4-50, 5-65, something like that.  Maybe compared to what someone like Arrieta or Darvish might bring, that might be considered a good value.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #216 on: November 07, 2017, 11:53:49 am »
I'll take Cobb for 4/50.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #217 on: November 07, 2017, 12:33:45 pm »
What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap".  FA pitching is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand means price goes up.  The same things you like about him might also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's. 

He's only thrown over 150 IP twice, so that is going to be held against him and make him cheaper.  It is a risk, but nobody is giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher like him to 4 years and he got 4/$48.  I think s 3-4 year deal is most likely for him.  If he had multiple years of 180+ IP he would get more than what Samardzija got.  So he's cheap because of risks, but he has some upside too.

Cobb has a career ERA-/FIP- of 89/92.  His best  year is 72/87.  Cobb made an decreasing his change up usage and going with his fastball/curve.  He finished the second half with a 20% K% and Aug was 25.4% and Sept/Oct was 23.1%.  This was after he made an adjustment in how he pitched and his GB% returned to his career normal.  His release point was off on his split change-up so there isn't anything saying he can't get his best pitch back.

Lynn on the other hand has a career 88/94 ERA-/FIP- so it is really close to Cobb, almost identical.  Last year though it was 81/113, which isn't reassuring.  Looking deeper into his numbers his K% fell from a career 22.3% to  19.7% last year.  His second half his K% dropped to 17% and his BB% increased to 11.3%.  Then the big problem is his pitch mix.  He throws a 4 seam fastball 39%, 2 seam fastball 42.4%, cutter 10.7%.  He throws a version of his fastball 92.1% of the time and his Curve and change up are below average pitches.  His fastball velocity has decreased and is likely to continue going down making his best pitch/frequently thrown less effective.  So in short Lynn is losing velocity and has no other pitches to help and is getting less effective.  I would stay far, far away from him.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #218 on: November 07, 2017, 01:15:59 pm »
I'll take Cobb for 4/50.

...nobody is giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher like him to 4 years and he got 4/$48.  I think s 3-4 year deal is most likely for him. ....

I'm with Play, I'd also be happy to sign him for 4/50.  For reasons that you have nicely articulated, blue.

I may be way off, and what do I know.  But I'm predicting that you guys are significantly underselling the market that he's going to get. 

I'm predicting he'll get a deal significantly better than 4/50.  Lots of teams want a pitcher, lots of teams have the capacity to spend 4/50 and well beyond, and lots of teams are interested and willing to take a chance.  I'm also hesitant to assume that former deals are a good predictor for what this winter's deals will go for. 

Think he's going well north of $50/4, and that the winning bidder will be a team that's just willing to take on more and probably longer risk than the losing bidders.  Obviously with options, a deal can conditionally go beyond 4 years even if it's not fully guaranteed. 

If you want to play it safe, don't dabble in FA.  But if you need a piece, you may need to over-risk and over-spend and over-length to get that piece.  May not be Hoyer and Theo.  But somebody is going to take a chance well north of 4/50, I think....
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #219 on: November 07, 2017, 01:20:59 pm »
I would like to see the Cubs sign both Cobb and Lynn, if they can do each for about 14 million per year.  That would finish the rotation, and should still leave them some money to shore up the bull pen.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #220 on: November 07, 2017, 01:34:31 pm »
Lynn is also one year off TJS, so to conclude he's "losing velocity" seems pretty silly to me.  Most guys regain velocity the 2nd year back after TJS.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #221 on: November 07, 2017, 01:38:31 pm »
If it's a tossup, I would always sign players away from our biggest threats.  St. Louis, Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers...  You fill a hole and guarantee one in the other team.  I'm sure that's what the Cards were thinking with Fowler, although I doubt we would have resigned him.  We did it to them with Lackey.  Sure that can backfire, but since the free agent system was created, it's what the top teams do to each other.  That's why I would pursue Rosenthal before the Cards sign him to a minor league deal.   Word here is that the Cards are in on Santana, JD Martinez, a trade for Stanton, and Arrieta and Davis.  They will go hard for Davis.  If nothing else, they want us to go higher to try to keep him.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #222 on: November 07, 2017, 01:55:23 pm »
Cardinals with JD Martinez could be pretty scary. 

I've wondered about the Cubs going after him.  Adding a really good, professional hitter in the middle of the lineup would really, really make a difference.  Over last four years his composite OPS has been well over .900, so it would be like adding another Rizzo-caliber bat to the lineup. 

I know Theo loves Schwarber, but if you were to add a Martinez, you could then free up Schwarber for trade.  Not sure quite what he'd bring you, but somebody who'd at least have a shot to become good. 

Think an extra really, really good bat who's an every-day threat makes the lineup more relentless and takes some pressure off the other guys.  And gives the lineup a better chance to be good even during weeks when Bryant or Rizzo, or both, are cold. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #223 on: November 07, 2017, 02:20:59 pm »
I love JD Martinez's bat, but the problem with him is that he's already almost unplayable in the outfield defensively.  He's also over 30 now, so there's not much chance that he's going to improve.  At some point during his next contract, he's almost definitely going to have to move to DH full time. 

I agree that another every day bat is a need for this team, though.  I'd prefer it to be more of an on-base guy for the top of the lineup rather than a slugger.  I really believe the "you go, we go" effect with Fowler was bigger part of their success in 2016 than anyone realized, and not having that in 2017 was a major reason the lineup was so much more inconsistent.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #224 on: November 07, 2017, 02:52:18 pm »
Phil Rogers is doing his best to get attention:

Phil Rogers‏ @philgrogers 
@Giants have interest in @Cubs' Jason Heyward, w/Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon to offer. Very complicated deal but not impossible.