Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75518 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #225 on: November 07, 2017, 02:55:52 pm »
Lynn is also one year off TJS, so to conclude he's "losing velocity" seems pretty silly to me.  Most guys regain velocity the 2nd year back after TJS.

That isn't true.  Velocity is one of the first things to return.  It either comes back or it doesn't.  Command and control can take awhile to return, but not velocity.
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guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #226 on: November 07, 2017, 02:58:48 pm »
Phil Rogers is doing his best to get attention:

Phil Rogers‏ @philgrogers 
@Giants have interest in @Cubs' Jason Heyward, w/Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon to offer. Very complicated deal but not impossible.


Tear their **** arm off and run Theo.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #227 on: November 07, 2017, 03:26:54 pm »
Why would the Giants do That? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #228 on: November 07, 2017, 03:33:12 pm »
I love JD Martinez's bat, but the problem with him is that he's already almost unplayable in the outfield defensively.  He's also over 30 now, so there's not much chance that he's going to improve.  At some point during his next contract, he's almost definitely going to have to move to DH full time. 

I agree that another every day bat is a need for this team, though.  I'd prefer it to be more of an on-base guy for the top of the lineup rather than a slugger.  I really believe the "you go, we go" effect with Fowler was bigger part of their success in 2016 than anyone realized, and not having that in 2017 was a major reason the lineup was so much more inconsistent.

Yeah, good points.  Is there a FA leadoff guy available?  If so, I haven't been thinking of him. 

Martinez is a good bet to be as good or better an OBP guy than Fowler, it's not like you're giving up any OBP with a bat like that. 

I'm fine to defer to you guys and Theo on the defense, didn't realize it was that bad.  Schwarber's isn't exactly good either; so if you were to replace a DH in left with another DH, would it really be that big of a defensive decline?  Heh heh, if he's really a mile worse than schwarber defensively, that is kind of scary! 

Still, I admit that part of me thinks that hitting, hitting, and hitting every day is just such a team-changer.  You replace a .211-BA Schwarber with a .300-hitting Martinez, every day, and without needing to platoon, and that really makes it easier to sustain innings and grind a pitcher.  I know for Theo's Red Sox champs, Manny Ramirez wasn't an asset in left defensively, but an elite bat in the lineup changes a lot.  And most games there aren't many balls hit to left anyway, most of which are easy plays or sure hits regardless, without necessarily discriminating much between an awful left fielder versus a merely bad one. 

I know Cubs have pitching problems.  But I'm a huge believer that a consistent, high-scoring offense can cover up a multitude of sins.  And I think it actually can make pitchers better.  Pitching with a lead, or with the expectation that team will come back and score runs even if you give up a solo-HR, would seem to have a freeing influence, and allow guys to throw more strikes rather than needing to nibble so much.  Which seemed to be very much the Lester/Q/Montgomery/Arrieta approach as starters, and the Bosio/Contreras approach with the bullpen guys as well. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #229 on: November 07, 2017, 03:35:50 pm »
How reliable is Dan Bernstein?  Does he know anything?  Here is his tweet in response to the Rogers tweet:

Dan Bernstein‏ @dan_bernstein 
This is true.  I have heard similarly.


It really makes no sense for the Giants.  As much as some people here don't like him, Samardzija is still a pretty good pitcher.  If they ate a little of his contract, they could get pretty good prospects back.  And I'm not high on Melancon going forward, but at least he's under contract for only 3 more years.  And with a good 2018, you might get lucky and have him opt out of the last two years of his deal.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #230 on: November 07, 2017, 03:52:48 pm »
Yeah, good points.  Is there a FA leadoff guy available?  If so, I haven't been thinking of him.   

I think the closest thing to a leadoff guy on the market is Lorenzo Cain.  He wouldn't be bad--he hit .300/.363/.440 in 2017--but I'm not sure he's going to be worth what he's going to get paid in his 32-35 year old seasons.  Still, he wouldn't be the worst fit.

I'm going to keep beating the Yelich drum until the roster is settled.  He's been a consistent 4.5 fWAR guy over the past 4 years--he's more of an impact guy than people realize.  The Marlins are publicly stating they're not going to trade him...but I think that's a negotiating ploy.  If they're dealing Stanton, it's hard to believe they'd hold anyone on the team back if they got players that they wanted.

I know Cubs have pitching problems.  But I'm a huge believer that a consistent, high-scoring offense can cover up a multitude of sins.  And I think it actually can make pitchers better.  Pitching with a lead, or with the expectation that team will come back and score runs even if you give up a solo-HR, would seem to have a freeing influence, and allow guys to throw more strikes rather than needing to nibble so much.  Which seemed to be very much the Lester/Q/Montgomery/Arrieta approach as starters, and the Bosio/Contreras approach with the bullpen guys as well. 

I agree with this.  Plus, I'm not convinced the Cubs' pitching problems are as bad as they're being made out to be.  I think people are judging the loss of Arrieta, Lackey, and Davis in terms of their reputations, not their actual performance.  Those three guys combined for a total of 4 fWAR this year--upgrading over that is not hard.  They're going to make up more than half of that WAR just by having Quintana on the roster all year.  Add Cobb, a 5th starter who can eat 150+ innings with a 4.00ish ERA, and two of the second tier relievers (Reed, Shaw, McGee, Morrow, Minor, Swarzak, or Nicasio), and the 2018 pitching staff is likely significantly better than the 2017 version.

DelMarFan

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #231 on: November 07, 2017, 03:53:03 pm »
Does Heyward have a no-trade?  Zobrist and at least one more do, as I recall.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #232 on: November 07, 2017, 03:56:19 pm »
Yeah, Heyward has a no trade. 

So does Melancon.  So does Samardzija, though his is limited to 22 teams (and the Cubs weren't one of the restricted teams at midseason).

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #233 on: November 07, 2017, 04:07:56 pm »
Given what you know about them so far, would you offer any of the non-Bryant young Cubs the Anthony Rizzo contract this offseason?  How about if you had to bump the 2020-and-beyond values by $2-3 million per?

18:$0.75M, 19:$1.25M, 20:$5M, 21:$5M, 22:$7M, 23:$7M, 24:$11M, 25:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout), 26:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout)

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #234 on: November 07, 2017, 04:14:40 pm »
I would offer that contract to Russell, Baez and Contreras.  I would seriously consider offering it to Happ, and I wouldn't totally rule it out for Schwarber, depending upon the views of the scouting department and medical doctors.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #235 on: November 07, 2017, 04:14:46 pm »
The Giants have serious OF problems, and Heyward would be a real asset for them defensively.  Samardzija would be a nice fit for the Cubs.  Not sure how to make a trade work, though, even forgetting about the no trade clause.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #236 on: November 07, 2017, 04:29:14 pm »
How about if you had to take Cueto instead of Samardzija?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #237 on: November 07, 2017, 05:11:54 pm »
Samardzija over Cueto.
 
The Cubs pay money and tell Heyward he's a great guy and it didn't work out.  If he stays with the Cubs he'll be Zobrist and Almora's back up.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #238 on: November 07, 2017, 05:29:31 pm »
If he stays with the Cubs he'll be Zobrist and Almora's back up.

Similarly, Sam Dyson was really effective for the Giants last year outside of his last two games in September.  If the Giants told Melancon he had to win the closer's job back, he might be more willing to move on.

Chris27

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #239 on: November 07, 2017, 05:35:33 pm »
Think that's a pretty fair trade considering the loss of Heyward's defense would be pretty stark depending on his replacement. Only real problem with Samardzija--and it's not a small one--is he allows a lot of home runs despite his home games in AT&T park.

Heyward's owed 12M more over the three years Samardzija has left, but the Cubs would be out from under the last 65M of Heyward's deal.