Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75566 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #315 on: November 12, 2017, 12:23:30 pm »
I just would like to point out there were  54 2-3 fWAR pitchers in the majors last year. They aren’t easy to come by.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #316 on: November 12, 2017, 06:47:03 pm »
Good discussion.  I'm pretty comfortable letting Theo and those guys try to come to a decision.  Too complex for me.
1.  Conservative approach might be OK for competing for and perhaps winning the division. 
2.  To win the World Series, they might need to convert on a higher-ceiling guy?  Or maybe not, maybe Lester-Quintana-Hendricks-Cobb would be a plausible WS-rotation, if you had really good hitting and pen...
3. A #5 guy won't be high-ceiling without either a high price or high risk or both; only affordable-and-limited-length if some serious wildness and injury risk. 

I'd love to see Cubs sign Chatwood as #5.  They wouldn't unless they had reason to believe he had a solid chance to be good outside of Coors, and thought he had a reasonable chance to throw enough strikes.

I'd also enjoy adding two strike-throwers.  Hopefully the offense is consistent and relentless, and the defense plays at a high level so that guys don't need to be afraid to throw strikes, even if some hard contact results sometimes.
Nibble less than bullpen and Lester and Quintana did this year. 

I guess my feeling is to go for a Cobb-like #4, who mostly throws strikes; and then take a riskier shot on #5.  Like Chatwood.  If he flops or gets hurt, it's not the end of the world and you can improvise.  But if he did emerge, and improve his command, and stay healthy, maybe you've got a steal. 

To some degree, if you're going to win the World Series, some things need to break your way.  A risky guy works out; a guy doesn't get injured.  Maybe somebody outperforms their contract. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #317 on: November 12, 2017, 07:03:36 pm »
I would generally be getting a higher floor guy #4 as that is someone who will be in the playoff rotation. I generally consider Cobb and Chacin to have higher floors than Chatwood. Going for a riskier #5 I think is a great idea.

The Cubs have been pretty excellent at picking up lower tier starters recently. The only flops I can remember are Scott Baker and Anderson and those were more injury issues.

The stat cast guy I linked above about Chatwood mentions Tyson Ross and Anibel Sanchez as potential bounce back guys as well. I’d generally be more interested in the then as minor league deal guys or 6th starter/bullpen options.

 

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #318 on: November 12, 2017, 07:35:05 pm »
mlbtraderumors.com predicted a $20/3 contract for Chatwood.

The chances of Chatwood signing for that little is zero.  Not 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.  Zero.

He'll get closer to $50 than $20.  I want to say closer to $100 than $20, but I'm not quite that brave.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #319 on: November 12, 2017, 08:17:51 pm »
Sure wish there was a way to save posts involving absolute certainty like this or predictions for later quick reference.

You know, like if someone were to confidently and repeatedly proclaim that a presidential candidate were toast.... stuff like that.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #320 on: November 12, 2017, 08:23:45 pm »
So, a $1 get at those odds would get what?  I may be interested.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #321 on: November 12, 2017, 08:49:13 pm »
Sure wish there was a way to save posts involving absolute certainty like this or predictions for later quick reference.

You know, like if someone were to confidently and repeatedly proclaim that a presidential candidate were toast.... stuff like that.

You mean like the "Predictions" topic?
Funny Funny x 1 View List

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #322 on: November 12, 2017, 08:52:33 pm »
Given his age, I wonder if Chatwood would consider signing a 1 year deal with somebody to prove he can be good outside of Colorado, then cash in big-time if he does.  Given the glut of SP in next year's class maybe a 2-year is more likely.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #323 on: November 12, 2017, 10:22:14 pm »
Yeah, if a guy is confident, taking a short deal and killing it later makes some sense. 

I suppose from the player's side, a Heyward type contract makes better sense:  guaranteed length if you stink, and an opt-out if you kill it. 

Will be interesting if the Cubs end up making some creative contracts. 

I also wonder how quickly they'll move? 

I suppose calibrating the market for Happ may be step one.  If they get somebody they like as 5th starter for him, rather than getting both via FA, that might influence how much $$ they have for the other spot. 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #324 on: November 12, 2017, 10:34:47 pm »
If Chatwood could get a Heyward type deal, I'm sure he'd take it in a flash.  But he won't - which is why a 1 or 2 year might make sense for him.

As for Happ, if you guy you're trading him for is someone you view as a 5th starter, that's a hard pass from me.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #325 on: November 12, 2017, 10:55:46 pm »
Sorry, should have said "other guy" instead of #5.  We've got three starters, and we know we're going to sign at least one FA, so that makes four.  It's whether the other guy also comes via FA vs in trade for Happ that's uncertain. 

Don't think Happ is going to net a guy who's immediately going to slot ahead of Quintana in quality.  But how the Happ guy versus the FA slot on the initial pecking order, and then how they end up slotting in reality, who knows. 

I wouldn't object to trading Happ for a potentially good guy regardless of where he slots on the initial rotation ladder.  For example, if you signed Cobb and traded Happ for a cost-controlled guy, I double Happ-guy would initially slot ahead of Quintana or Cobb.  But they all get 30 starts, so if your 5th guy is excellent, that's a lot of wins. 

And status changes.  So an unproven talent may start #5, but finished #1 if he develops well.  Hendricks was viewed as #5/#6 entering 2016. 

Whatever, I'm just saying that they might trade Happ for one of the starters rather than necessarily using FA for both. 

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #326 on: November 12, 2017, 10:59:24 pm »
You mean like the "Predictions" topic?

Sure.... if you want it used for predictions other than team record.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #327 on: November 12, 2017, 11:26:37 pm »
Happ is worth far more than a fifth starter. I’m really struggling to see which pitcher is going to be available in the starting rotation or relief that the Cubs could trade for and would be worth a young MLB hitter.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #328 on: November 12, 2017, 11:43:57 pm »
The problem is finding the right matchup. I wouldn’t trade Happ for a 5th starter. There ar plenty of young SP who are controllable who I’d trade Happ for in a heartbeat that Happ would never be enough to get. As ever, the problem is finding the right guy who’s actually available. If I were betting on it, I’d guess none of the young core is traded this offseason.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #329 on: November 13, 2017, 06:45:30 am »
AA getting hired by the Braves might open some options, but Happ isn’t really a fit with their needs and none of their major league starting pitchers are worth Happ alone.

Teheran has a nice contract, but his pitching isn’t great. Newcombe has a severe walk problem and Gohara has some make up issues. If they could get some minor league pitching prospects to go with Gohara or NewcombeI guess I could see something, but that is a risky trade.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 06:50:37 am by CUBluejays »