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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75804 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #330 on: November 13, 2017, 09:01:42 am »
Yeah, if there isn't a fair-value young pitcher available for Happ, then of course you don't trade him, and just go with free-agent pitching. 

It's not like Happ isn't a potentially valuable guy for the Cubs, particularly if he were to improve some.  Zobrist is very near the end; Schwarber may get much better but may also just be a platoon .211 hitter; and Heyward's bat could make a lot of RF starts available to anybody who can hit.  Also rare that both Baez and Russell are healthy and hitting well at the same time. 

Tangent:  Hard to find a fit, and teams rarely will trade talented pitching prospects, but could consider Happ for a minor leaguer. 

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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #331 on: November 13, 2017, 09:09:05 am »
Quote from: craig on November 13, 2017, 09:01:42 am
Tangent:  Hard to find a fit, and teams rarely will trade talented pitching prospects, but could consider Happ for a minor leaguer.

Brent Honeywell
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #332 on: November 13, 2017, 09:21:52 am »
Fangraphs top 50 free agents, with Dave Cameron's and crowdsourced contract estimates:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #333 on: November 13, 2017, 09:31:10 am »
Quote from: CUBluejays on November 13, 2017, 06:45:30 am
AA getting hired by the Braves might open some options

Some writers have suggested it could be beneficial for the Braves to deal Inciarte now for someone with more power since they have Acuna ready to take over for him.  If AA bought that logic, could an Inciarte/Teheran package be a fit for the Cubs?  I guess this depends on how you feel about Almora's future at this point.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #334 on: November 13, 2017, 10:07:47 am »
I wouldn't complain about the trade, but I'm not sure Inciarte is a big enough upgrade to justify the cost.  Teheran isn't my cup of tea as a pitcher, and Foltynewicz would give you more control as a 4/5 guy. 

I think the best trade partners for the Cubs are the Braves and A's at this point.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #335 on: November 13, 2017, 10:46:45 am »
I happen to like Newcombe a lot - I think he has the stuff to be a #2 if he figures it out.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #336 on: November 13, 2017, 12:56:38 pm »
USA today has the Cubs going $2 million over the luxury tax, which will affect the QO to Davis and Arrieta and penalties for signing a QO FA.  It is a little weird because Cot's, before midseason trades had the $17 million below the threshold.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #337 on: November 13, 2017, 01:06:43 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on November 13, 2017, 12:56:38 pm
USA today has the Cubs going $2 million over the luxury tax, which will affect the QO to Davis and Arrieta and penalties for signing a QO FA.  It is a little weird because Cot's, before midseason trades had the $17 million below the threshold.

Too bad.  Are you confident USAToday has it right? 

I'm not doubting, and Theo who wasn't going to stop at Eloy probably wouldn't give pause to lux tax either, in order to get into the playoffs.  But I'd think Cubs were pretty lux-tax aware. 
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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #338 on: November 13, 2017, 01:50:52 pm »
While none of us are sure how the luxury tax is calculated, I've always read that it's based on the AAV of contract plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits.

The Cubs used 47 players in 2017.  I just added up what I presume the luxury tax figure is for each and added $13 million.  The result was a shade less than $195 million.  I did not take into account that some costs were paid by other teams (part of Quintana, part of J. Wilson, etc.).

That exercise would suggest that the Cubs won't owe the luxury tax.

Who knows?
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #339 on: November 13, 2017, 01:54:19 pm »
Quote from: JeffH on November 13, 2017, 01:50:52 pm
While none of us are sure how the luxury tax is calculated, I've always read that it's based on the AAV of contract plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits.

The Cubs used 47 players in 2017.  I just added up what I presume the luxury tax figure is for each and added $13 million.  The result was a shade less than $195 million.  I did not take into account that some costs were paid by other teams (part of Quintana, part of J. Wilson, etc.).

That exercise would suggest that the Cubs won't owe the luxury tax.

Who knows?

Thanks, Jeff. 

Others are smarter, but I tend to forget about the "plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits".
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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #340 on: November 13, 2017, 03:24:39 pm »
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #341 on: November 13, 2017, 03:42:08 pm »
Man, that's a shame.  Heh heh, Brett Anderson puts them over the lux tax!  Oops! 
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #342 on: November 13, 2017, 03:52:55 pm »
Or Martin.  I wonder if the form they got includes the $13 million so USA is adding it twice.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #343 on: November 13, 2017, 05:33:09 pm »
Rogers tweeting Cubs weren’t over. 
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #344 on: November 13, 2017, 05:41:59 pm »
 Patrick Mooney‏Verified account @MooneyNBCS

Source: #Cubs are not projected to pay the luxury tax this year after staying under the $195 million threshold.
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