http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/what-not-paying-luxury-tax-means-cubs-and-alex-cobbMooney article, not well written, seems to say that Cubs will receive 3rd-round picks for Arrieta and Davis. That's not correct, right? They are second round picks, so long as they're really under the lux tax? Or are they really 3rd round picks?
2nd, in the remotely unlikely even that Cobb was to sign for under $50, would that then mean that you wouldn't NOT give up 2nd pick as compensation?
3rd, I wonder how that "$50" works, with incentives and stuff. I assume that would be $50 in guaranteed? Don't imagine there is any way he's going to sign below $50 guaranteed anyway. But just curious whether there might be a creative way to construct a contract, where it wasn't all guaranteed but perhaps there were really easy-to-reach triggers. For example, suppose only $45/4 guaranteed; but then year 5 is non-guaranteed $17, with a $4 mutual option (like Fowler had, I think, where he gets it whether Cubs opt out or he ops out), and with the Cubs losing their opt-out if he gets 30 innings between years 4 and 5. So, at worst he gets $49/4. With a super-teensy trigger for year 5 he almost surely gets $62/5. (Maybe even something like that isn't competitive, beats me.... Just trying to understand what the constraints are on squeaking under the $50 limit.)