Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75581 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #615 on: December 07, 2017, 03:22:23 pm »
Thanks, Play, that's a really interesting article. 
 
1.  The curveball spin rate is always mentioned.  But he says he didn't use it much (10%) because he didn't have a feel for it.  *IF* he can develop a feel for it, and control it, so that he can be effectively throwing 25% curve instead of 10%, could be huge.  And could result in massive jump in K-rate. 
2.  I have no scouting reason to guess whether that's likely.  Edwards and Grimm and Strop and Rondon all have killer breaking balls, too.  But without command, and if hitters just spit on them, how often can you throw them? 
3.  The jump in fastball velocity is quite interesting.
4.  Seems to me that if velocity is up, thanks to mechanical adjustment; and IF he were to more frequently and better utilize the curve, there's a lot of possibilities. 

5.  I thought the bit about 1st time, 2nd time, and 3rd time through order was also really interesting.  A problem, of course, is that if you're walking everybody, you may not get through the lineup that quickly.  If the plan is to throw more wild curveballs, so that you naturally walk more guys, you'll be getting in the 3rd-time-through-lineup in the fifth innning. 
6.  This is where the Cubs success in bullpen-improvement is so crucial. If you've got a deep, good bullpen, then a game plan of 5-innings-then-pen can really work.  But if you're terrified of your crummy wild bullpen, and that means you're going to be using a Grimm wildman all the time, it's a lose-lose deal.  Also feel like Maddon perhaps modifying his bullpen approach may be critical.  May need to let guys pitch full innings, and let RH-reliever face LH hitters, for the 8-month-season logic even if it means putting some games at risk regular-season.     

7.  It's interesting that we repeatedly see "ERA" in these discussions, as if it was 1975.  As blue notes, yes Catwood's road ERA was very good; but is that real and sustainable?  There may be some fluke there, and the flat K/BB rate suggests he probably really shouldn't be expected to be that good on the road.  (Although still better than Lackey, no argument).

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #616 on: December 07, 2017, 03:26:01 pm »
I like the signing.  Think it's fun.  And as deeg notes, think it's a great match with our infield defense. 
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #617 on: December 07, 2017, 03:38:49 pm »
Yes, but br and CBJ don't like it, so it must stink.

Dihard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #618 on: December 07, 2017, 03:51:38 pm »







Basic description of 2017 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball is a real worm killer...  His curve is a real worm killer... His change is a real worm killer...


Look out, worms of Wrigley.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #619 on: December 07, 2017, 03:59:43 pm »
Yes, but br and CBJ don't like it, so it must stink.

Glad you're catching on and recognize who knows what they're talking about.[purple]

Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation.  Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been.  I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again). 

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #620 on: December 07, 2017, 04:10:58 pm »
Glad you're catching on and recognize who knows what they're talking about.[purple]

Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation.  Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been.  I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again). 
Just yanking chains of friends.   ;D

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #621 on: December 07, 2017, 04:16:33 pm »
Just yanking chains of friends.   ;D

Friends?  You have no friends.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 04:21:11 pm by davep »

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #622 on: December 07, 2017, 04:20:34 pm »
I think that Epstein's comment about starting Montgomery in the pen was based upon the assumption that they will sign another starter, and not need him in the pen.  But if for whatever reason that they do not sign one (or lose one in spring training) I believe that Epstein would have no problems with Montgomery as the fifth starter.  Personally, if they can't sign Cobb or someone similar, I would prefer to see them begin with 6 starters, with Montgomery and Butler sharing the fifth spot.  It would give us a chance to find out if either one can do the job.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #623 on: December 07, 2017, 04:26:02 pm »
Count me as pro-Chatwood, for sure.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #624 on: December 07, 2017, 04:34:42 pm »
I think that Epstein's comment about starting Montgomery in the pen was based upon the assumption that they will sign another starter, and not need him in the pen.  But if for whatever reason that they do not sign one (or lose one in spring training) I believe that Epstein would have no problems with Montgomery as the fifth starter.  Personally, if they can't sign Cobb or someone similar, I would prefer to see them begin with 6 starters, with Montgomery and Butler sharing the fifth spot.  It would give us a chance to find out if either one can do the job.
I'd like to see them with 6 starters too, the last two being Darvish and Ohtani.
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Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #625 on: December 07, 2017, 05:05:20 pm »
Two things...

1) Colorado’s infield defense is terrible? Really? In what bizarro world?

2) Chatwood reminds me quite a bit of Matt Clement. I was a big Clement fan.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #626 on: December 07, 2017, 05:11:13 pm »
Two things...

1) Colorado’s infield defense is terrible? Really? In what bizarro world?

Yes.  Frightful.  Except 3B.  Oh, and 2B.  And Shortstop.  Yeah, except for those 3 positions, their infield sucks.

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #627 on: December 07, 2017, 05:13:17 pm »
Haven’t gotten a great deal from my source but was told that nothing will happen until Ohtani situation has been determined. My guess is that the signing of Chatwood is indicative of the Cubs being told they aren’t getting Ohtani. This is assuming that he was straight forward with me.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #628 on: December 07, 2017, 05:18:24 pm »
Quote
Bleacher Nation‏ @BleacherNation

Chatwood's 58.1% groundball rate was 5th best in baseball in 2017.

Extremely relatedly? The Rockies had only the 13th best defensive efficiency against grounders in 2017 (per BP).

The Cubs? They had the best.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #629 on: December 07, 2017, 05:27:40 pm »
...Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation.  Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been.  I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again). 

Not quite sure I'm tracking, br.  You're saying they just need to not suck at the back; but then you're not satisfied with Chatwood?   Isn't that exactly what he is, an anti-awful #5 starter, only with a chance to perhaps be better than just anti-awful? 

At least, that's how I'm envisioning this, that's he's #5, but that they're going to add somebody perhaps more established as the #4, from the Cobb/Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn group.  (Or Ohtani, of course, in the dream world.) 
I'd think Hendricks/Quintana/Lester/Cobb/Chatwood could be a pretty competitive regular-season rotation, with good infield defense, if the bullpen and offense were good.