Thanks, Play, that's a really interesting article.
1. The curveball spin rate is always mentioned. But he says he didn't use it much (10%) because he didn't have a feel for it. *IF* he can develop a feel for it, and control it, so that he can be effectively throwing 25% curve instead of 10%, could be huge. And could result in massive jump in K-rate.
2. I have no scouting reason to guess whether that's likely. Edwards and Grimm and Strop and Rondon all have killer breaking balls, too. But without command, and if hitters just spit on them, how often can you throw them?
3. The jump in fastball velocity is quite interesting.
4. Seems to me that if velocity is up, thanks to mechanical adjustment; and IF he were to more frequently and better utilize the curve, there's a lot of possibilities.
5. I thought the bit about 1st time, 2nd time, and 3rd time through order was also really interesting. A problem, of course, is that if you're walking everybody, you may not get through the lineup that quickly. If the plan is to throw more wild curveballs, so that you naturally walk more guys, you'll be getting in the 3rd-time-through-lineup in the fifth innning.
6. This is where the Cubs success in bullpen-improvement is so crucial. If you've got a deep, good bullpen, then a game plan of 5-innings-then-pen can really work. But if you're terrified of your crummy wild bullpen, and that means you're going to be using a Grimm wildman all the time, it's a lose-lose deal. Also feel like Maddon perhaps modifying his bullpen approach may be critical. May need to let guys pitch full innings, and let RH-reliever face LH hitters, for the 8-month-season logic even if it means putting some games at risk regular-season.
7. It's interesting that we repeatedly see "ERA" in these discussions, as if it was 1975. As blue notes, yes Catwood's road ERA was very good; but is that real and sustainable? There may be some fluke there, and the flat K/BB rate suggests he probably really shouldn't be expected to be that good on the road. (Although still better than Lackey, no argument).