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Amazing how much this hurts, even though I always knew we were an extreme longshot.  Otani is such a freak at this cost it's almost impossible to gauge his surplus value.

I really don't know where the Cubs go after this.  Cobb makes little sense to me after signing Chatwood, and the other FA options apart from Darvish are pretty unappealing.  I know next winter is a much better FA class to say the least, but can you really afford to throw away a year of your window when windows close so fast modern baseball?

Heh heh, that's kind of how I felt, too.  Never thought we had much chance, but then some of the morning buzz was getting hopes up; and with him the hopes for years of greatness were just limitless.   O well, back to reality, as is the usual way in life! 

I don't see the "Cobb makes little sense" bit, though.  Why not, and what does Chatwood have to do with that?  With Chatwood in hand, Cobb to me actually seems like as good or better a fit than ever.  Certainly can budget-fit both.  Cobb's not too old, age fits.  Obviously Cobb's very limited velocity-wise, but there's potental to pitch significantly better future than he has past, if he could recover feel and touch on his weird ball.  If you got the good versions of both of those guys, you could have a very good, contender-ish rotation, and either could pitch their way into playoff rotation.  Cobb makes excellent sense, in my always-hopeful, always-optimistic view.   I don't think a rotation with Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, Cobb, and Chatwood would be necessarily too weak to have WS-aspirations, if things broke right.  (Obviously you'd need to have some hitters hit....)   

I'd be all for a Cobb signing.

Cobb was tied for 36 in fWAR with Jake Arrieta. If that is your definition of a 4/5th starter....

Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):

“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”

I believe we received the same reports about Tanaka after the interview with him.

I think that Cobb is the very best we can hope for.  I doubt very seriously that the Cubs will seriously consider coming up with the money for Darvish or Arrieta. 

Possibly Lynn, if you think he is better than Cobb.

I think I would, too.  Sign a 5th starter with high risk but some upside, spend real money on real relievers and load up next winter then there's a glut in the SP market.

FWIW, Levine says the Cubs are pushing hard to sign Cobb before Monday.

Not that nuts for that move, not so much because Cobb isn't an OK pitcher but because that means $100 million+ dumped on two back-end rotation guys without doing anything to fix a badly broken bullpen losing its only reliable member, and five SP with multi-year commitments going into the best FA year for SP in baseball history.  You'd basically be adding two starters who, unless they exceed expectations, really aren't guys you'd look forward to starting in a postseason game.

Ha, I'd like a Cobb signing...I guess we're on opposite sides of all pitchers this offseason.  Ideally, he'd have a history of eating more innings. But when healthy (and he seemed to be fully back from TJ by the end of the year), he's been a consistent 2.5-3 win pitcher.  If he pitches 175ish innings again next year, he's exactly how I wanted the Cubs to fill out the back of the rotation.

Chatwood and Cobb is problematical for a number of reasons, another one of which is that both have below-average track records when it comes to staying healthy.  If you somehow got 30 starts from each of them, this looks like a rotation that could get you to the postseason pretty well.  But it's not an intimidating playoff rotation by any stretch - it just lacks the shutdown power guys that dominate in October and November.  Maybe Lester can be that guy again, maybe he can't.  I don't see that out of the others. 


The biggest issue is that the bullpen was a disaster in October, and it's going to require a massive overhaul that hasn't even begun yet.  Is there enough money left to sign all the guys necessary to rebuild it?