Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75544 times)

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #705 on: December 09, 2017, 09:53:04 pm »
Levine is also linking the Cubs to Morrow and Reed...

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #706 on: December 09, 2017, 10:10:36 pm »
Those would be two signings I would wholeheartedly support.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #707 on: December 09, 2017, 10:54:15 pm »
FWIW, Levine says the Cubs are pushing hard to sign Cobb before Monday.
Levine is also linking the Cubs to Morrow and Reed...

Interesting.  A team always is interested in a million guys, and gets only a few.  So, who knows.

Would be fun to haul in all three of those guys. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #708 on: December 09, 2017, 11:13:34 pm »
deeg, I don't see it the same re Cobb/Chatwood.
1.  Don't think that would preclude signing pretty interesting relievers, plural.  IIRC, Jeff had us down around $120, maybe less; so $12 Chatwood, $14-15 Cobb, $8-each for a couple of relievers, could still have some room.
2.  Also not sure that filling the rotation with $10/year guys would preclude going after a good playoff-starter next winter.  With another year on his tired, Lester might be cooked by then.  If everybody is healthy and Lester is still a desirable rotation guy, that's all great; moving Chatwood at $12 to relief seems no problem. 

I do agree that a rotation of Q, Lester, Hendricks, Cobb, and Chatwood, none of those guys look like they're going to be advantage-pitchers in the playoffs.  When facing Scherzer or Strasburg or Kershaw, are there any of the Cubs 5 (hypothetically including Cobb) where you'd feel our guy was better than theirs, or more talented?  We're going to pitching from behind, talent-wise, in the playoffs, that's a given.  But, what do you do?  It's not like there are any Strasburg-like aces sitting out there being offered in exchange for Almora or Happ or Zobrist. 

I also agree that bullpen must improve.  I think that might be more true than ever in event of Chatwood+Cobb being added as 5+4 starters.  Neither have history of injury-durable; neither have history of innings-eaters.  Chatwood's control and 1st-2nd-3rd-time-through-order combined with Cobb having only finally passed 150 innings, that suggests to me that both guys shouldn't be asked for 7 innings very often, and you should build your bullpen well enough so that if Chatwood normally gives you 5 good innings and Cobb 6, you can pick up the other 4 and 3 innings routinely by your pen.  That may be problematic if doing so means you're alway turning to Grimm or Maples or Koji or somebody of the Felix Pena/Florio caliber.  Pen obviously needs good guys plural. 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #709 on: December 09, 2017, 11:53:52 pm »
Maybe you don't do anything this year, but you sure as hell have to get yourself one of those "advantage" starters next winter, when so many of them are available.  And at some point you probably have to trade Schwarber or Russell or Baez for another one, because if you're going to win another World Series you probably need two of them in your rotation.

Incidentally, there was an ace pitcher being offered last season for that type of talent in exchange - and the Astros traded for him.  It seemed to work out pretty well for them.
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ticohans

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #710 on: December 10, 2017, 02:33:34 am »
I’m not seeing a glut of “advantage-starters” in FA next year. Kershaw and... ? Gio Gonzalez? That’s the only SP I’m seeing who is clearly superior to the Chatwood/Cobb level of SP this year, to say nothing of Arrieta and Darvish. What am I missing? If anything, next year’s FA SP class looks light. Way more pitching on the FA market this year. Next year it’s bats and RP.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2017, 02:41:41 am by ticohans »

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #711 on: December 10, 2017, 02:53:53 am »
I dont see how anyone here could complain with Chatwood and hopefully Cobb unless they want us to sign Darvish.

I do agree that we need a few upper tier relievers though.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #712 on: December 10, 2017, 07:16:53 am »
.......have to get yourself one of those "advantage" starters next winter, when so many of them are available.  And at some point you probably have to trade Schwarber or Russell or Baez for another one.....

Nobody's trading a playoff-advantage ace starter for Schwarber, Russell, or Baez.  Not great enough hitters for that.   

method

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #713 on: December 10, 2017, 07:58:57 am »
I’m not seeing a glut of “advantage-starters” in FA next year. Kershaw and... ? Gio Gonzalez? That’s the only SP I’m seeing who is clearly superior to the Chatwood/Cobb level of SP this year, to say nothing of Arrieta and Darvish. What am I missing? If anything, next year’s FA SP class looks light. Way more pitching on the FA market this year. Next year it’s bats and RP.

Full list

Madison Bumgarner (29)  — $12MM club option
Carlos Carrasco (32) — $9MM club option with a $663K buyout
Patrick Corbin (29)
Nathan Eovaldi (29)
Doug Fister (35) — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (33)
Cole Hamels (35) — $20MM club/vesting option with a $6MM buyout
Jason Hammel (36) — $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
J.A. Happ (36)
Matt Harvey (30)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35)
Scott Kazmir (35)
Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)
Brandon McCarthy (35)
Matt Moore (30)  — $10MM club option with a $750K buyout
Charlie Morton (35)
Wily Peralta (30) — $3MM club option with a $25K buyout
Martin Perez (28) — $7.5MM club option with a $750K buyout
Drew Pomeranz (30)
David Price (33) — can opt out of remaining four years and $127MM
Garrett Richards (31)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)
Chris Sale (30) — $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ervin Santana (36) — $14MM club/vesting option
James Shields (37) — $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Tomlin (34)
Edinson Volquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (37)
Travis Wood (32) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #714 on: December 10, 2017, 08:10:43 am »
Maybe it's time to consider offering a 6-year deal to Arrieta.  A rotation of Arrieta, Q, Hendricks, Lester, and Chatwood would be excellent.  I'd rather take this aggressive approach than to sign another bottom of the rotation guy all things considered.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #715 on: December 10, 2017, 08:17:34 am »
If Cobb is a back end starter, then 2017 Arrieta was a back end starter too.  Arrieta struck out a few more, but Cobb walked a few less.  Everything else was almost identical:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4153,6562
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #716 on: December 10, 2017, 08:19:14 am »
So Price is the only guy that might be added to the list, but with his elbow issues that is unlikely.

I think people are underrating Hendricks, Lester and Quintana. With more rest I think Hendricks will be more consistent and Lester will bounce back. Quintana is just underrated on this board for whatever reason. Even in 2016 I never felt great with any of the pitchers going up against Kershaw, Scherzer etc...

Bullpen needs work. I’d really like to see 3 guys added this year. Marrow, McGee and 1 other righty.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #717 on: December 10, 2017, 09:05:48 am »
br, I don't see it that way.  Arrieta had a higher K rate (23.1% vs. 17.3%), a lower hard contact rate (29.4% vs. 36.9%), and a higher soft contact rate (20% vs. 14.9%).  It is true that Cobb had a lower BB rate (5.9% vs. 7.8%). but to my eye the numbers indicate that Jake was indeed the better starter.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #718 on: December 10, 2017, 09:38:34 am »
br, I don't see it that way.  Arrieta had a higher K rate (23.1% vs. 17.3%), a lower hard contact rate (29.4% vs. 36.9%), and a higher soft contact rate (20% vs. 14.9%).  It is true that Cobb had a lower BB rate (5.9% vs. 7.8%). but to my eye the numbers indicate that Jake was indeed the better starter.

Couple problems with direct comparisons. Cobb pitches in the AL with a DH, so the K% is going to be less because he doesn’t get to face pitchers. Cobb also had trouble with the feel for his best pitch coming off TJS, but there isn’t any reason he can’t get this pitch back. Just moving to the NL will boost his K%. Plus the fact that when Cobb changed his approach to fastball/curve his K% was similar to Arrieta’s.

The Rays also gave up a lot of hard contact last year.  Archer’s hard contact percentage has higher than Cobb’s last year at 39.4%. This was a 7% jump from from his career norms. Some have speculated that there has an issue with the Rays stadium inflating hard contact % with StatCast.

I think Jake will be a better version of Jake next year, but I think Cobb will be better next year too so the production will still be similar and Cobb will be tens of millions of dollars cheaper.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #719 on: December 10, 2017, 10:26:07 am »
Cobb and Arrieta may have gotten their results in different ways.  But in the end, their ERAs were only marginally different, while their FIP and WAR were identical.  Like CBJ, I expect both to be a little better next year.  And I think both are mid rotation starters going forward.

Cobb's numbers you cited improved a lot in the second half, by the way, which is a very good sign coming off TJ.