Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75594 times)

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #765 on: December 11, 2017, 09:47:50 am »
Thanks, Jeff.  That is really helpful.  Very helpful.   

Questions: 
1.  On the bottom, you have $181,757,143 (sum of the lux tax fixures), plus also $197,000,000  and  $15,242,857 listed.  The latter two are cut-and-paste leftovers not meant to be there, correct?

2.  I wonder whether, instead of two relief spots to fill, whether they won't want to add at least 3 more?  (Whether that means bumping the budget, or splitting an allotment into two smaller ones...) 

3.  Is Grimm's contract such that if you cut him in camp, you don't have to actually pay the full $2.4, and how much you do pay depends on how early you cut him?  (I know reb has a good memory for those details, so I hope you either come back, reb, or else that somebody else remembers!)  Or are they really effectively committed to $2.4 for Grimm? 

4.  Does Dario Alvarez have options?  Maybe they're going to figure they're OK with leaving one bullpen open spot, with Grimm as $2.4 place-holder, but then with Maples, maybe a Rule 5, and whatever non-roster guys or Alvarez types they've got competing? 


5.  Maybe Hickey or Benedict think they see something fixable, so they want to at least give Grimm a camp shot?  Without assuming that he'll make it, particularly if camp injuries don't open up spot(s)? 

6.  Overall I'm just thinking that it might be good to pick up another one or two comeback guys on $2M-ish deals, or somebodies like Duensing last year.  To compete with Grimm for last spot. I don't want to assume Grimm on the staff, and then be an injury or two (starter or reliever) from having 3 pen guys comparable or worse than Grimm? 

7.  Or else just get a pretty solid/decent 13th guy at a contract that pays accordingly (≥$3.5), with Grimm outside the bubble barring injuries. 

8.  I also wonder if they might not want a failed rotation guy for relief, an option to Montgomery as long-man/swing-man insurance?  A fill-in starter, or if you wanted to do some 6-man rotation for a while; or a guy who wasn't that good in rotation but might emerge as quite effective when used in relief?  Not sure how bad a guy would need to be to settle for a role like that at a price that's cheap enough, though.  (For example, I kinda doubt a guy like Smyly would need to settle for a $7.5/2 relief/swing contract.)   
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 10:13:02 am by craig »

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6158
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #766 on: December 11, 2017, 09:51:30 am »
Craig, the $197 is the 2018 luxury tax threshold and the delta is how far we are from that.

Alvarez has options.  Butler and Grimm are the only bubble guys that don't.  Well, La Stella doesn't either, but I'm considering him a roster lock.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 09:56:39 am by JeffH »

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6158

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5086
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #768 on: December 11, 2017, 09:57:09 am »
That's a really encouraging snapshot of things, projecting $15M below lux tax even with sizeable signings for the last SP and RP spots. I mean, if the Cubs were so inclined, they could even go out and get someone like Darvish and still come in under the cap for this year.

And how 'bout those Rizzo and Q deals? Basically $6M and $4M respectively for lux tax purposes? Wow wow wow.

Lastly, are the benefits/burdens for sure a part of the taxable amount? Is that just a general estimate at $15M, or is that a standard charge assumed by all teams in lux tax calcs?
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 10:36:00 am by ticohans »

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6158
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #769 on: December 11, 2017, 09:57:11 am »
Craig, here's the best reference for who has options and who doesn't:

http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6158
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #770 on: December 11, 2017, 10:30:55 am »
Craig, the B&B are definitely part of the luxury tax calc.  Cot's uses a $13 million allowance.  I bumped it to $15.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #771 on: December 11, 2017, 10:47:49 am »
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #772 on: December 11, 2017, 10:50:07 am »
Craig, the $197 is the 2018 luxury tax threshold and the delta is how far we are from that.

Alvarez has options.  Butler and Grimm are the only bubble guys that don't.  Well, La Stella doesn't either, but I'm considering him a roster lock.

Ah, excellent, Jeff, your command of all of the details is fabulous. 
1.  So, Grimm is not guaranteed, and can easily be cut in camp at neglible extent. 
2.  Yeah, that's a pretty reasonable margin below lux tax.  You want to have some, so you can pick up a Verlander or Chapman in July.  But no risk of picking up $15M in remaining salary.
3.  Thanks for including the B&B, with the extra cushion.   

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #773 on: December 11, 2017, 10:58:14 am »
Good contract for Morrow.  Though of course swapping Morrow for Davis does nothing in itself to strengthen the pen - you need at least one more frontline reliever, preferably two.

Dave23

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12698
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #774 on: December 11, 2017, 11:05:31 am »
Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber?

JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #775 on: December 11, 2017, 11:13:47 am »
What was Butler's injury? 

I know he didn't miss bats, he was wild and inconsistent, and nobody missed him much when he got sent out.  But he did actually have the best rotation ERA on the staff at the time they sent him out. 

I kinda wonder whether he might not be an anti-awful candidate to be a relief guy, and maybe compete with Grimm for a last spot?  (With potential to get stretched out and make a few fill-in starts if needed again).  Obviously in relief tend to want K-guys, so that's not him. 

But I wonder if he might do OK?  Be a little faster; control a little better throwing just 2 pitches; control a little better throwing every other day instead of sitting for days between starts?  Maybe Hickey or Benedict will have some little tweak to improve his breaking ball just a bit?  Maybe even an unimproved breaking ball plays a little better when fastball is coming 95-97 instead of 91-93 and is being thrown with higher frequency?  Heh heh, not expecting, but sometimes when a season turns out great, some unexpectedly effective guys emerge. 

Just kinda thinking that **IF** the Cubs were to sign Cobb, it might be best to assume Chatwood and Cobb as 5-inning guys, and view anything beyond as frosting.  If Butler was to emerge as an anti-awful pitch-to-contact faster-fastball guy who could pick up the 6th, or perhaps get used as a 2-inning bridge, that might be advantageous, and protect the late-inning guys.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #776 on: December 11, 2017, 11:31:31 am »
Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber?

JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...

I wouldn't be high on a deal, but I think it's worth at least talking about if you're the Cubs.  JBJ will play next season at 28 years old, so he is what he is at this point--a great defensive outfielder with inconsistent (but league average or a little above) offense. If you think 2017 Schwarber is what he's going to be, then I think it's a pretty good trade for the Cubs.  But if you think Schwarber will be break out, I don't think you make the deal (if only because someone will overpay next offseason if he has a big offensive year).

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #777 on: December 11, 2017, 11:42:46 am »
Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber?   JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...

Not sure I'd be very excited.  Bradley seems almost "too Cub"; yet another high-K low-average hot-and-cold hitter.  Who's probably eaten alive by post-season-caliber pitchers. 

His splits aren't that sharp either.  So doesn't look like platoon with Almora would result in a monster combo, or anything.   

I think the Cubs offense is a worry, so I'd probably rather roll the dice on Schwarber and hope he can make enough adjustments/improvements to turn into a pretty valuable platoon bat.   

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #778 on: December 11, 2017, 12:19:48 pm »
I wouldn't make that deal, personally.  Bradley probably is a better hitter than he was last season, but Schwarber has a chance to be an elite offensive player.

Bennett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7414
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #779 on: December 11, 2017, 12:33:46 pm »
When I hear the name Bradley, I can't help but think of Milton.