Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75614 times)

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #795 on: December 11, 2017, 03:38:34 pm »
Given ....his near .900 OPS in the second half, I don't see them trading him ....

Tango's "Marcel the Monkey" projects to .806.  I expect something above Marcel but below 2nd-half .894.  I'm guessing maybe .830-type guy? 

Im guessing the amazing HR/contact rate he had 2nd half isn't sustainable and will drop.  He was more than double the HR/contact of any of Bryant, Rizzo, or Baez; higher than Stanton; almost Judge; and short of Bonds 73-HR season but much closer to that than to Bryant or Rizzo. 

HR/contact rate: 
2017 Baez:  7.1%
2017 Bryant:  6.8%
2017 Rizzo:  6.6%
2nd-half Schwarber:  14.9%

Stanton 2017:  13.6%
Judge:  15.6%. 
Historic juiced-ball-juiced-body 73-HR-season Bonds:  19.0% 

So, I think we should be a little cautious in assuming the .894 2nd-half is what we should expect as normal.  Without a 15% HR/contact rate, he'd need other aspects of his offense to go up, in order to stay near the .894 2nd-half number he posted. 

His 2nd-half K-rate jumped a lot, compared to first half, and his walk-rate dropped. 

So kind of looks like he just got more aggressive and sold out for the HR, and it paid off. 

Will be interesting if he tries, and is able, to make any adjustments to hit the ball more often.  Or if maybe he and management will figure it's best to just sell out on the HR, and that's just who he is and what he's going to be.   

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #796 on: December 11, 2017, 04:03:39 pm »
I would guess around .250/330/520/850 for Schwarber next season.

Two more relievers for sure, and yes - more money doesn't automatically mean more effectiveness, but the Cubs have tried the "cheap and hope" approach for the last few years, and apart from Duensing largely failed.  McGee and Reed would be a nice pair to add to Morrow.

Ron

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8430
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #797 on: December 11, 2017, 04:11:23 pm »

Will be interesting if he tries, and is able, to make any adjustments to hit the ball more often.  Or if maybe he and management will figure it's best to just sell out on the HR, and that's just who he is and what he's going to be.   

Theo has made it crystal clear that the Cubs want and expect Schwarber to go back to/become a more pure hitter who makes more consistent contact, one who does not "just sell out on the HR."  He's made this point several times since the end of the season and has said that Schwarber is in agreement.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #798 on: December 11, 2017, 04:14:12 pm »
They have to add at least one more in the Reed/McGee/Shaw class.  On Twitter today, I've seen them connected to Reed and Kintzler.  If it's down to those two, Reed is far and away the better buy.  I think Reed is a perfect fit now, actually.  He'd compliment Morrow perfectly because the things you worry about with Morrow--specifically, durability and command--are the things that Reed excels at.

If they got Reed, it would be nice if they could also add McGee too.  But I think at that point they could wait out the market and target someone who falls through the cracks and doesn't sign until mid-January.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17347
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #799 on: December 11, 2017, 04:40:50 pm »
If they are only going to add 1 late inning guy I'd really prefer McGee to Reed.  Montgomery is going to be the swing guy which would leave Wilson as the only lefty in pen.  Detroit Wilson that would be ok, but Cub Wilson that can't throw a strike scares me.

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #800 on: December 11, 2017, 04:46:57 pm »
Surely Jed realizes we still need a couple bullpen arms.

This man has proven to not be stupid.

If it is only one more it means they think the world of Edwards and Maples.

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #801 on: December 11, 2017, 04:53:40 pm »
Theo has made it crystal clear that the Cubs want and expect Schwarber to go back to/become a more pure hitter who makes more consistent contact, one who does not "just sell out on the HR."  He's made this point several times since the end of the season and has said that Schwarber is in agreement.

Thanks, Ron.  Hadn't seen those, so sounds really interesting.   I hope it works.  I wonder what that might mean in terms of adjustments or approach? 

Schwarber was a high-K guy in minors as well as in majors.  So he may be able to shift some things around, but with some variation he's been kinda the similar general profile hitter since he turned pro.  Will be curious to see how much he can redefine himself as a hitter?

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #802 on: December 11, 2017, 07:28:20 pm »
I suppose when Theo says pursuing Stanton didn't make sense because of "some future plans", it does get you thinking a bit.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17347
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #803 on: December 11, 2017, 07:28:41 pm »
Schwarber wasn’t a high K guy in the minors. He was 17.7-20.2% in most of his minor league PA, with a 11.5-17.3% BB%. The only time he was above 25% was in AAA and that is barely 100 PA.

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #804 on: December 11, 2017, 07:42:26 pm »
I wonder if Cub fans expecting Bryce Harper are like UT fans expecting Jon Gruden?

I have a baseball Bryce threw to me in the bleachers at Wrigley back in our shitty days.

Playtwo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8788
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #805 on: December 11, 2017, 08:00:47 pm »
I'm not sure I want Bryce Harper.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #806 on: December 11, 2017, 08:21:37 pm »
Me either.

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #807 on: December 11, 2017, 08:35:24 pm »
I'm sure I do.  At what he ultimately costs?  Who knows.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #808 on: December 11, 2017, 08:38:01 pm »
Andy Martino‏Verified account
@martinonyc
Follow Follow @martinonyc
More
Cubs have shown some interest in Matt Harvey. As with O's and Rangers, unclear how serious as of yet.

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #809 on: December 11, 2017, 08:45:38 pm »
Of course I like Bryce the player.

Im just not gonna like that contract.

I may be more inclined to get 3-5 good players instead of one.