Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75618 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1065 on: December 19, 2017, 08:57:56 am »
Draft question:  If nobody gives Davis a $50 deal, do the Cubs still get a comp pick? 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1066 on: December 19, 2017, 09:08:52 am »
From 2012-2017

Darvish is 18 in fWAR despite being between 200-400 IP behind most of the people ahead of him on the list. Lester and Quintana 9th and 10th.

He is 15th in ERA- (Hendricks is 4th, so put what weight you want into this stat.

Darvish would easily be the Cubs #1 starter.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1067 on: December 19, 2017, 09:29:35 am »
Yup.  Unless Lester somehow reverts to 2016 form Yu would be the de factor #1 guy.  He'd be the projected Game 1 starter.  Hard to overstate how much of an impact a guy like that has on your team.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1068 on: December 19, 2017, 09:57:21 am »
Numbers regardless, you could have potential for a really excellent regular-season rotation.  Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, we could debate who's #1.  But the real advantage would be coming at #3/4.  Choose whichever of those guys you think are #1/2; but whichever two are left as #3/4 could be relatively way good.  Going to have a lot of regular-season games where opponent is at a big disadvantage when using their  #3/#4 starters.

And of course I'm all optimistic that Chatwood will be good too, and will function like a solid #3 starter.  May be a lot of games when Chatwood might go up against opponent's #3/4 guy, and we'll still be at no disadvantage. 

Fun to imagine a rotation where you could expect pretty consistent strong starts day in, day out.  That's good for consistency, and great for regular season. 
I'd be pretty fired up for the 6-month regular season with those five guys. 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1069 on: December 19, 2017, 10:08:21 am »
If we sign Darvish, I won't be surprised if we try a 6-man rotation with Monty for good chunks of the season.  There are a lot of reasons to like the idea.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1070 on: December 19, 2017, 10:10:08 am »
I think a consistent rotation is good for pen.  If rotation is consistently going 6, with as many 7-inning starts as there are 5-inning starts, I'd guess that would make it easier for Hickey to schedule/spread out work among the 8 relievers. 

Enough innings to keep everybody sharp, but not so many as to exhaust anybody. 

Would be pretty desirable to have a relatively consistent collection of 8 relievers, though.  Would hope that for most regular-season 6-inning starts, that you could more often cover 3 innings of relief with 3 relievers rather than needing multiple mid-inning switches and routinely needing 4-5 guys to cover 3 innings. 

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1071 on: December 19, 2017, 10:14:22 am »
It may be a good idea to temper the excitement a tad about Darvish and how much he would benefit the Cubs.  I'm just sayin' ...
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1072 on: December 19, 2017, 10:29:07 am »
If we sign Darvish, I won't be surprised if we try a 6-man rotation with Monty for good chunks of the season.  There are a lot of reasons to like the idea.

I saw someone post this yesterday somewhere else. Here's some discussion from this past weekend on why 6 man rotations are bad from Will Carroll (starts somewhere between 15 and 16 minutes in):

https://omny.fm/shows/julie-dicaro-on-670-the-score/6-man-rotations-are-bad

Basically, there's no evidence that a 6 man rotation that a six man rotation helps keep players healthier.  And with no real evidence, why take about 25 starts from your top 5 starters to give them to your sixth best starter?

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1073 on: December 19, 2017, 10:43:39 am »
Because the body of evidence is too small to draw any definitive conclusions, no matter what Carroll says.  And there's some evidence from NPB that it can actually produce the desired result.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1074 on: December 19, 2017, 10:59:16 am »
I didn't listen to the podcast, so they might have covered this, but I'd argue it's not health as much as freshness.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1075 on: December 19, 2017, 11:15:40 am »
Early in the season, many teams send a fifth stsrter to the minors because there arent enough starts. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1076 on: December 19, 2017, 11:29:14 am »
Jesse Rogers added more to the Cobb/Darvish.

The issue with Cobb seems to be years and not cash.  The Cubs would like a 3 year contract and Cobb is looking for 4/5.  Rogers also added that due to age/health Darvish might only get 4 years.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1077 on: December 19, 2017, 11:36:40 am »
I can’t blame Cobb too much.  Someone out there will give him four.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1078 on: December 19, 2017, 12:04:02 pm »
Non-pitcher, non-Yu discussion. 
1.  Oddity:  Cubs roster presently has only 14 players.  Caratini is 12th man, for now.   

2.  Zagunis and Bote are the others.  Very short roster numbers-wise, and very shallow in "next man up" quality.
 
3.  Cubs could be very active and appealing in acquiring non-roster 4A types.  David Bote and Mark Zagunis the only guys to beat to become "next man up" and be one injury away from a callup?  *IF* you can produce, you've got a great chance.  Don't know who they've signed if any, but I'd think by April there could be some veterans at Iowa. 

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1079 on: December 19, 2017, 12:07:24 pm »
We will probably sign a vet backstop, though they don't have to.  I'm guessing a defensive outfielder, too.