Career 3.42 ERA, last year 3.86.
*Over is career, he's basically been a 6-inning-per-start guy.
*Career average is 1.0 HR/game, lower early in his career, higher lately.
*Turns 32 this summer.
*The hope will be that he can maintain his stuff and his performance for several years, but it's obviously probable that at some point during the contract is stuff is going to decline to some extent going into his mid-30's.
*Fastball has good velocity, but not especially good movement. (Sometimes hitters anticipate fastball against good-fastball guys, but still can't kill it because the life is good. Houston killed them.)
Seems like a solid pitcher, very good, I'd love to get him, and the 2018 Cubs will probably be a LOT more competitive with him than with Lackey or some back-end rotation filler. So I'm fired up about the possibilities. I'm also guessing that he's got stuff so that on his better days, he can probably be really good. Hopefully some of those will be in October and November. But I can't expect him to be great, he's a 3.42 guy who gives up a lot of HR's, and who probably uses a lot of pitches to get through his 6 and once-in-a-while 7 innings.
Kyle Hendricks is sort of the Rodney Dangerfield of the Cubs' pitching staff, and perhaps of major league pitchers in general.
In 2016 he had an ERA+ of 196, 25 points better than next best Jon Lester and 60 points better than Arrieta. Hendricks' FIP in 2016 was 3.20, meaningfully better than Lester's 3.41.... and we all know how important and telling the FIP is.... except when it isn't because it doesn't fit our agenda.
In 2017, despite physical problems that put him on the DL and caused his ERA to bloom to a completely uncharacteristic 4.09 in the first half, he finished again with the best ERA, best ERA+ and best FIP on the team, largely thru a 2nd half ERA of 2.19, close to repeating his 2016 full season ERA of 2.13. His ERA+ in 2017 -- 144, 21 points better than the 2nd best on the team.
So how did Darvish compare? An ERA+ of 118 in 2017 and 134 in 2016, well below Hendricks -- Darvish was at 134 in his better year, while Hendricks was at 144 in his weaker year.
From 2012-2017
Darvish is 18 in fWAR despite being between 200-400 IP behind most of the people ahead of him on the list. Lester and Quintana 9th and 10th.
He is 15th in ERA- (Hendricks is 4th, so put what weight you want into this stat.
Darvish would easily be the Cubs #1 starter.
Yup. Unless Lester somehow reverts to 2016 form Yu would be the de factor #1 guy. He'd be the projected Game 1 starter. Hard to overstate how much of an impact a guy like that has on your team.
Darvish will be 32 next year, an age when most pitchers are NOT improving and are often showing some decline.
Hendricks will be 28, an age when many pitchers are still showing improvement.
Darvish has a WAR the last two years of 5.8; Hendricks has an 8.5
In the world where actual performance on the field is less important than what a pitcher register on a radar gun, Darvish might well be the staff ace in 2018 if the Cubs add him.
In the world where actual on the field performance is more important, Hendricks would be the likely ace, and Darvish a very nice #1 or 2.
Don't get me wrong, I really like the idea of the Cubs signing him. I simply do not believe he would likely be the best starter on the team in 2017. What he would almost certainly do, however, is to help the Cubs field a rotation of at least four very strong starters. Good move.
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