Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75584 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1155 on: December 26, 2017, 10:44:54 am »
Day late, but Merry Christmas, everybody! 
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Playtwo

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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1157 on: December 26, 2017, 03:01:21 pm »
And as most of us know, framing really matters.  That's why if there's going to be a third catcher (assuming Caratini isn't traded) I would love it to be a good framer like Rivera.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1158 on: December 26, 2017, 03:13:15 pm »
Interesting, P2.  I just did a one-minute skim of the article.  But the main points I skimmed were:
1.  Cubs pitch framing went backwards by 33 runs, from 2nd best to 22nd in baseball.
2.  33 runs calculates as ~3 Wins. 
3.  Contreras was terrible (98th out of 110 catchers)   (Avila was worse (105th), and Rivera barely above average.)
4.  Contreras went from 2016-asset (+4.3, 22nd best) to 2017-terrible (-6.3 runs, 98th).

Watching Willson catch, easy to figure he would score as way-bad; bigger surprise that he actually scored as excellent in 2016. 

Looking forward, I have no idea? 
1.  It's a recognized issue, so Willson will focus on it and it do a lot better?
2.  Approach the mean?   After being really high 2016 and maybe a little on low end 2017, due to be average?
3.  2-way street?  Good framing helps pitchers, but maybe strike-throwing pitchers help framing stats, too?  I've gotta figure it's easier to frame well on a guy who hits the target, than with Grimm or Edwards, or often Jake Arrieta. 

I think Theo wants pitchers to risk more strikes and nibble less, and I assume Hickey will probably agree.  Would shifting the approach in that direction impact framing?  I think conceptually framing stats are supposed to be independent of wildness and stuff; but I guess I just assume it's harder to do the framing tricks on balls that are moving more sharply away from the strike zone? 
 


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1159 on: December 26, 2017, 04:17:45 pm »
I think some of Willson's trouble with framing last year was catching Lester and Arrieta and the pressure that put on him getting rid of the quickly to throw runners out.  Framing requires him to be still and Lester/Arrieta required him to get rid of the ball quickly.

Lester, if anyone, should have manifested framing related stat issues.  Lester's BB% was up, but it has gone up for 3 straight years.  His K% had a slight drop from 24.8% to 23.6%.  That doesn't really explain Lester's jump in ERA or FIP though.  (His xFIP- went from 84 to 89 so it wasn't a huge change).  Lester's biggest run problem was his BABIP went from .256 to .310, HR% from 12.2% to 15.8%, and his LOB% went from 84.9% to 68.7%. 

Willson need's to do better framing without a doubt, but some of what he needs to do on defense will limit his ability to frame pitches. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1160 on: December 26, 2017, 04:21:58 pm »
[quote author=craig link=topic=496.msg333143#msg333143 date=1514322795

I think Theo wants pitchers to risk more strikes and nibble less, and I assume Hickey will probably agree.  Would shifting the approach in that direction impact framing?  I think conceptually framing stats are supposed to be independent of wildness and stuff; but I guess I just assume it's harder to do the framing tricks on balls that are moving more sharply away from the strike zone? 
[/quote]

Strike throwing shouldn't matter was umps and pitchers are corrected for.  So if Arreita is hard to catch for instance there is less or no penalty vs say Hendricks giving you less of a bonus.  Willson does stab at the ball to much and that costs strikes, but Lester/Arrieta are so bad at holding on runners you can't always try and frame a pitch with a runner on.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1161 on: December 26, 2017, 04:38:06 pm »
That's a great point on priority on throwing vs framing.   

On Lester, I think all of his numbers declined because his fastball, and his confidence therein, declined.  Weaker fastball, the fastball mistakes are more likely to get hammered.  Weaker fastball, contrast with curve reduces, and less likely to get away with the hanging curves.  Weaker stuff makes him more scared of mistakes over the plate and makes him want to nibble more, so the walks rise.  Pitch count especially, because even when he does get ahead, he's less confident to put a guy away with another strike, and more likely to nibble and hope for a chase swing.  He's an artist, but it's just harder when the fastball is 91.1 versus 92.1 in 2016, or 93.7 back in 2009.  Will be interesting to see whether the fastball reduction was part of WS hangover, and he'll get some back this year?  Or if it's age, and he'll be the same, or lose a little more besides? 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P#pitchtype

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1162 on: December 26, 2017, 04:47:01 pm »
...Strike throwing shouldn't matter was umps and pitchers are corrected for.  So if Arreita is hard to catch for instance there is less or no penalty vs say Hendricks giving you less of a bonus.  Willson does stab at the ball to much and that costs strikes, but Lester/Arrieta are so bad at holding on runners you can't always try and frame a pitch with a runner on.

I know it's not supposed to matter, and the system is supposed to be too smart for that. 

Still, I can't help but think that if you call for an inside fastball with Hendricks, and it's 3 inches off target, it's pretty easy to adjust the glove, to stay still, and to pull it back into the zone.  But if you call for the same pitch but Rondon throws it 3 inches off the outside, wouldn't it be a lot harder to get the glove over there and pull it in? Lucky to stab it at all, and in process of lunging to grab it then momentum pulls the glove further outside?  Good framers have a knack for pulling balls into the plate; that just seems harder with sharp breaking balls breaking away from the plate, or fastballs that are far off target.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1163 on: December 26, 2017, 07:15:10 pm »
Contreras' framing numbers aren't bad because of the movement on Jake's pitches or a staff that's bad at holding runners on - they're bad because he sucks at framing.  Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.  Will he get better with time?  He could - some guys do (a little - most don't) but he's at least good at a lot of other things.  Criticizing Contreras over one element of his game isn't the same as arguing he's not a good player and shouldn't be treated as a third rail.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2017, 08:31:03 pm by Deeg »

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1164 on: December 26, 2017, 08:13:35 pm »
Willson is a bad bad man.

Im sure even Kate Upton has a flaw.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1165 on: December 26, 2017, 08:23:48 pm »
Contreras' framing numbers are... bad because he sucks at framing.  Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar...

Yeah, that seems the most straightforward perspective. 

But how on earth did he come out as +4.3 in 2016, well above average?  A non-reproducible fluke of some kind?

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1166 on: December 26, 2017, 08:29:28 pm »
You've seen him catch - again, doesn't that seem like the most likely scenario?

Also, relatively small sample size in '16 - started 41 games at C.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2017, 08:31:32 pm by Deeg »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1167 on: December 26, 2017, 10:10:12 pm »
Pitch framing stabilization occurs rather quickly just do the sheer number of pitches caught in a game.

Contreras can be horrible at framing, but when he is quite and not set up too far outside he can be good.

Pitch framing is defiantly a skill that can be taught and improved on, so he can get better. The issue is that you have to be quiet behind the plate and he needs to set up better as well. That is going to cost him in the throwing game and picking off runners.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1168 on: December 26, 2017, 10:27:13 pm »
Pitch framing stabilization occurs rather quickly just do the sheer number of pitches caught in a game.

Contreras can be horrible at framing, but when he is quite and not set up too far outside he can be good.

Pitch framing is defiantly a skill that can be taught and improved on, so he can get better. The issue is that you have to be quiet behind the plate and he needs to set up better as well. That is going to cost him in the throwing game and picking off runners.
So if he's "quite" and "defiant" he can improve?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1169 on: December 26, 2017, 11:05:13 pm »
Someday I will have a post without spelling errors. Someday.