Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75500 times)

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27243
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1170 on: December 26, 2017, 11:11:48 pm »
Then where the fun be?

DelMarFan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3285
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1171 on: December 27, 2017, 01:03:21 am »
Automate the strike zone and put an end to this pitch framing horseshit.
Agree Agree x 4 View List

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1172 on: December 27, 2017, 02:54:52 am »
Ill agree with that.

JR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13648
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1173 on: December 27, 2017, 05:08:26 am »
Automate the strike zone and put an end to this pitch framing horseshit.

Amen to that.

I'd also agree with this statement even if the first five words weren't included.

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1174 on: December 27, 2017, 10:25:08 am »
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den

Suggests that using small-sample 2017 defensive metrics, Happ scored better in center than Almora. 

Not sure anybody really believes he's good or as good.  But maybe kinda anti-awful? 

Will be interesting to see how often Almora sits against RHP, and how often it's Heyward versus Happ who takes his place in center.  When Almora sits versus RHP, I can see three ways to get two lefties in CF/RF:
1.  Heyward center/Zobrist right
2.  Heyward center/Happ right
3.  Happ center/Heyward right

If Maddon wants Zo replacing Almora, Heyward has to play center.  But if it's Happ and Heyward, probably makes best sense to leave Heyward in right where he's really good, and put Happ in center which is the easier position to play. 

(Heh heh, obviously also possible if Zo bounces back and Heyward is auto-out that Maddon might at times play Scwarber-Happ-Zobrist even versus a RHP, and just bench Heyward for defensive-replacement purposes later.) 

I'm also hoping that Happ will improve in LF and RF.  Those are obviously harder spots to pick up; the foul walls add difficulty, fly balls get to the wall more easily, the lighting in RF is tough, and in general the spin and slice on balls hit opposite field can be much more difficult than in center.  But the guy really doesn't have much LF/OF experience.  Hopefully he'll improve there with time and practice.

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1175 on: December 27, 2017, 10:30:34 am »
Whether or not Happ can sustain, or perhaps improve somewhat, really could matter an awful lot.  All those 400+ PA of Jon Jay, if Happ goes Schwarber and relapses to being a .200 hitter, that's one thing.  Versus being able to sustain hitting .250 and >.800, or perhaps even improving and blossomed into a .275 hitter without loss of power, that's going to be huge. 

JR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13648
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1176 on: December 27, 2017, 10:40:25 am »
If there's one good thing that's come from all this research into pitch framing, hopefully it will be that baseball's higher ups will notice all this effort that's going into manipulating umpires and realize this is not a healthy thing for baseball and get around to automating the zone.

Really it isn't a healthy thing for baseball in general either that a great young catching talent like Contreras is getting bemoaned because he seemingly forgot how to frame pitches in 2017.  The guy should be viewed as a budding star and should be putting his efforts towards being an even better hitter, even better defensive catcher, etc. instead of worrying that he wasn't good enough at manipulating umpires last season.  That's not healthy for the sport if otherwise all around talented catchers might have to move from the position, might have to be benched, or might have to focus their efforts on pitch framing at the expense of hitting or throwing runners out because of bad pitch framing metrics.  Imagine if pitch framing metrics back in the 90's said Mike Piazza was a bad framer or Johnny Bench was a bad framer in the 70's.  We might be losing otherwise all-time great Hall of Fame players from the position because of that.

I felt like making a post about how pitch framing is a metric that doesn't make the game better or doesn't make the game more enjoyable to watch, but if it leads to automating the strike zone, I'll take that back. 
« Last Edit: December 27, 2017, 12:16:56 pm by JR »
Like Like x 2 Agree Agree x 1 View List

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27243
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1177 on: December 27, 2017, 10:50:47 am »
I can remember when replay after replay BEFORE calls could be reversed showed how good the umpires were.  The umpires were right and replay proved it over 95% of the time.  Then instant replay became a rule and now there seems to be one or two calls a GAME that are reversed because of replay.  Replay has also caused the game to change because infielders frequently get an out merely for holding their glove on runners for that almost imperceptible moment when he comes off the bag to dust himself off.  Umpires seemingly have adopted the same attitude that the NFL officials have...I'll call it and if I'm wrong, replay will make it right.  The pressure to get it right is no longer present.  After throwing the thumb, the ump may think to himself, not sure about that one, but replay will correct it.  Not good. 

As far as automated strikes, today in a game that is 15-1, late innings, umpires may invoke an unspoken mercy rule and call more borderline pitches strikes to end the damb thing, but an automated system won't.  Be prepared to sit another 20 minutes during a blowout.

Playtwo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8787
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1178 on: December 27, 2017, 10:53:38 am »
I'm beginning to think that the Cubs should try to move Zobrist.  That would open up the opportunity to use Happ regularly in multiple positions while giving the large majority of starts in CF and at 2B to Almora and Baez.  The increased development this allows for Almora, Baez, and Happ more than outweighs the possibility that Zobrist would have a big comeback year, IMO.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

DelMarFan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3285
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1179 on: December 27, 2017, 12:18:59 pm »
No real surprise that the back end of the Zobrist contract is feeling albatross-y, but I think he's got a no-trade.  Plus he's the World Series hero.  I think it would be tough to try to move him, even if would make more sense going forward.  Maybe one of those things (like trading Gleyber Torres) that hurts, but you look at and say "yep, but that was the price of winning the World Series."
Agree Agree x 1 View List

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1180 on: December 27, 2017, 12:30:25 pm »
I don't see the need there, P2.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2017.shtml

Happ already got 413 PA, Almora 323, Zobrist 496, and Jay 433.  Splitting up Jay's AB will be more than Almora and Happ alone can handle, they can't take Zobrists also.  (I think La Stella will need to absorb more.)  With Jay gone, there will be plenty of AB's to go around to anybody who's healthy and hitting, I think.   

That was in a season when they were pretty lucky in terms of long-term DL injuries.  Just Russell and Contreras?  (Maybe Zo should have gone on DL and gotten healthy instead of playing through, but he still racked up 496 PA....)

Heh heh, I can see value in unloading Zo not so much to free AB's, but to clear $29/2; or perhaps if you figure he's too old to hit enough to be useful..... 

I also think with Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Heyward, Baez, Heyward, Cubs have a lot of guys who are probably kind of hot-and-cold guys, and with matchup vulnerabilities.  Want to keep some depth so you can depend less on guys when they're cold, or facing a bad pitching matchup, or are dinged up. 

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1181 on: December 27, 2017, 12:37:29 pm »
I could easily see where of the 10 non-catchers, where Zobrist might kind of settle at the back of the line.  Ten guys covering 7 spots, not sure Zo's bat really justifies giving him more starts than Happ or Almora, or perhaps La Stella either? 

Heh heh, maybe of those 10 guys, big FA's Heyward and Zo would be 9th and 10th on the list, in terms of which names you want to see in a starting lineup? 

Playtwo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8787
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1182 on: December 27, 2017, 12:53:36 pm »
Good points, craig.  The issue for me is how to get Almora more playing time without eating into the ABs for Happ or Baez.  It will probably require fewer starts for Zobrist (he had almost 500 PAs last season).  It would help a lot if Zobrist would rebound from his terrible season vs. LHP.  That would give him plenty of time at corner OF vs. tough LH pitchers.  Over half his ABs last year came at 2B, and I think that number needs to drop.

Bennett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7414
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1183 on: December 27, 2017, 12:54:56 pm »
Ben Zobrist's contract status

4 years/$56M (2016-19)
  • signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/9/15
  • $2M signing bonus
  • 16:$10M, 17:$16M, 18:$16M, 19:$12M
  • full no-trade protection for 2016-18
  • limited no-trade protection for 2019 (may block deals to 8 clubs)

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27243
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1184 on: December 27, 2017, 12:58:45 pm »
Is this the time to point out that Maddon loves the guy and all the stats you quote won't mean diddle to Joe.
Agree Agree x 1 View List