Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75595 times)

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1230 on: January 02, 2018, 10:31:03 pm »
I don't see why Montgomery would be heading out, unless of course, there is an unexpected great offer.  But the front office seems to love him in what they see is his role - swing starter/reliever.  Where would they get someone better for a lower price?

Personally, I would rather use him as the fifth starter, and let Butler or even Grimm compete for the swing man.
Damb.  I had hoped you would be smarter in 2018.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1231 on: January 02, 2018, 11:08:24 pm »
Almora had a higher hard contact against right handed pitching than lefties last year. He also had a 10% IFBB against righties vs 0% against lefties. (Soft contact % was fractionally lower vs righties last year). It will be interesting to see if the IFBB% was flukey last year. I’ve always maintained that Almora is underrated on this board.

And I've always maintained Almora is overrated on this board. Almora has never really hit above A ball.  He was mediocre at best in AA and AAA, and has been league average-ish at the MLB level. But his MLB starts have come more often against LHP, and most of his starts against RHP come against guys who get hit by righties. He doesn't walk. His defense hasn't been as advertised at the MLB level. You can cite his hard hit rate all you want...but his overall results over the last 4 full seasons point to him being an average hitter at best.

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Almora being a 2-3 WAR player making less than $1 million helps the Cubs more than Yelich. I like Yelich. He’s a great player, but the acquisition cost is too great for what Happ/Almora can provide in CF for 1/8 the cost of Yelich’s AAV.

Almora was a 1.2 fWAR player in 2017 (and a 1.0 rWAR player). Steamer projects him to be a 1.1 WAR player in 2019. If he took everyday ABs, maybe he'd boost his WAR some...but he'd also be facing tougher RHP pitchers, which would probably drag his WAR down. I think you're dreaming if you think a 2-3 WAR season is likely. And even if a 2 WAR season was likely, I'd say paying the extra $6 million in 2018 for a 4 win player would be worth it.

I think Almora is the next Reed Johnson. That's a good major league player. He can build a good career starting for third/fourth place teams and platooning for contenders. The Cubs aren't a third place team, and everyday players are preferable to platoons.
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1232 on: January 03, 2018, 01:03:29 am »
I think it's a mistake to underestimate Almora.  The only area where Yelich is clearly better is in BB% and therefore in OBP.  Almora is as good as Yelich defensively and has at least as much power.  Almora has only 440 PAs compared to Yelich's 2800+.  Almora's OBP% improved from .308 his rookie season to .338 last year.  Like Almora, Yelich has a severe split differential although in his case he is much weaker vs. LH pitching which is not as serious a flaw.  Almora has proved himself to be a smart player with good baseball instincts.  Almora has a lot of room to grow whereas Yelich has probably reached his ceiling (which is excellent offensively with an OBP that has never dipped below .360).  There's no doubt that I would prefer to have Yelich right now, and that he would fill a big need at the top of our order.  If Miami wants to swap Yelich for Almora for business purposes, I'm in.  But I'm not giving up much else. 
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Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1233 on: January 03, 2018, 10:59:14 am »
Almora is sorely underrated by some on this board.

Albert wants playing time!
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Ray

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1234 on: January 03, 2018, 11:21:18 am »
Almora is sorely underrated by some on this board.

Albert wants playing time!
I agree.  Besides the walks I think he can be very comparable to Yellich. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1235 on: January 03, 2018, 11:21:48 am »
Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1236 on: January 03, 2018, 12:25:31 pm »
I don't believe that Almora will be a superstar.  But I think he will be a very good player, and I would hate to give up a lot to move up from Almora to Yelich (who I agree is better).  I would certainly not trade Baez, Russell, or Happ in order to get Yelich.  And if we still had Jiminez and Cease in our system, I would not trade them for Yelich.  The potential improvement just isn't there, in my opinion.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1237 on: January 03, 2018, 12:33:34 pm »
Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.

No, I would not offer that for Arrieta.  Darvish, yes.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1238 on: January 03, 2018, 12:38:16 pm »
No, I would not offer that for Arrieta.  Darvish, yes.

This is the tough place for a GM.  You want to win. 
So, you say no to $110/4 for Arrieta.
Darvish says no to that offer from you.
Maybe you also don't like to pay whatever Cobb or Lynn want. 

So, then what do you do?  Go with Montgomery?  Go and sign John Lackey?

It's the trouble of having to choose between variably problematic options. 

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1239 on: January 03, 2018, 12:38:42 pm »
I don't believe that Almora will be a superstar.  But I think he will be a very good player, and I would hate to give up a lot to move up from Almora to Yelich (who I agree is better).  I would certainly not trade Baez, Russell, or Happ in order to get Yelich.  And if we still had Jiminez and Cease in our system, I would not trade them for Yelich.  The potential improvement just isn't there, in my opinion.
Good grief.  You're probably still upset about the trades for Heredia and the other fool.   ;)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1240 on: January 03, 2018, 12:39:49 pm »
Almora was a 1.2 fWAR player in 2017 (and a 1.0 rWAR player). Steamer projects him to be a 1.1 WAR player in 2019. If he took everyday ABs, maybe he'd boost his WAR some...but he'd also be facing tougher RHP pitchers, which would probably drag his WAR down. I think you're dreaming if you think a 2-3 WAR season is likely. And even if a 2 WAR season was likely, I'd say paying the extra $6 million in 2018 for a 4 win player would be worth it.

I think Almora is the next Reed Johnson. That's a good major league player. He can build a good career starting for third/fourth place teams and platooning for contenders. The Cubs aren't a third place team, and everyday players are preferable to platoons.

There's a lot to unpack in here, but Almora put up 1.2 fWAR in 323 PA.  I think the defensive metrics are also underselling his defense at this point, but in 836 innings in CF he has a UZR/150 of 5.7.  That would have given him a higher ranking last year than Jackie Bradley Jr, Inciarte and Lorenzo Cain last year.  So his defense hasn't really been that bad. 

Put let's look at what the defense would get you over 600 PA.  Almora had a wRC+ of 81 against RHP last year.  Kevin Pillar had a wRC+ of 85 last year and he had a UZR/150 of 7.4.  That type of offense and defense was equal to 1.9 fWAR last year.  Now Pillar had a wRC+ of 148 against lefties and 64 against righties, so he is more split prone than Almora.  The year before when Pillar had a wRC+ of 81 and a UZR/150 of 26.3 he was worth 3.3 fWAR.  Almora's spring speed last year was 27.7 to Pillar's 27.9 mph so the speed is similar.  So it isn't hard to get to 2 WAR with bad offense and slightly above average defense.  Put up some excellent defensive numbers and you have a 3 WAR player.  Jackie Bradley Jr had a wRC+ of 90 and was worth 2.3 fWAR is another example.


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1241 on: January 03, 2018, 12:48:10 pm »
Good grief.  You're probably still upset about the trades for Heredia and the other fool.   ;)
Karchner, don't ever forget.

Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.

That would get him off the books the same time as Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Schwarber, Baez and Montgomery.  I think that is more important to the Cubs than the AAV.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1242 on: January 03, 2018, 01:11:02 pm »
This is the tough place for a GM.  You want to win. 
So, you say no to $110/4 for Arrieta.
Darvish says no to that offer from you.
Maybe you also don't like to pay whatever Cobb or Lynn want. 

So, then what do you do?  Go with Montgomery?  Go and sign John Lackey?

It's the trouble of having to choose between variably problematic options. 

Yes, no one ever said this was easy.  If none of your targets are coming in at what you consider acceptable levels, you have to make a choice between several seemingly bad choices.  Too much AMV for Jake?  Too many years for Yu?  Too much of both for mediocrity with Cobb?  Roll the dice on Monty?  This is why Theo gets paid so much money - to look at the risk-reward on a bunch of sweaty-palm options and pick the most favorable one.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1243 on: January 03, 2018, 01:30:02 pm »
Jake at 5/120M

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1244 on: January 03, 2018, 01:31:21 pm »
Is that a report?