No one under appreciates Hendricks here, he's been great. He'll probably continue to be good for the next three years while the Cubs still control him.
But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. All pitchers are risky by nature, especially those with no real margin for error.
In theory, I think some combination of all the reasons listed below could motivate them to trade Hendricks:
- The risk mentioned above--at some point, maybe the trade value is worth more than his expected future on-field value once risk is factored in.
- The farm system is weak and Hendricks has a lot of value--he can help refill the pipeline as the current core starts closing in on free agency.
- He's getting expensive, the Cubs are getting close to the luxury tax, and he's a significant salary they can move easily.
- He's getting close to free agency--he'll only be two years away next offseason. He's probably not going to be a priority to sign long term over guys like Bryant or Contreras (or Harper or Machado if they decide to get into those markets next offseason). So maybe he's less untouchable a year from now.
I think it's unlikely for Hendricks to get traded, but I see the reasoning.
Hendricks has always been compared to Doug Fister as a control artist with low (for MLB) velocity. So I think it's interesting to note that when Fister was 29 and had four years of MLB service (which will be Hendricks' status next year), the Tigers traded him to the Nationals for what was viewed as a questionable trade at the time. The Tigers got a lot of criticism. But it turned out that they moved on at the right time. Fister has been worth a total of about 4 fWAR in his last four seasons after being worth almost 16 fWAR in his first four years.