Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75667 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1305 on: January 05, 2018, 05:55:28 pm »
Why on earth would they move Hendricks?

Hendricks continues to be perhaps the most unappreciated Cub among some folks here. Pretty sure he's unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts.
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Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1306 on: January 05, 2018, 06:18:31 pm »
Hendricks continues to be perhaps the most unappreciated Cub among some folks here. Pretty sure he's unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts.

Did you perhaps forget to include a "not" in there?  Like, "Pretty sure he's not unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts."

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1307 on: January 05, 2018, 06:40:30 pm »
No one under appreciates Hendricks here, he's been great. He'll probably continue to be good for the next three years while the Cubs still control him.

But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. All pitchers are risky by nature, especially those with no real margin for error.

In theory, I think some combination of all the reasons listed below could motivate them to trade Hendricks:
 - The risk mentioned above--at some point, maybe the trade value is worth more than his expected future on-field value once risk is factored in.
 - The farm system is weak and Hendricks has a lot of value--he can help refill the pipeline as the current core starts closing in on free agency.
 - He's getting expensive, the Cubs are getting close to the luxury tax, and he's a significant salary they can move easily.
 - He's getting close to free agency--he'll only be two years away next offseason. He's probably not going to be a priority to sign long term over guys like Bryant or Contreras (or Harper or Machado if they decide to get into those markets next offseason). So maybe he's less untouchable a year from now.

I think it's unlikely for Hendricks to get traded, but I see the reasoning. 

Hendricks has always been compared to Doug Fister as a control artist with low (for MLB) velocity. So I think it's interesting to note that when Fister was 29 and had four years of MLB service (which will be Hendricks' status next year), the Tigers traded him to the Nationals for what was viewed as a questionable trade at the time. The Tigers got a lot of criticism. But it turned out that they moved on at the right time. Fister has been worth a total of about 4 fWAR in his last four seasons after being worth almost 16 fWAR in his first four years.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1308 on: January 05, 2018, 06:55:59 pm »
I would take the contrarian view that Hendricks is perhaps the most fetishized player around here...

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1309 on: January 05, 2018, 07:01:32 pm »
No one under appreciates Hendricks here, he's been great. He'll probably continue to be good for the next three years while the Cubs still control him.


Many here have under appreciated him ever since he came up, minimizing his success, insisting it could not be repeated, describing it as smoke and mirrors, and viewing him as anything other than the best starter on the staff.  That attitude tends to match hand-in-glove with the belief of many than top pitchers have to be hard throwers and that pitchers getting lots of strikeouts are inherently better than those who do not.

Contending otherwise is nonsense.... particularly when the contention comes from someone whose own comments put him in that under appreciating category --
But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. 

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1310 on: January 05, 2018, 07:07:47 pm »
But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. All pitchers are risky by nature, especially those with no real margin for error.

br, what you say is true, but Hendricks is a genuine outlier.  He has once in a generation command combined with once in a generation pitching skills.  He's going to be a very difficult case for Theo.  I get the impression that Theo looks for comparables to see how they age, etc.  There aren't many comparables for Kyle.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1311 on: January 05, 2018, 07:21:58 pm »
When Hendricks velocity was down last year he wasn’t as good.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1312 on: January 05, 2018, 07:39:49 pm »
I get that Hendricks is an outlier...but presumably, even once in a generation pitching skills stop being effective at some velocity level for any (non-knuckleball) pitcher. What is that velocity level? I don't know, but I'd guess it's closer to 85 mph than 75 mph.

I also really worry about injury risk for him. If he had a significant arm injury, then I think you have to worry if he'd still have the command and movement he absolutely has to have to succeed.

I'm not really advocating one way or the other...I can see the argument for trading him, and I understand why most here wouldn't want to trade him. I just wanted to make the point that suggesting or advocating for a Hendricks trade isn't necessarily a case of someone under appreciating Hendricks. It's an interesting discussion to have and a decision that I'm glad Theo will be making.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1313 on: January 05, 2018, 07:49:30 pm »
Recently, Hendricks was ranked #11 of MLB aces.  He was in lofty company. We would be thrilled with any of the ten listed above him.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1314 on: January 05, 2018, 08:39:12 pm »
What is that velocity level? I don't know, but I'd guess it's closer to 85 mph than 75 mph.
Jared Weaver became less effect at 86.
Doug Fister decline started at 87, less effective at 86.
Maddux was worth 3.9 fWAR in his 41 year old season and average 87.2 on his sinker.  He was worth 2.4 fWAR as a 42 year old and averaged 83.9 on his sinker.

Hendricks was still good last year and averaged 86.3, but he wasn't as good as when he was 88-89.  I think it safe to say Hendricks can't afford to lose much more on his velocity and maintain his high level of production.  I would say he'll age better than Fister, but not as well as Maddux.

DelMarFan

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1315 on: January 05, 2018, 09:00:07 pm »
Quote
Recently, Hendricks was ranked #11 of MLB aces.

Currently #12 on the Bill James Starting Pitcher list.

Ahead of Lester.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1316 on: January 05, 2018, 09:23:08 pm »
I'm not sure how one can say Hendricks has "once in a generation" command and pitching skills.  That's an incredibly sweeping statement.

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1317 on: January 05, 2018, 09:38:35 pm »
Why on earth would they move Hendricks?

The best reason would be if Theo felt Hendricks perceived value around the league was higher than Theo's opinion of his value.  As many have suggested, there is little margin for error.  If his velocity drops a few MPHs he will be taking advantage of his Ivy League education as opposed to getting outs.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1318 on: January 05, 2018, 09:42:17 pm »
I believe that Hendricks is the best pitcher on the current rotation, and is likely to continue to be so for the next several years.  He had a slump in the first half of last season when pitching through minor injuries, but his second half was quite comparable to his outstanding 2016.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1319 on: January 05, 2018, 09:55:17 pm »
Personally, I take Quintana over Hendricks in a heartbeat.
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