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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75876 times)

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1425 on: January 17, 2018, 09:35:42 am »
Bortolo Colon always has a good first half.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1426 on: January 17, 2018, 09:40:35 am »
I'd rather have Montgomery in the rotation than Lynn.

Maples is super interesting.  If he throws can throw enough strikes he has the best raw stuff in the pen.

Duensing at 2/$7 million is a nice deal, I wasn't a fan of bringing him back because I thought he'd cost a lot more/year.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1427 on: January 17, 2018, 09:51:20 am »
Very fair for Duensing.  I think it's better than even-money he regresses back to a 4A pitcher, but we haven't lost much.

My fear is that Cobb caves before Yu and we sign him, Darvish's market totally dries up and the Yankees or Dodgers end up with the guy everybody wanted - as usual - as a bargain basement price.
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1428 on: January 17, 2018, 10:04:35 am »
Good to see Duensing back.  Now let's get Jake/Yu and we're pretty much ready for battle.
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JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1429 on: January 17, 2018, 10:26:34 am »
Once Duensing is added, the 40-man roster will stand at 39.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1430 on: January 17, 2018, 12:17:27 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on January 17, 2018, 09:40:35 am
Maples is super interesting.  If he throws can throw enough strikes he has the best raw stuff in the pen....

If Maples, Edwards, Morrow, Strop, Grimm, and Wilson could all locate, that would be a VERY talented collection of strong-stuff relievers.   
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1431 on: January 17, 2018, 12:24:41 pm »
Quote from: JeffH on January 17, 2018, 09:30:40 am
We're a little over $30 million below the luxury tax threshold with only one starting rotation slot and the backup catcher position to fill.

Thanks, Jeff.  That seems to give plenty of space to add the priciest of the pitchers, AND still have some cushion for picking up a contract in July if needed. 

For lux purposes, they usually give signing bonus which pro-rates, right?  So even if they did sign Darvish, they could probably both give him a nice signing bonus but also have a relatively modest lux-tax hit for this year.  I almost wonder if they wouldn't prefer to structure it frontloaded.  Rather than "waste" some under-lux space this year, push as many cap dollars into this year as is practical.  (Not $30, of course, because they'll want to keep their July-contract-pickup cushion.) 
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1432 on: January 17, 2018, 12:54:15 pm »
Luxury tax is calucalted on AAV.  So a 5 year/$125 contract counts as $25 million even in you pay $100 million in the first year.  There must be some wording preventing longer contracts so you couldn't sing Darvish to 10 year/$160 million contract paying him peanuts at the end so he just retires.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1433 on: January 17, 2018, 12:59:22 pm »
Thanks! 
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1434 on: January 17, 2018, 01:44:36 pm »
Carrie Muskat makes the case for Kris Bryant batting leadoff. I thought this was a good idea last season.  Not only is he a high OBP guy, he's reportedly the fastest runner on the team, with good instincts. 

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/batting-bryant-leadoff-makes-sense-for-cubs/c-264778282

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Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1435 on: January 17, 2018, 01:47:25 pm »
Quote from: Ron on January 17, 2018, 01:44:36 pm
Carrie Muskat makes the case for Kris Bryant batting leadoff. I thought this was a good idea last season.  Not only is he a high OBP guy, he's reportedly the fastest runner on the team, with good instincts. 

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/batting-bryant-leadoff-makes-sense-for-cubs/c-264778282


Whatever change CreateAForum made recently isn't working as well as it should.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1436 on: January 17, 2018, 02:50:35 pm »
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/17/lukewarm-stove-giants-and-pirates-move-market-creative-yankees-offer-for-darvish-much-more/

So, speaking of the Yankees’ involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, Joel Sherman tries to get creative with a potential Yankees offer, which would pay Darvish $30M annually in his first two years in New York, with an opt-out thereafter, but keeps his AAV down by making the full deal six years and $120M, which could be just low enough to sneak under the luxury tax threshold in 2018. It assumes a lot about Darvish’s financial preferences (and multiple opt-outs always make things a bit more complicated), but according to the Commissioner’s Office and Players Association, this would not be against the rules. There would be a monetary “true-up” expense down the line, but it would count towards their 2020 payroll for luxury tax purposes, not 2018. If Darvish thinks he’ll still be rocking two years from now, this could be the way he maximizes his earnings. The Yankees would be taking on a TON of risk to do this, though.

Heywards contract has been structured the same way.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1437 on: January 17, 2018, 03:15:01 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on January 17, 2018, 02:50:35 pm
So, speaking of the Yankees’ involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, Joel Sherman tries to get creative with a potential Yankees offer

Sherman and Heyman have really been working this offseason trying to find a way for the Yankees to sign Darvish. Both keep pushing the "Ellsbury could be traded" narrative even though no other team wants him (and he has a full no trade clause anyway). They're supposedly national writers (though Sherman does his writing for a NY based paper), but they can't help but act like Yankees beat writers half the time.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1438 on: January 17, 2018, 04:20:56 pm »
Only reason I shared it was JH contract is front loaded to a smaller degree and just on the super small chance he opts opt.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1439 on: January 17, 2018, 05:23:23 pm »
Can there really be any doubt of how much the Cubs can and will offer Darvish at this point?  The roster is pretty much set.  And we're literally almost running out of time before pitchers and catchers report.  Yu is clearly their first choice, but dragging this out much longer seems kind of pointless.
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