Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75792 times)

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1440 on: January 17, 2018, 05:46:30 pm »
Think how boring this offseason has been to fans of most other teams. As frustrating as it has been to wait for the Darvish/Cobb/Arrietta situation play out, at least the Cubs have otherwise been active. They've added Chatwood and three relievers (plus Smyly)--that probably puts them among the top five or so most active teams this offseason.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1441 on: January 17, 2018, 05:52:29 pm »
No doubt, but that doesn't change the fact that the Darvish situation seems to be at a stalemate.  Might be time for an ultimatum. 

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1442 on: January 17, 2018, 06:02:20 pm »
For all we know, there might have already been and ultimatum.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1443 on: January 17, 2018, 06:06:15 pm »
If Maples, Edwards, Morrow, Strop, Grimm, and Wilson could all locate, that would be a VERY talented collection of strong-stuff relievers.

I know that since the days of the Nasty Boys in the Reds' bullpen in 1990 many people have wanted "strong-stuff relievers."

As a result the market inefficiency is almost certainly such that NON-power relievers with a decent track record of getting outs is almost certainly a better way to go.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1444 on: January 17, 2018, 06:09:06 pm »
We still need a starter and a reliever.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1445 on: January 17, 2018, 06:12:18 pm »
With Duensing signed, I can't imagine them adding another reliever at this point. What they have is what they'll go with.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1446 on: January 17, 2018, 06:31:59 pm »
The schedule often has an impact on the mix between starters and relievers at the start of a season.

The Cubs begin with four games at Miami on March 29 - April 1, followed by two games in Cincinnati on April 2 - 3.  April 4 is the first off day followed by four games in Milwaukee on April 5-8.  April 9 is the home opener against Pittsburgh .  That means they six games, an off day, and five more games before the next off day.  Needing only four starters for a week or two doesn't happen this year.



https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2018-04

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1447 on: January 17, 2018, 06:39:46 pm »
The schedule often has an impact on the mix between starters and relievers at the start of a season.

The Cubs begin with four games at Miami on March 29 - April 1, followed by two games in Cincinnati on April 2 - 3.  April 4 is the first off day followed by four games in Milwaukee on April 5-8.  April 9 is the home opener against Pittsburgh .  That means they six games, an off day, and five more games before the next off day.  Needing only four starters for a week or two doesn't happen this year.



https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2018-04

Looks like 11-0 to start the season.
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guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1448 on: January 17, 2018, 06:58:16 pm »
So our pen was a weakness last year and we replaced two relievers with guys who arent as good as they were?

If they are done either we'll trade Ian Happ for one at the deadline or not have a very good year one.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1449 on: January 17, 2018, 07:26:56 pm »
Cishek is better than Rondon but if money wasnt a factor I would take Davis over Morrow.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1450 on: January 17, 2018, 07:32:26 pm »
The Cubs bullpen wasn't a huge weakness--they were middle of the pack. Obviously as a World Series contending team, you want to be better than average. But I don't think they need as much help as you think. (By the way, Fangraphs has the 2018 Cubs projected as the 6th best bullpen in baseball right now by fWAR.)

Davis may have been more valuable overall than Morrow last year because Morrow started the season in the minors. But Morrow was the better pitcher once he joined the Dodgers. I'd take Morrow over Davis going forward no question, even with the injury risk.

Cishek is significantly better than the version of Rondon the Cubs have had since he hurt himself midseason 2016. It's probably unlikely that the 2014-2015 version of Rondon is coming back.

Don't forget about the addition of Wilson--that could be huge. If he returns to his Tigers form (and there's good reason to think he will, IMO), that's a huge difference between last year's pen and this year's pen.

I think the pitching coach change could be a bigger factor than we realize too. I think we may have overlooked some of Bosio's shortcomings over the years because of how much success he had with Arrieta. I get the impression that he's probably about as good as it gets when dealing with old school, bulldog types like Arrieta, Lester, and Lackey. And Hendricks has such a good idea of how to pitch that I don't think his pitching coach matters as much. But I wonder if other pitchers may be better off with a different type of coach. Specifically, the lack-of-command guys (Edwards, Wilson, Strop) could benefit from a different voice with (what I perceive will be) a more modern/analytical approach.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1451 on: January 17, 2018, 07:51:42 pm »
This is same as br's, but since I'd already written it almost, thought I'd post it anyway.  I'm intrinsically a big optimist.  So while I know objectively that things might go wrong with the pen, I'm really hopeful that it will go well.  What are some scenarios for the pen to be excellent, better than last year overall (which wasn't bad) and way better than the post-season pen that sticks in memory (which was awful)?

1.  If Morrow is excellent.  If Davis to Morrow is not a significant fall, if any.  Morrow throws harder, so may be able to attack the strike zone with fastballs more aggressively than Davis. 
2.  Expect Cishek >> Rondon.  Rondon was bad last year.  Chance for a big improvement there.  And as a strike-thrower, may be less uncertainty about what you'll get on a given night. 
3.  Expect Wilson >> Wilson.  Wilson wasn't good last year, for us.  (to say the least).
4.  Expect Grimm > Grimm.  Grimm was horrific last year.  Given that he wasn't nearly so awful in previous Cubs years, either he'll be less bad, or else he'll be replaced. 
5.  Expect Maples >> Johnson/Florio/Frankoff.  The Iowa yo-yo's were really bad.  Maples might be somewhere well north on the antiawful continuum. 
6.  Edwards/Montgomery:  The October versions are in my head, Edwards unable to throw a strike; Montgomery 14H/9R in 4 innings.  But MM pitched more innings as starter than in relief, where he was a 2.49 ERA guy during season; think he's got a chance to be effective.  Perhaps more so if he's consistently used in relief? 
« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 07:53:56 pm by craig »

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1452 on: January 17, 2018, 08:30:16 pm »
Looks like 11-0 to start the season.

Me thinks someone is doomed to disappointment.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1453 on: January 18, 2018, 01:12:26 pm »
Expecting anything more than 10-1 is just plain silly.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1454 on: January 19, 2018, 10:22:26 am »
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
I asked an MLB executive what he expects on the free agent and trade markets from here. "My latest guess is a consistent trickle for the next few weeks, and then a mad rush the week before spring training,'' he said. That pretty much summarizes the offseason. #consistenttrickle


So another 2-3 weeks of next to nothing, then we finally get the activity we usually see at the Winter Meetings.