This is same as br's, but since I'd already written it almost, thought I'd post it anyway. I'm intrinsically a big optimist. So while I know objectively that things might go wrong with the pen, I'm really hopeful that it will go well. What are some scenarios for the pen to be excellent, better than last year overall (which wasn't bad) and way better than the post-season pen that sticks in memory (which was awful)?
1. If Morrow is excellent. If Davis to Morrow is not a significant fall, if any. Morrow throws harder, so may be able to attack the strike zone with fastballs more aggressively than Davis.
2. Expect Cishek >> Rondon. Rondon was bad last year. Chance for a big improvement there. And as a strike-thrower, may be less uncertainty about what you'll get on a given night.
3. Expect Wilson >> Wilson. Wilson wasn't good last year, for us. (to say the least).
4. Expect Grimm > Grimm. Grimm was horrific last year. Given that he wasn't nearly so awful in previous Cubs years, either he'll be less bad, or else he'll be replaced.
5. Expect Maples >> Johnson/Florio/Frankoff. The Iowa yo-yo's were really bad. Maples might be somewhere well north on the antiawful continuum.
6. Edwards/Montgomery: The October versions are in my head, Edwards unable to throw a strike; Montgomery 14H/9R in 4 innings. But MM pitched more innings as starter than in relief, where he was a 2.49 ERA guy during season; think he's got a chance to be effective. Perhaps more so if he's consistently used in relief?