Bleacher Bums Forum

Onward and upward…

So we hope (and expect).

2023 payroll summary.  All values AAV.  Subject to change with trades, of course.

Players under contract:

Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667

Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):

Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000

Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck

Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or Hoerner extensions.

Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on the opening day roster at $800,000 each):

Subtotal $5,600,000

Running total = $108,841,667

That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.

$75-$85 million for 9 spots?

One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP?  Maybe one more auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league deal?

Heyward and Hendricks $35 expiring. 

...Your projected range would put them somewhere around 10th overall.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs. And that's before considering the notion that the 2022 Cubs have supposedly "banked" some dollars to apply to future years' payrolls..

tico, could you expand on that?  Why is it implausible that the Cubs might elect to spend ~10th? 

Also, when you say that's "before considering" the banked-dollars notion, are you saying even with banked dollars, that ~10th is even then still an unimaginable scenario?  Or are you saying that ~10th is unimaginable before the banked dollars, but that with the addition of hypothetically banked dollars, perhaps ~10th might become plausible? 

I also wonder how they process Heyward?  Obviously mlb bills him for 2023.  But I wonder whether in a sense "banked dollars" were accounted to erase Heyward obligation? 

It's interesting that Stroman's deal drops by $4 in 24.  Add that to Hendricks and Heyward, and it's $40 coming off. 

Happ and Hoerner are the only meaningful guys in the Arb stage.  Hoerner will be Arb 1 this year.  So he'll inflate.  But other than relief pitchers or Madrigal, it's a couple years out before built-in arb-inflation will start to be significant. 

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood!  "I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs." 
*I misread that, as Hoyer being the 2023 Cubs, who wouldn't accept spending into the top-10 yet at this point in the rebuild, in which case Jeff's $75-85 is too high. 
*But I obviously read that wrong: the idea is that Jeff's $75-85 is too low, especially with the banked dollars, and it's 2023 Cub fans who won't accept that level of spending. 

No way Correa signs for that AV, IMHO.  And you’d be nuts to give Abreu that much.  The other numbers look pretty close.