Bleacher Bums Forum

In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no? 

Yes, absolutely. The Cubs have the resources, flexibility, and depth of talent to overpay if that's what it takes. This is one of the advantages of being a big market team, and "overpaying" should not be viewed as an automatic negative.

2.  Pitchers?  What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for whatever reason?  Who knows?  Or if the Cub scouts don't really see Senga as being that good? 

If we don't pick up either Rodon or Senga, the pitching question does get tougher, to be sure. I'd be happy to sign any of DeGrom, Verlander, or Kershaw to a short term deal, but think it's likely all 3 stay with their current teams on new deals. Bassitt and Anderson are two intriguing options that lack the headliner stuff of a Rodon, but would still legitimately profile as +3WAR SP pickups. So it's not Rodon, Senga, or bust, but the quality of options does begin to fall apart after the Bassitt/Anderson tier. LIAB injury pickups include Severino, Thor, Eovaldi, Heaney, etc.

There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions we need most.  2B or 3B, like nobody, right?

Given the positional flexibility of Wisdom, Hoerner, and Morel, if the Cubs don't land one of the Big 4, they could absolutely sign someone in the Abreu-Rizzo-Mancini-Bell 1B class and reshuffle players around the diamond as necessary. Obviously preferable to sign one of the Big 4 SS and go from there, but the Cubs still have options if they don't.

I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at least another near SS.

Slight disagree, but I understand what you're saying here.

Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings.  Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you some extra money.  It is really hard to just spend your way to a good team.

$23M from Heyward is savings straight to the bottom line.

On replacing Stroman, I think we need to consider the rotation as a whole. Essentially, I'm hoping that moving into the 2024 season, we can comfortably slot Steele into Stroman's spot, and that one of Thompson, Killian, Wicks, Wesneski, etc., can be counted on as a Steele replacement. There is absolutely real savings opportunity here as our minor league pitching talent evolves.

If Contreras doesn't accept the QO, there is immediate savings at C this year. And if he does, I don't imagine the Cubs will be looking to earmark $20M for a starter there in 2024. Either this year or next, a good amount of this $ will fall to the bottom line.

And if one of the Davis, Canario, PCA, etc., group isn't ready to take over Happ's spot in 2024, that will be extremely disappointing.

In short, I disagree - I think there are meaningful savings opportunities with the money coming off next year.

I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a projection.  That team, just ball parking it would be right around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins.  It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big chunk.

Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?

What if they don't want us?  Great question.  Lester, of course, had a special relationship with Theo.  Others?  We overpay...Heyward, for example.  What do our coveted players see?  A team that came in second in most competitions, and who didn't try too hard to keep its super stars.  Or we trade them, Yu.  Our FA record is not impressive.

I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him.  They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt.  Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with.  On Rodon, not so much.

The question is, do they want him?  Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.

I think the Cubs are going to go after one of the four shortstops, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps75%) of getting one of them.  I think they will also go after Senga or Rodon, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps 50%) chance of getting one of them.  If they do get both positions, I highly doubt that they will spend much money for a center fielder.  Perhaps Abreu, if they can get him for 10 - 12 million, but other than the usual middle of the pack relievers, that is going to be it for the winter as far as large investments are concerned.  At the trade deadline, when their needs are more firmly defined, they might try to plug another hole.

But under no circumstances do I expect to see them bring in so much talent this winter that they can enter the season as a top tier competitor for the World Series.

I hope they sign Contreras to a long term contract.

I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him.  They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt.  Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with.  On Rodon, not so much.

The question is, do they want him?  Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.

Agree.  Don't think there is any reason why the Cubs wouldn't have a fair chance to compete for Senga, *if* they want him.  But as you say, do they?  And *if* they both want him and pay what it take to get him, will that scouting be vindicated?  Who knows. 

Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels actually do trade Ohtani.  What, realistically, would you offer for him as a one-year rental?

My personal opinion would be, nothing.  I’d wait and hope he makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field and the revenue his presence generates for the club.  But if you were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?

Ohtani strikes me as one of the few players who might sign an extension with a team that trades for him, assuming he has a good experience and believes in the organization's commitment to winning (no jokes, please).

An outfielder, a shortstop, a starting pitcher, and a reliever.

Davis/Alcantara/Canario/Caissie, Hernandez/Howard/Made, Brown/Kilian/Devers, Leeper/Leigh/Correa/Sanders

Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?

Super science. Honestly if you look at the ZIPS projections from last year the Dodgers and Braves were the only National League teams with more than 90 wins. The Cardinals had an 88 game projection and the Phillies had 83.  I think that team would fall somewhere in that range. That team could be above 90 wins, but it also could struggle.

I listened to the CHGO Cubs podcast with Brendan and Corey and they were talking about Jed on the Score. Jed talked about reducing variance in the outcomes games.  Basically you are talented teams that can blow out teams and reduce 1 run games. Trying to get to that team in one off-season is going to be near impossible so the error range is going to be large for the Cubs.

The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).

That is what the Cubs need to build, not a team with a bunch of solid players. You need some stars and then surround them with really good players.

When I look at the farm Alcantara and maybe PCA OR Davis if they hit their 1% projection could be the stars.  Without drafting near the top of the draft, the Cubs haven’t shown the ability to get a star later. That leaves IFA and even if the Cubs are signing Wander Franco that is 3 years away. It leaves free agency as the only viable option for getting a star.

Judge scares me so that really leaves Soto and Ohtani as a possible target. Having a clean finachial sheet is the only way that happens and allows you fill holes on the team that prospects don’t fill.

Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less than my proposed team budget