Author Topic: Hot Stove 2015  (Read 23612 times)

Dave23

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Hot Stove 2015
« on: November 04, 2014, 02:52:49 pm »
Free agency is firing up...who's going where?

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Ron

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2014, 03:56:02 pm »
I think it's a given that the Cubs' primary free agent target is Jon Lester, and it seems very possible that they'll succeed in signing him, assuming that he's not focused exclusively on money. That would be very, very cool.

The second player with whom the Cubs have been frequently linked is Russell Martin. Jon Heyman, the first guy to report the Cubs had gone after and then reached a deal with Jon Maddon, is reporting that the Cubs are definitely targeting Martin.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24783904/cubs-already-a-big-free-agent-player-are-targeting-russell-martin

I do really hope that the Cubs are able to get Martin. Beyond his obvious fine offensive and defensive attributes, he also brings, by all accounts, special leadership qualities. That's something the Cubs have repeatedly emphasized that they intend to look for in any additions. It's hard to imagine another position player who would be as valuable to the Cubs over the next few years. My main concern is that the length of contract could be an insurmountable obstacle.

Speaking of leadership qualities, I can't help but wonder if the Cubs have more interest in James Shields than is generally assumed here.  I know that there is understandable wariness toward Shields.  But I can't help but wonder if he could end up fairly high among Cub priorities this winter, at least if they do not sign Lester (who is two years younger than Shields).  There are two special considerations when it comes to Shields.  The first is his exceptional reputation as a clubhouse and field leader who is credited with changing the culture in Kansas City, in a brief period of time. This quality is something the Cubs have repeatedly stressed as a priority as they evaluate potential additions.  The second consideration is his history with Joe Maddon. Is there a possibility of Shields agreeing to a relatively shorter, reasonably priced deal in order to play for Maddon and be part of history with the Cubs?

« Last Edit: November 04, 2014, 03:58:05 pm by Ron »

CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2014, 04:03:28 pm »
Ron, I was not really impressed with Shields or Peavy in the postseason.  Shields proved to be a good leader and decent pitcher until September which makes me worry that he either tired or is hurt and flying under the radar.  If we sign him, fine, but I hope they don't spend too much.

I agree with the sentiment that you can never have enough pitching, but you do only have 40 roster spots.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2014, 04:05:37 pm »
If the Cubs fail to get Lester, I would think that Schields would be their second target.  Scherzer is likely to be even more costly than Lester.

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2014, 04:16:45 pm »
Lester/McCarthy with a Brian Anderson kicker would be nice.

I like the idea of Martin, I'm just scared about giving a 31 catcher 4-5 years.  They break down quickly and his offense this year was BABIP fueled.

The Angels signed a 20 year old Cuban, Roberto Baldoquin, for $8 million.  He was subject to the IFA pools so it will cost the Angels around $14 million with penalties.  He wasn't mentioned in Badler's latest piece on Cubans so it will be interesting what Moncada goes for. 

Ron

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2014, 04:42:14 pm »
Ron, I was not really impressed with Shields or Peavy in the postseason.  Shields proved to be a good leader and decent pitcher until September which makes me worry that he either tired or is hurt and flying under the radar.  If we sign him, fine, but I hope they don't spend too much.

I agree with the sentiment that you can never have enough pitching, but you do only have 40 roster spots.

Curt, Shields was very, very good the last couple of months of the season, after having some struggles earlier.  His ERA and WHIP for August and Sept/Oct were 2.95/1.078 and .231/0.857, respectively.

Granted he did not do well in the playoffs, but he was hardly alone in that regard. See Clayton Kershaw (7.82 ERA), Max Scherzer (6.14 ERA), Jon Lester (7.36 ERA).

CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2014, 04:57:11 pm »
Ron, he wasn't the stud we were looking for, you know, a guy like Edwin Jackson.

craig

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2014, 05:03:32 pm »
I know Lester is the name, and he had an excellent season (2.80 FIP). 

Lester's previous three seasons were 3.59, 4.11, and 3.83 FIP.  So this is really the first year in four where he's been more than a #3/#2 guy. 

Scherzer:  2.85, 2.74, and 3.27 FIP last three years, with K/W ratios of 3.8, 4.3, and 4.0, and massive K volumes ((231, 240, 252).  Dominant stuff. 

Shields:  3.59, 3.47, 3.47, 3.42 FIPs his last four seasons.  Despite pitching in Kansas City, he's still given up lots of HR's; the HR's could get ugly in Wrigley field.  (Did any WS announcers remind us how cavernous and HR-unfriendly KC is?) 

I think Scherzer's stuff is lots better, and perhaps with a little more margin to lose a little stuff and still be excellent. 

Stuff-wise it's Scherzer >> Lester >> Shields.  Not really close.    The dollars will set up accordingly. 

DelMarFan

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2014, 05:36:53 pm »
Quote
I like the idea of Martin, I'm just scared about giving a 31 catcher 4-5 years.  They break down quickly and his offense this year was BABIP fueled.

It will be interesting to see what he gets.  I'd love him at three years.  Not so much at five. 

A big part of the Cubs interest will be for defense, pitcher handling, and general leadership, so if his offense declines/returns to norm it won't be too devastating.

PRCubFan

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2014, 05:41:45 pm »
4 years for Martin max.  First two years he's the undisputed starter and hopefully by year 3 Schwarber is ready and Martin can serve as a mentor.  He can also start agains tough lefties. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2014, 05:59:43 pm »
Scherzer is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is also scary in Wrigley.

Jes Beard

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2014, 06:38:37 pm »
I do really hope that the Cubs are able to get Martin. Beyond his obvious fine offensive and defensive attributes, he also brings, by all accounts, special leadership qualities. That's something the Cubs have repeatedly emphasized that they intend to look for in any additions. It's hard to imagine another position player who would be as valuable to the Cubs over the next few years.

If the Cubs sign Martin, I have no difficulty imagining that Rizzo would be every bit as valuable over the next years.  Or Soler.  Or Bryant.  Or Castro.  Or Baez.  It might be that each of those will struggle and fail, that Martin will show none of the normal wear-related decline seen in catchers, that his offensive numbers will continue to levitate after he learned how to magically elevate his BABIP this season, and that by virtue of his leadership every player on the Cub roster will gain ten pounds of grizzle in 2015.  But I still have no difficulty at least imagining at least one of those guys I named might be more valuable over the next few years.

Dave23

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2014, 06:44:13 pm »
I'm pretty confident he was referring to other FA position players this offseason...

Jes Beard

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2014, 06:52:01 pm »
I am pretty confident he did not write that.

Ron

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Re: Hot Stove 2015
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2014, 07:00:30 pm »
I'm pretty confident he was referring to other FA position players this offseason...

Yep. Very perceptive.