Author Topic: Hot Stove ‘22  (Read 4236 times)

Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #30 on: July 27, 2022, 05:51:23 am »
With Toronto interested in Happ, you wonder if they'd be open to moving one of their catchers.  Kirk is 23 and Jansen is 27, both are plus hitters (it's all power with Jansen but he has a lot of it) and solid or better defensively.  And Moreno, who's just been called up, is one of the top 5 prospects in baseball.  It's tricky because all three are contributing at the major league level and they're in a pennant race, but at some point somebody has to go to make playing time for Moreno.  I doubt we have enough to get Moreno or Kirk, but maybe something around Jansen could happen.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #31 on: July 27, 2022, 08:17:54 am »
Why would the Cubs trade Happ for a similar aged player who has 2 more years of control?

Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2022, 08:23:08 am »
Why would the Cubs trade Happ for a similar aged player who has 2 more years of control?

I'm not sure I understand the question.  Isn't two more years a good thing?

Setting that aside, there are several reasons why they might find that appealing - the first being that Jansen can catch at an average or better level, and someone has to be the starting catcher.  There's also no reason why those two guys would have to be the only players involved in any theoretical trade.

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #33 on: July 27, 2022, 08:37:03 am »
I’ll rephrase it.

What does hacing Jansen in 2023 do for the Cubs that Gomes/Higgins wouldn’t?  Maybe it gets them 1-2 extra wins? 2024 what does it do over insert cheap X player?  2025 might be the first year where 1-2 wins might really matter, at that point he’s a 30 year old catcher. Is he still league average?

The extra years of control do have value and they are worth what Happ is.  So again what is the point of trading Happ, the Cubs most valuable trade chip, for 3 years of Jansen?

Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #34 on: July 27, 2022, 09:01:23 am »
I’ll rephrase it.

What does hacing Jansen in 2023 do for the Cubs that Gomes/Higgins wouldn’t?  Maybe it gets them 1-2 extra wins? 2024 what does it do over insert cheap X player?  2025 might be the first year where 1-2 wins might really matter, at that point he’s a 30 year old catcher. Is he still league average?

The extra years of control do have value and they are worth what Happ is.  So again what is the point of trading Happ, the Cubs most valuable trade chip, for 3 years of Jansen?

Well, Jansen has 20 HRs in less than 300 PAs in '21-22.  He's at least league-average defensively at a premium position.  Happ is probably below average at a non-premium defensive position.  You don't know what Jansen is going to do as a regular starter, but that's a gamble you'd have to be willing to take.  He was a highly-regarded prospect who may be just entering his prime.

I don't see any reason to assume Jansen will decline by age 30.  He certainly has light mileage.  And who knows, maybe by 2025 the Cubs will actually be competitive.  And there's certainly a chance Jansen will be better than a league-average catcher, with his bat.

DUSTY

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #35 on: July 27, 2022, 09:04:11 am »
Isnt Miguel Amaya the new Contreras?

One has to think he's a major league option next year.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #36 on: July 27, 2022, 09:20:44 am »
Amaya has a long way to go in order to prove himself.  I certainly wouldn't count on his being an above average MLB catcher at this point.

But I see no reason to trade Happ for someone like Jansen unless the rest of the trade was substantial.

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #37 on: July 27, 2022, 10:25:28 am »
Well, Jansen has 20 HRs in less than 300 PAs in '21-22.  He's at least league-average defensively at a premium position.  Happ is probably below average at a non-premium defensive position.  You don't know what Jansen is going to do as a regular starter, but that's a gamble you'd have to be willing to take.  He was a highly-regarded prospect who may be just entering his prime.

I don't see any reason to assume Jansen will decline by age 30.  He certainly has light mileage.  And who knows, maybe by 2025 the Cubs will actually be competitive.  And there's certainly a chance Jansen will be better than a league-average catcher, with his bat.

So trading 1 1/2 years of Happ for maybe 1 of Jansen that matters? 

Dave23

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #38 on: July 27, 2022, 01:44:15 pm »
I wonder if Cleveland has any interest in bringing back Yan Gomes?

Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #39 on: July 27, 2022, 06:37:29 pm »
So trading 1 1/2 years of Happ for maybe 1 of Jansen that matters? 

What exactly does your fevered imagination tell you we're going to be able to get for Happ?  This isn't a star, by any means.  He's a pretty good player.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2022, 11:39:11 pm by Deeg »

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #40 on: July 28, 2022, 12:08:50 am »
Prospects that you will complain about because they aren’t on a top 100 list and then in a few years you’ll like?  Which will beat getting 3 years of Jensen that the Cubs won’t help the Cubs.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #41 on: July 28, 2022, 04:18:26 pm »
Lance Brozdowski
If #BlueJays were in on Benintendi, makes sense they'd be in on Ian Happ as well.

Keep an eye on RHP Nick Frasso.

23 years old, TJ surgery June 2021, 10 starts since, up to 98, slider has been tweaked, funky angles.

#Cubs had a scout in Vancouver for Frasso's start on 7/26.

I understand that team X being at player Y's start doesn't mean they're getting him if the deal is done.

But Cubs just drafted Horton off TJ, and acquired injured players at last year's deadline.

If the "let's add stuff" motto from the draft carries over, Frasso makes sense.

Also from today in the Dan Syzmborski chat
Guest: How can we expect the Cubs return for Happ to compare to Benintendi’s return? Twice as much? Three times?
Dan Szymborski: I hate multiplicatives of prospect value! It feels a bit like subtracting temperatures
Dan Szymborski: But nothing in the Benintendi trade makes me think t hey’ll get anything drastically different from what I suggested in my piece
Dan Szymborski: (which was a 45 and a couple 40s; Benintendi fetched a 40+, a 40, and an unranked)

Zach: I’ve heard a lot lately about how teams have a system that assigns value to players, similar to baseballtradevalues.com. I assume this is purely on-field production, so how does a team also value the future monetary value a player brings in based on their stardom?
 Dan Szymborski: It depends on the team, really.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have exact specifics, but I hear enough from teams that I can make educated guesses
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Most, I believe, are a bit less rigit than baseballtradevalues

Appa Yip Yip: Package around Jordan Groshans for Ian Happ make sense?
Dan Szymborski: That’s about the type of player I can see the Cubs getting a few of
12:42
Dan Szymborski: White Sox fans were mad that I cleared a chunk of their top 10 list
12:42
Dan Szymborski: but those names are only in the top 10 because the sox system is very very very weak at the top
12:43
Dan Szymborski: But Groshans/Eden/Frasso or something?

Fun with coincidences. I’m not a fan of Groshans, but that is probably what you are looking at.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cubs go for a younger, higher upside lead piece than Groshans though.

CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #42 on: July 28, 2022, 04:45:04 pm »
Andy Martino (New York reporter)
Preliminary talks can accelerate quick this time of years. One source said to keep and eye on Mets/Cubs over next 36 hours or so.

https://sny.tv/articles/sources-mets-cubs-trade-talks-still-in-preliminary-phase

No idea how reliable he is.

Mike Vasil might be a kinda interesting secondary piece.

Dave23

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #43 on: July 28, 2022, 05:20:16 pm »
Mets fans are dumb.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #44 on: July 28, 2022, 08:23:59 pm »
Hector Gomez

SOURCE: The #Padres are in serious talks with the #Nationals for a Juan Soto trade for. Talks have intensified since last night.