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Author Topic: Hot Stove ‘22  (Read 5964 times)

guest405

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #345 on: August 02, 2022, 09:47:14 pm »
I hope we keep him.

He should be our Yadier Molina.
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davep

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #346 on: August 02, 2022, 09:57:26 pm »
I think that the Padres were prepared to give the cubs an exceptional offer for Contreras and Happ - if they did not get Soto.  This put the Cubs in a difficult position.  If they waited for it to work out, they would get a great return.  But if it didn't work out, other teams that would have wanted the two players went ahead and took what was available.  And the deals went south.

But it is not as if the Cubs will get nothing in return for Contreras.  They will give a QA, and as a result, will get a draft choice after the second round, but even more important, they get the associated slot money that will run close to a million dollars.  With careful drafting such as they did this year, they could end up with the number 11 pick and in addition, a couple of Ferris-type overslot signings, which was probably worth more than what they were offered after most teams had filled their rosters.

But I hope they sign him instead.  If they can get him for no more than 5 years, I would love it.
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #347 on: August 02, 2022, 10:07:48 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on August 02, 2022, 09:39:42 pm
How enthusiastic is Willy going to be about the Cubs good faith now that he has to go into FA carrying a qualifying offer?

I know you and reb and Dave have been in sync on the depreciating impact that losing a 2nd-round pick has on FA buyers. 

I actually think that's pretty insignificant.  Teams that are signing qualifying FA's to multi-year >$100M deals don't care much about a 2nd-round draft pick.  If the Mets or Houston likes Contreras and wants to sign him for $130M, are they going to drop out because it will cost them a 2nd-round draft pick?  I don't think so. 

The cba revision, such that it's only a 2nd-round pick lost, reduces the impact, compared to prior days with 1st-round pick lost.  I think the impact is relatively insignificant.  And I certainly don't think the Cubs retaining Willson because they want to sign him will be perceived as a mean-spirited effort to undermine his market value; I think it will be perceived as an act of appreciation consistent with a desire to extend him. 
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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #348 on: August 02, 2022, 10:08:55 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on August 02, 2022, 09:39:42 pm
How enthusiastic is Willy going to be about the Cubs good faith now that he has to go into FA carrying a qualifying offer?

Sure, a QO typically is an impediment to the player but also keep in mind that a QO is a contract offer that can be accepted. The QO was $18.4 in 2022. Brandon Belt accepted his offer. Very unlikely that Contreras will accept that kind of one-year deal, but he knows it’s part of the process for really good players that a club is willing to commit to a big salary like that.

Sometimes, the QO even jump starts negotiations by establishing a benchmark for year one of a deal.

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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #349 on: August 02, 2022, 10:15:55 pm »
Quote from: craig on August 02, 2022, 09:45:59 pm
I'm hypothesizing that the failure to trade him reflects an interest in extension? 

As tico noted, if they don't envision extending him, they probably could have gotten something better than a draft pick?  (The ~#73 draft pick in next July's draft with ~ $850 slot value?)

Hoyer is an boring interview who tries to let as little information out as posssible.  He’s also a smart guy who has to realize he is going to get lit up by not trading Willson.  I think when he admitted that the next great Cub is being built on the backs of their prospects that is the closest he has come to admitting it is a rebuild. He also had the chance to blunt the criticism when he has asked about Willson.  All he had to do was say yes we will talk to him about and a lot of people would be happy.  He didn’t and instead gave a non-answer.  He also wouldn’t say it was the last time there would be a sell-off. My reading between the lines is that this isn’t done.

Getting a QO draft pick is a massive failure of managing his value. 

If the Cubs have a top 3 pick and pass on an elite talent to trade down that is a massive failure. The Cubs need a Bryant level talent in their system and they don’t have that yet.

They haven’t talked about an extension since 2017 with Willson from reports. Hoyer plays things very close to the best in his interviews.



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brjones

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #350 on: August 02, 2022, 10:21:10 pm »
Contreras sounds happy that he's still with the Cubs:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1554664630777266176

Just extend him.
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Ron

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #351 on: August 02, 2022, 10:27:20 pm »
Quote from: brjones on August 02, 2022, 10:21:10 pm
Contreras sounds happy that he's still with the Cubs:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1554664630777266176

Just extend him.

Yes, he does indeed. Thanks for sharing this. I do hope he and the Cubs will reach a deal to keep him a Cub for a number of years.
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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #352 on: August 02, 2022, 10:49:40 pm »
What I heard more than anything before the deadline—about catchers—is that contending clubs are reluctant to bring in a new #1 catcher mid-season to work with their pitching staff. Heard that time and time again.

As it turned out, this seems like the most likely explanation for the tepid offers for Contreras.

And, because it seems to be almost a truism around MLB, Hoyer erred in not recognizing how that principle would affect trying to move Contreras mid-season.

It’s also possible that Hoyer is well aware of the above and wasn’t as keen in the first place to move Contreras as everybody thought.

Maybe he really wants to keep him long-term, who knows. As CBJ notes, Hoyer really keeps things close to the vest— more so than Theo who was easier to read between the lines, I think.

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Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #353 on: August 03, 2022, 09:09:58 am »
Olney’s deadline wrap:


Quote
Chicago Cubs

Headline: "Awkward Goodbyes"

What a weird deadline for the Cubs. After spending about a month saying goodbye to Willson Contreras and Ian Happ, Chicago ends up keeping them. Happ is controllable through next season, but keeping Contreras at the deadline won't make the catcher any less of a free agent this winter. Meanwhile, the Cubs emptied out their bullpen.

Bottom line: Loser
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CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #354 on: August 03, 2022, 09:37:39 am »
We can always hope that this is one of those "the best trades are sometimes the ones you didn't make."  Hope.  Hope.
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davep

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #355 on: August 03, 2022, 09:59:51 am »
What is this obsession to have the President of the Cubs to say we are rebuilding?  Of course the Cubs are rebuilding.  They are selling their soon-to leave players and replacing them with (hopefully) soon to be productive players.  We have declined from a world series winning team to a less than 500 team.  If they aren't rebuilding, then they are idiots.

But the term "rebuilding" has become a perjorative term that means different things to different people.  Insisting or expecting the president of a team to say they are rebuilding is like expecting the president of a country to say that they are in a recession.  The terms go far beyond the actual definition and carry implicit meanings that vary from one person to another depending upon your view of the speaker.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #356 on: August 03, 2022, 10:05:00 am »
Giving a direction of the team so that fans can set their expectations accordingly would help smooth over a lot of the hard feelings. 
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Playtwo

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #357 on: August 03, 2022, 10:11:32 am »
Might not do much for the players though.
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davep

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #358 on: August 03, 2022, 10:21:15 am »
He has given direction to the fans. 

He has turned short term assets into long term assets.  He has upgraded the infrastructure for both pitching and hitting, and brought in new staff that are foreward looking specialists in their fields.  He stuffed the lower level of the farm system with hitting prospects, and followed that by concentrating in bringing near ready pitching to the higher levels.  He brought in two high cost free agents last winter, and has indicated that he will add one or two more this winter.  If you are not able to set your expectations from that, you aren't paying attention.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove ‘22
« Reply #359 on: August 03, 2022, 10:21:37 am »
How did the lack of clarity affect Happ and Contreras?  Willson is now going to have 2 more months of the long good buy. 
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