Author Topic: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)  (Read 31350 times)

packrat

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1275 on: July 27, 2014, 10:21:40 pm »

Noonan is quite critical of Cutler.  I'm not sure that I would agree with him.

By PaulNoonan  @BadgerNoonan  on Jul 27 2014, 1:00p  26 

APC looks at the Bears' offseason and tries to project Jay Cutler's play in 2014 to see if they have made enough improvements to surpass the Packers as the best team in the NFC Nort

I've seen a lot of people picking the Chicago Bears to upend the Green Bay Packers as the best team in the NFC North this season. I dare say that they have become one of those offseason darlings seized on by pundits in an attempt to prove how smart they are. After all, we all know SOME teams that didn't make the playoffs last year will jump up and the Bears showed a brilliant offense, which is really half the battle. The Bears' big problem was on defense and they at least partially addressed this by adding Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen to the mix. With some additional luck in the health department, I can understand how many people are seeing a decent defense there if they squint really hard.

The thing is, they failed to address their single biggest defensive flaw: Safety.*


 

*And the back half of the defense in general. The Bears did draft Kyle Fuller to play corner, but they're still relying heavily on the Tillman-Briggs combo in addition to the also aged and injury-prone DJ Williams, and newly acquired Adrian Wilson, who we will get to in just a second.

Defense

Safety has become more and more important to a team's defense in recent years for a few reasons. As defenses have adjusted to pass-heavy offenses many teams have started focusing more on power running. The Patriots are basically a power running team at this point. The Seahawks behind Marshawn Lynch are more or less pioneers in this area. Even the Packers are well-equipped to get tough yards inside. It's very important to have talented safeties because on many occasions they will have to serve as linebackers while still being effective in coverage. I'm sure I don't have to tell it to Packer fans as the only team that might have been worse at the position was the Chicago Bears. The Packers are addressing this problem with highly regarded first round pick Haha Clinton-Dix and by converting the surprisingly athletic Micah Hyde (who ranks 7th on Football Outsiders 2014 "breakout prospects" list").

The Bears addressed this with former Packer M.D. Jennings, some journeymen, lower draft picks, and the aged Adrian Wilson, fresh off missing an entire season due to Haglund's Deformity.*

*Rotoworld says "Haglund's deformity is most common in women. It's a bony enlargement on the back of the heel near the Achilles' tendon that often leads to bursitis, a painful inflammation of the bursa sac. It becomes irritated when rubbing against shoes. Wilson is competing for a roster spot in a wide-open Bears safety group." And that's all I have to say about that.

Wilson is the big name, but he wasn't even good for the Cardinals two years ago, ranking 57th at the position per Pro Football Focus. I'm not arguing that the Bears didn't get better on defense, as they most certainly did. Pro Football Focus had the Bears as by far the worst defensive team in all of football last season and they did acquire better talent in the front four and should see a bounce just based on luck. However, the fact is that the linebackers are either ancient or lack talent and this problem only increases as you get into the secondary. They improved, but not enough.

Offense

Marc Trestman has a reputation as a great developer of quarterbacks and his work with Josh McCown last year speaks to just how good he can be. Evan Silva of Rotoworld (and a bunch of other people, but I saw it there first) refer to him as "the Quarterback Whisperer." Where the Packers struggled mightily without their MVP, the Bears actually improved greatly under Josh McCown, and that's going to be a problem in 2014 because McCown is gone.

Before I get into this I want to state upfront that I think Jay Cutler is a better quarterback than Josh McCown and that I would project Cutler to outperform McCown this year even if both still played for the Bears, but the fact is that Josh McCown was much better than Cutler last season.

The Bear QBs combined to have 579 passing attempts last year. If you prorate out both Cutler and McCown's raw numbers so that each has 579 attempts they look like this:

Cutler - 365 completions, 4,275 yards, 31 TDs 20 picks.
McCown - 385 completions, 4,728 yards, 34 TDs, 3 picks.

This is a bit simplistic, as it doesn't account for things like the defenses they faced or their efficiency, but it helps put on display just how much better McCown was. And hey, if you like adjusting for strength of schedule and efficiency:

Football Outsiders DVOA
Cutler - 5.5% (13th overall)
McCown - 32.1% (4th overall)

Pro Football Focus also rated McCown higher (17.9 to 15.2) even though McCown had 144 fewer dropbacks. (Pro Football Focus scores are counting stats to a large extent.)

The fact is that because of Josh McCown, the Bears got exceptional quarterback play last season. Jay Cutler wasn't bad, but he was more in line with what we expect from Jay Cutler, quarterback whispering be damned.*

*While I have no statistics to back up what I am about to say, it is my professional opinion that Jay Cutler is basically an uncoachable dumbass, and will continue to be exactly what he is for the rest of his career.

The position is likely to take a step back as Cutler is likely to be Cutler, and the backups in camp are Jordan Palmer and Jimmy Clausen. If Jay Cutler misses time (and in the last four seasons Jay Cutler has missed at least some time) there will almost certainly be a huge dropoff.

A lot of people are predicting the Bears to take a step forward on offense with Cutler having had another year under Trestman to learn the system. On the other hand, I think it's much more likely that the Cutler/McCown duo collectively overachieved last year, that regression to the mean will bring the offense down to earth a bit, and if Cutler misses time he misses more than just a bit. Cutler is 31 years old. How many 31-year-olds have you seen take a big leap at the quarterback position?

Quarterback is one of the most important positions in any sport, and the marginal gains that the Bears make on defense are likely to be offset by a decline in quarterback play simply because quarterback play is so valuable. I like them as the second best team in the division, but it's going to take a bigger defensive overhaul before they are ready to unseat the Packers.


Pekin

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1276 on: July 27, 2014, 10:55:11 pm »
McCown played against some weak ass defenses.  I trust Emery and Trestman's judgement on who the better QB is.

I also think the Bears defense is going to take a huge step forward this year.  It really comes down to injuries for both teams.  Either team loses their QB for long they are done. 

Jackiejokeman

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1277 on: July 28, 2014, 12:53:48 am »
 
 And there aint no turnin back.

WshflThinking

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1278 on: July 28, 2014, 06:57:59 am »
I heard some discussion on the radio yesterday. They were discussing the supposed 5 playoff teams from last year that wont make the playoffs this year. The one that caught my attention was the Packers. And were the Pack not make the playoffs who would make the playoffs from the North.  ;D ;D

Keysbear

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1279 on: July 28, 2014, 07:57:29 am »
Noonan is quite critical of Cutler.  I'm not sure that I would agree with him.

By PaulNoonan  @BadgerNoonan  on Jul 27 2014, 1:00p  26 

The fact is that because of Josh McCown, the Bears got exceptional quarterback play last season. Jay Cutler wasn't bad, but he was more in line with what we expect from Jay Cutler, quarterback whispering be damned.*

*While I have no statistics to back up what I am about to say, it is my professional opinion that Jay Cutler is basically an uncoachable dumbass, and will continue to be exactly what he is for the rest of his career.


 This tells you all you need to know about the writer. There is no reason to bother to read anything he says. Cutler sucks because I say so? This is what passes for intelligent sports writing these days? Pathetic.


*While I have no statistics to back up what I am about to say, it is my professional opinion that Jay Cutler is basically an uncoachable dumbass, and will continue to be exactly what he is for the rest of his career.




BearHit

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1280 on: July 28, 2014, 08:31:27 am »
He'd make a good politician - no doubt

otto105

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1281 on: July 28, 2014, 04:44:58 pm »
The Packers own this division.


packrat

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1282 on: July 28, 2014, 07:41:50 pm »
I heard some discussion on the radio yesterday. They were discussing the supposed 5 playoff teams from last year that wont make the playoffs this year. The one that caught my attention was the Packers. And were the Pack not make the playoffs who would make the playoffs from the North.  ;D ;D

Do you agree?

WshflThinking

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1283 on: July 28, 2014, 09:49:17 pm »
I am not qualified to answer that but the people discussing it seemed knowledgeable enough to do it

navigator

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1284 on: July 29, 2014, 07:47:38 am »
I think the Pack and the Bears have a real good chance to make the playoffs this year.

packrat

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1285 on: July 29, 2014, 07:18:49 pm »
I agree with that.

packrat

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1286 on: July 29, 2014, 08:21:53 pm »
Julius Peppers' viewpoint.

Packers Training Camp

Photo/Mark Hoffman


THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO PACKERS TRAINING CAMP: Basics, practice times, where to watch, more
 

Green Bay — If he was feeling the weight of the entire Chicago Bears defense on his shoulders last season, Julius Peppers wouldn't say Monday.

Standing in front of his locker facing a large media gathering that he still doesn't know very well, Peppers hesitated when asked whether there was a different feeling being with the Green Bay Packers.

Does it seem like you're part of a defense here instead of being the guy expected to carry one in Chicago?

"You know, it was a different situation over there," Peppers said after the Packers practiced in pads for the first time. "I don't want to get into comparisons about here vs. there. It's a totally new situation and environment.

"I'm happy to be here and I'm excited to do what they want me to do here. It's not about what I've done in the past; it's about what they want me to do this year."

Therein lies the reason Peppers is standing in the Packers locker room following his release from Chicago. The Packers want Peppers to play a different position than he played with the Bears and complement their defensive star, Clay Matthews, not outplay him.

Peppers agreed to a three-year, $27 million deal that allows the Packers to back out with a manageable deficit if things don't work out this season. Peppers, 34, will make $8.5 million this year, but his salary cap number is only $3.5 million — about $15 million less than what it was scheduled to be in Chicago.

If the Packers cut him after this season, the salary cap hit for 2015 would be a reasonable $5 million.

They persuaded him to take that deal with a player-friendly practice schedule, an opportunity to move from end to outside linebacker and the possibility of winning a Super Bowl ring. The latter has evaded Peppers since the Carolina Panthers drafted him second overall in 2002.

Then there's that thing about expectations. Here, he's not the $91 million man he was in Chicago.

"It's never really been that," Peppers said of needing to carry a defense on his shoulders. "Some people have made it out to be that way at different times, but it's 11 guys on the field always, so everybody has to do their part.

"What I will say is that we have a very talented group of guys on the field here, a lot of depth on the second and third teams, so it's nice to look around and see that much talent."

Since signing with the Packers on March 15, Peppers has been playing outside in coordinator Dom Capers' 3-4 defense, doing things like rushing from an upright position, dropping into coverage and covering tight ends. Peppers expressed an interest in playing outside in a 3-4 after the Bears cut him and in the first three days of training camp that's all he's done.

At 6 feet 7 inches and 287 pounds, Peppers is an imposing figure on the outside. His wingspan is enormous and he uses it to his advantage both as a pass rusher and a pass defender. In the twilight of his career, he's not the player he once was, but he's hoping to find new life in a new defense.

"It's fun," Peppers said. "I'm actually having a lot of fun. I'm enjoying it. It's a little different than what I've been used to in the past. I actually think it fits my skill set better than just being down every play."

Peppers showed off Monday some of the pass-rush skill that has netted him 118½ sacks in 12 seasons. He got his arms inside tackle Derek Sherrod during a team drill and drove him back with a bull-rush that would have resulted in a sack.

But he also showed his age when a younger Bryan Bulaga stoned him on a pair of turns in the one-on-one pass-rush drill. He still has a lot to learn about playing pass coverage, too.

But players have been impressed with his physical ability.

"Julius is everything they made him out to be," linebacker Mike Neal said. "People say he's lost a step, but look at what he was doing in Chicago, 295 pounds, playing 1,000-plus snaps (actually 800-plus). You see him now, he's not taking as many reps, he's a little bit leaner and he's moving around phenomenally well."

He's coming off a year that many people thought was subpar. He played an astounding 81% of the snaps for the Bears but managed just 7½ sacks and two forced fumbles. He had a chance to put the Bears in the playoffs, but got cut by Packers fullback John Kuhn a second before he was going to sack quarterback Aaron Rodgers and end Green Bay's comeback hopes in a winner-take-all game in Week 17 at Soldier Field.

Maybe this is new life for him?

"You look at my last year," Peppers said. "Was it one of my better years? Probably not, you know, statistically. But if you compare it to a lot of the guys who played last year, it was better than a lot of guys. So, I don't really think I need to revitalize anything, just improve upon what I did last year. That's not going to be easy to do. I should be able to do it."

There are two areas where the Packers are hoping Peppers can cause the most trouble.

The first is lining up outside in a stance that won't reveal whether he's going to rush the passer or drop into coverage. It's critical for a quarterback to know if Peppers is rushing because you don't want to leave him unblocked or the responsibility of a running back.

"That's more of the issue of what you need to pay attention to," quarterback Matt Flynn said. "Once he drops into the coverage, you think of him as another defender. But pre-snap and all that, you have to make that decision whether he's coming or not. You always have to account for him wherever he's lined up."

The other area Peppers can affect is the short passing game. When he drops into coverage he has such a long wingspan that a quarterback's window to a receiver might be a lot tighter than he wants.

"I'm not surprised, but the way he's played in space has been impressive," coach Mike McCarthy said. "For any quarterback that has the out-breaking throw or you throw the hook and you have the flat defender, when (it's) a man of his range, that's a different throw.

"He's here to go towards the quarterback, we all understand that, but when he does drop he has great ability and range."

The Packers are hoping he can affect those two parts of the game and more. But they aren't expecting him to carry the defense.

dallasbear

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1287 on: July 30, 2014, 10:22:49 am »
"You know, it was a different situation over there," Peppers said after the Packers practiced in pads for the first time. "I don't want to get into comparisons about here vs. there. It's a totally new situation and environment.

"I'm happy to be here and I'm excited to do what they want me to do here. It's not about what I've done in the past; it's about what they want me to do this year."


Classy response.

Therein lies the reason Peppers is standing in the Packers locker room following his release from Chicago. The Packers want Peppers to play a different position than he played with the Bears and complement their defensive star, Clay Matthews, not outplay him.


The reason he's standing in the Packers locker room is he was projected to make way too much money based on his performance in 2013.  And I don't think Peppers cares about outplaying or complementing anybody else - he's going to his job.

Whether that is good enough we'll just have to see - what will Packer nation say when Peppers puts up one tackle games.

boogie

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1288 on: July 30, 2014, 10:43:47 am »
Um we would have been doing cart wheels if he had 1 tackle games.  How about NO STATS games???  And you can say he wants to do his job, but he sure didn't "do his job" last year with the Bears.  For how many games???

dallasbear

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Re: NFC North (04.12.11 - 09.10.15)
« Reply #1289 on: July 30, 2014, 11:02:36 am »

Looking at the 2013 stats - Peppers had 3 zero tackle games and 6  one tackle games.

Incredible!