Bleacher Bums Forum

I think his days in AA are over.

I would prefer to see Russell start in AA.  He's 21 ... I see no reason to be so aggressive.  Let him dominate AA ... it would be nice if after rushing Baez .. and in my opinion they did rush him ... that they take their time with Russell.  ETA in mid-2016 if everything goes well.  Dominate for half a season in AA ... IF that happens ... he goes to AAA.  If he excels in @ 400ABs ... up with the Cubs.  Also ... I am not very familiar with baseball contracts ... so perhaps this isn't relevant .. but if Russell and Bryant start their MLB service time in the same season .... won't their contracts be up in the same season?  Wouldnt staggering expiring contracts be a good idea ... assuming both players become impact guys?

Yeah, Russell probably is a starter in major leagues in 2015 for a number of organizations.

Could be with Cubs too but other things might have to happen with other guys:

... if Bryant doesn't look good at 3B and moves to OF, opening for Russell.

... if Baez struggles with contact issues and isn't starting in majors, opening for Russell.

... if Cubs look to make mid-season major trade (Hamels?) and ready to deal Castro mid-season, opening for Russell.

... if a starting IFer gets hurt, opening for Russell.

... if Cubs are clearly a 2015 contender by mid-season and brass feels that Russell in majors in some capacity clearly improves the club for a post-season run, opening for Russell. For service time issues, don't see just a September call-up for Russell.  If he comes up, likely would be much earlier.

Otherwise, possible scenario is that Russell situation is a 2016 redux of Bryant/2015:  a few weeks back in minors for service time issues and an early 2016 call-up.

I agree.  There are probably exceptions, but I don't think most high impact prospects should be promoted until they dominate their league, regardless of age and experience.  In my opinion, more prospects are hurt by being rushed than are hurt by being promoted too slowly.

I'm always the cautious one, but I don't see this really being Russell's time yet.  He was an .850-OPS guy in 60 AA games.  Scouts like him, .850-OPS is pretty good, and he's got no major cautions.  But I don't think an .850-OPS guy in AA is so dominant that it proves that he's ready to be big-league good right now.   

If he can sustain or improve on that, great.  But it's not like 50-games of .850 will necessary stay that good if he plays another 50 games in AA (guys go up and down all the time.)  So sustaining at at least that level of excellence seems desirable.  And improving seems pretty desirable, too.  The premise with "he's only 21", "he's only 22" is that young guys are supposed to keep improving faster than their level of competition.  Sometimes they do, but it's not rare when they don't.  If he goes up to PCL and struggles like Baez with a PCL-mediocre low-.800's OPS, people will want to promote him because he's Addison Russell, touted prospect.  But guys who are really big-league ready ought to be sustaining pretty high production numbers in that league if they're ready.  Hope he does produce great and is ready soon. 

As we've discussed before, Baez crushed AAA from mid-May to his early August call-up.  Don't think his major league woes had much of anything to do with lack of additional minor league seasoning.  His flaws were exposed at major league level.  Doubt that another few hundred or whatever pre call-up AAA at bats would have prepared him any better. Just had to see big league pitching and try to adjust going forward.

Think the "domination" of minors is way overrated.  Think it's rare that a position player prospect is hurt long-term by an "early" call-up.  Some guys (B. Jackson, Vitters) just get exposed in majors and never adjust and other guys only get so far because of significant flaws in approach or pitch recognition (C. Patterson). Don't think there is any evidence that Patterson was hurt by his call-up.  Actually had best season at age 23.

Some guys are just best suited by exposure to big league pitching without first "dominating" their previous level.  Ron Santo was called up mid-season from AAA with a 268-351-412 line.  He was ready to go and compete in majors at age 20.  Sandberg's last AAA season was a .749 OPS season.  Maybe he doesn't reach top form in 1984 without the 1,400 plate appearances he had in majors in 1982 and 1983.  Why wait for a "domination" AAA season.

Don't think anybody is "hurt" by staying in minors longer:  but it's just a waste of time for some guys.  Is wasting your time being "hurt?"  Maybe.

Think pitchers are a bit different.  Takes a bulldog mentality to face major league hitters and there is an injury risk of course for pitchers.  Don't think pitchers have to "dominate" either but show they won't be scared and know what they're doing on the mound.

I think just the opposite.  Confidence is often the difference between a successful major leaguer and a failure.  Anyone that is rated that highly in AAA is likely to have the talent to succeed.  An early call up can be ruinous to that confidence for a kid that is not mentally or physically ready for the top competition.  A three month success is hardly enough for most players to establish themselves in any league.  A batting average of .278 with greater than 25% strikeout rate is hardly a sign that he had mastered the competition level in the various minor league levels.

Hopefully, the Cubs MLB team will be good enough in the future that they don't have to move

Kiley McDaniel did a July 2 update.  The Cubs aren't linked to any of the top 5 guys.  Heredia, who was linked to the Cubs, is being mentioned as a likely Dodger target now.  It would be interesting to see if the Cubs are still going over or if they will hold off. 

He mentions 5 teams will likely go over, the Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Blue Jays are mentioned in the article as likely to go over.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/