Author Topic: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)  (Read 142119 times)

Playtwo

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2013, 02:17:10 pm »
Thanks, Dave.  Soler isn't far from dominating offensively at Daytona.  While I wouldn't want to rush him to AA, I could envision a promotion this season if he continues to perform this well (or better).

StrikeZone

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2013, 02:18:05 pm »
I love how people continue to protest Vogelbach as a DH that can really hit and nothing more.  It's getting comical at this point, like someone is insulting their mother when anyone suggests he's never going to be anything but a DH or part-time first baseman.

And then you can start a countdown to when someone will bring out an old player that played first or left field and didn't move very well.

You can set your watch to it.

DelMarFan

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2013, 02:25:06 pm »
John Kruk ain't no athlete, either.

Jes Beard

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2013, 03:05:34 pm »
Not sure if posting this is a good idea or not, but Keith Law still sees Vogelbach as a DH only in today's chat.
Jack (Toronto)

Keith, do you think Vogelbach's bat will continue to develop, or will his body type hold him back?

Klaw:

Body type absolutely limits his ceiling. DH only.


Perfectly illustrates the point I have been making for some time about Vogelbach -- that many dismiss him and unrealistically downgrade their rating of him based on on performance, but on the fact that he is heavy.  And right now some here seem eager to jump on a couple of errors as a basis for justifying that belief.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2013, 03:08:52 pm by Jes Beard »

davep

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2013, 03:34:58 pm »
I love how people continue to protest Vogelbach as a DH that can really hit and nothing more.  It's getting comical at this point, like someone is insulting their mother when anyone suggests he's never going to be anything but a DH or part-time first baseman.

And then you can start a countdown to when someone will bring out an old player that played first or left field and didn't move very well.

You can set your watch to it.

I'm not sure what your point is.  If someone says that a player can not play first base well enough to be a regular there, and someone else points out some others that were just as bad or worse, but still played first base well enough to be a regular, isn't that a valid point?

Certainly, it boils down to whether his bat is good enough to overcome any defensive weaknesses.  But there HAVE been some players whose bat WAS good enough to overcome similar defensive weaknesses, so ruling him out on that basis alone is foolish.

Chris27

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2013, 04:02:29 pm »
Quote
that many dismiss him and unrealistically downgrade their rating of him based on on performance, but on the fact that he is heavy.

His quote aside, Law has watched Vogelbach several times this year and last. I don't necessarily trust Law, but other observers have tweeted similar comments about V-bach's defense this year.

Ron

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2013, 04:23:42 pm »
Time will tell about Vogelbach's defense.  Frankly the only opinions that matter at this point are the Cub evaluators. And they are in a far better position to judge that than anyone who has seen him only sporadically (such as Law).  If they don't believe he can play adequate defense, then the opinion of evaluators from other teams will matter. 

StrikeZone

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2013, 04:28:29 pm »
I'm not sure what your point is.  If someone says that a player can not play first base well enough to be a regular there, and someone else points out some others that were just as bad or worse, but still played first base well enough to be a regular, isn't that a valid point?

Certainly, it boils down to whether his bat is good enough to overcome any defensive weaknesses.  But there HAVE been some players whose bat WAS good enough to overcome similar defensive weaknesses, so ruling him out on that basis alone is foolish.

No, it isn't because the only thing that matters is whether or not Daniel Vogelbach is a good enough athlete to play first base and the overwhelmingly consensus opinion is that he isn't.  The only differing opinion is that he MIGHT be able to play first base a little bit, on occasion.

However, some fans and message board "experts" seem to think, for some reason, that he can not only play first, but left field, third base and even CATCHER because some fat slob in bygone years played there.

Whenever an actual professional writer, scout, GM, or some other person with inside and/or first-hand knowledge points out that the dude just isn't gonna be a successful defender on an every day basis, some fan will drag up some sloth that used to spend some time at a defensive position a million years ago without pointing out the circumstances surrounding that sloth's employment.

Ron Coomer, for instance.  Let's just look at him, shall we?  When he was with the Twins, he was an All-Star!  Surely, if a weak hitter like him could play first or even third base then a masher like Vogelbach can play first base!  Well, no, actually, Coomer was an excellent fielder as a first baseman and a below average third baseman but he wasn't so bad that he was a joke over there early in his Major League career.  He may not have had Keith Hernandez-like range at first base but he had soft hands over there and he didn't kick a whole lot of ground balls.

Also, the Twins were a small market team and didn't have any high priced players on those teams, to my recollection.  In the years that Coomer was playing first and third for them, they finished no higher than fourth in the AL Central.  Ron Coomer isn't a positive argument for fat dudes, IMO, as his highest OPS+ was 111 and that was in 253 PAs.

OK, John Kruk.  He was fat.  He was a good hitter.  He was no gold glove fielder.  He is an idiot.  Vogelbach can't possibly be any worse than Kruk!  Well, I'll give you that Vogelbach can't be dumber than Kruk.  That's a fair point, for sure.   But, as JR pointed out, Vogelbach is simply a butcher in the field.  Kruk may not have been a gold glover but he wasn't a stone gloved hack, either.

Frankly, I still believe all this arguing is moot.  I maintain that the National League will have the DH in a few years and everyone will be able to exhale and stop kvetching about Vogelbach and his oafish defending.

Playtwo

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #23 on: May 10, 2013, 04:38:32 pm »
Being fat is not necessarily an irreversible condition.  If he can get himself into better shape physically, his athleticism will likely improve.  Perhaps not enough to play the field, but who knows?

DelMarFan

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2013, 05:17:47 pm »
I wonder what Kruk's minor league defensive numbers were like.

The arguing is silly.  It's a problem for a couple of years down the road, not now.

Jes Beard

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #25 on: May 10, 2013, 05:52:22 pm »
Time will tell about Vogelbach's defense.  Frankly the only opinions that matter at this point are the Cub evaluators. And they are in a far better position to judge that than anyone who has seen him only sporadically (such as Law).   

This one of the reasons I have posted this before, and post it again, because it reflect the opinion of someone who watched Vogelbach during nearly every home game in Boise last year.

From: Jes Beard <jesbeard@usa.net>
To: "Langrill, Chris" <clangrill@idahostatesman.com>
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 5:02 PM
Subject: Re: Boise Hawks question

Thanks for the response.

I genuinely appreciate it.

One of the things I liked about Vogelbach as soon as I read about him after the Cubs drafted him was seeing that he made the decision on his own after his Junior year in HS to start shaping up and losing weight.  Here he was, obviously a star athlete in HS, despite his weight, and he decided to lose weight, and then did so, on his own, at a time when it would have been far easier to rest on his laurels and continued as a star athlete, without the work involved in dropping those pounds.

By the way, I understand that he continued losing weight and was down to 232 when he reported to camp for spring training.

Between that dedication, his approach at the plate, and the leadership qualities you mention, he is a guy I really hope the Cubs hold onto, and playing him in LF for a few years, may be the only real way to do it.

Again, thanks for the response.

On 2/11/2013 4:08 PM, Langrill, Chris wrote:
> Jes ... Sorry ... I am off on Sundays, an it looks like your last email came on a Sunday, and I passed it by somehow ...
>
> As for Vogelbach ... I wouldn't put it past him to play left field ... I specifically talked to him about his athleticism, and he takes pride in being more agile than people give him credit for ... I think he has the athleticism, but just needs more work with his glove more than anything ...
>
> That said, he never was even discussed in an OF role, as far as I know ...
>
> I do know that he was a team leader who seemed to be largely responsible for changing the team's attitude and leading Boise to the postseason ... could very well have been named league MVP if they split the season into two halves ...
>
> Bottom line: I'm a Cubs fan on the side, too, and I'd like to see them find a place for Vogelbach in the organization moving forward ...
>
> Thanks for writing and sorry for the delay in responding ...
>
> Chris
>
>
>
> On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 1:56 PM, Jes Beard <jesbeard@usa.net> wrote:
>
>     Since I didn't see any response from either of you when I sent this question just more than a week ago, I thought I would send it again.
>     ********************************
>
>     I am writing you two as a Cubs fan, knowing that the two of you provided the primary coverage of the Boise Hawks for your newspaper.
>
>     Your personal and direct observations of Dan Vogelbach, and your discussions with those on and around the team, would likely give you considerably more insight into his future than my review of his batting stats, looking at a couple of limited video clips online, and seeing the occasional feature on Vogelbach or scouting report from an online publication where the person writing the report likely never actually saw him play.
>
>     The consensus  clearly is that Vogelbach is a bat first prospect, someone who will go as far as his bat carries him, reaching the majors if he hits, and not reaching the majors based on his other tools.
>
>     The question about Vogelbach on which I was hoping each of you might shed some light is whether there is any real possibility Vogelbach might in the future be able to acceptably play OF, at least LF.
>
>     Many of the online prospect sites have essentially written him off as never under any circumstances being able to play OF, that he scarcely is able to play 1BF, and that his future is almost certainly going to be as a DH.
>
>     As a Cub fan, well aware of the fact that Anthony Rizzo is most likely to be at 1B for the Cubs at the major league level for years to come, I am wondering what Vogelbach's future might be -- a move to LF, or as trade bait.
>
>     So what of Vogelbach?  Did you ever see him practice in the OF? Does his size or lack of speed or agility appear so sever that he would never be able to play LF?  Did anyone ever discuss the possibility of actually trying him in LF sometime in the future?
>
>     Thanks in advance for any insight you might share.
>
>     --
>     Jes Beard

davep

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #26 on: May 10, 2013, 06:10:08 pm »
the overwhelmingly consensus opinion is that he isn't.  The only differing opinion is that he MIGHT be able to play first base a little bit, on occasion.


Keith Law, and John Arguello, who quotes Keith Law, are not an overwhelming consensus.

And even though there may be some on the board that think that Vogelbach could play third, left, or even catcher, is not the issue.  The issue is, is Vogelbach ONLY able to be a DH, due to his body type.  Since there have been others with his body type that DID play first base on a regular basis, no rational person can rule him out ONLY because of his body type.

Of course, the emphasis has to be on the term rational.

brjones

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #27 on: May 10, 2013, 06:31:28 pm »
There was another question later in the Law chat that referenced comparisons to Fielder or Sandoval, and Law seemed to confirm that it wasn't really a size issue for Vogelbach.  It's more that he's just not in the same class as players like Fielder and Sandoval in the athleticism department. 

Bottom line...it's not just that Vogelbach is big, it's that he's big and lacks the athleticism to play passable defense at any size.  At least that's Law's take.

Chris27

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #28 on: May 10, 2013, 06:38:50 pm »
Cecil Fielder had zero athleticism or range and played 1st for quite a while.

davep

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Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
« Reply #29 on: May 10, 2013, 06:44:43 pm »
I don't believe anyone here has said that Vogelbach is in the same class as Fielder and Sandoval in the athleticism department.  But it doesn't make much sense to say that because he can't be great, it follows that he must be terrible.  There is a spectrum in defense, just as in any other area.  Law, and those who quote Law, are the only ones saying that he is a DH only.

Looking back at the previous posts, I can't find where JR pointed out that Vogelbach is a butcher in the field.  He did point out that he has made 5 errors in 29 games, but who would be foolish enough to conclude butcherhood on the basis or 29 games?